Paris-Roubaix 2025, one day monument, April 13 (men)

[Berniece]

This talk again... tell me a non cobbles specialist who does/did great in RVV and PR (in last 15 years)? Only two names, Pogacar and Gilbert.

Valverde, not prepared properly, just rode it since he wanted to do it at least once. Finished 8th.

 

[Barkintheeye]

Let's be honest: nobody wants to face the reality that cobbles' specialists are vastly overrated.

If that holds true on a rainy day at P-R I will be massively surprised. Wout and Mathieu have tons of more experience of riding in difficult conditions. We saw Pog vipe out at Strade while Piddles stayed upright. A truly epic P-R is only for the best bike handlers.

 

[search]

Alaphilippe looked strong in his first Ronde as well, I'd say, eventhough he crashed out.

But Roubaix is obviously a different story. Currently Pogacar is 2nd favorite with the bookmakers. I don't think this is an underappreciation - more on the contrary.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Non-cobbles specialists, in particular GT riders, tend to see cobbled races as crash prone events that may get in the way to their primary season goals, so they just don't show up.

They don't show up because they know they can't be competitive so why risk your GT ambitions to get a top10 in the best case scenario?

 

[Brullnux]

Valverde, not prepared properly, just rode it since he wanted to do it at least once. Finished 8th.

Valverde is an exception, though, he won Liege four times and Fleche five times. He was the best hilly rider of his generation, it's natural that he'd also do well at Ronde. We can look at Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski, though, for someone who never quite cracked Ronde despite trying a few times. Kwiat did win E3 though, which yeah is evidence that if you're an exceptional late April classics rider then you can also do well in March.

 

[Peyroteo94]

but at Roubaix the tactics might work against Pog. there are stretches of asphalt where riders can attack, he cannot cover all the moves, if Trek or Alpecin have 2 riders there, he'll have too many to deal with, unless Wellens and Politt are sent in the break

It is the opposite. Tactics can help Pogacar. He is not the hot favorite and his team even without Wellens is full of strong powerhorses.
Politt and Vermeersch are flying so they will help him a lot. Pogacar just needs luck to not have any setback (him and his teammates). Unfortunately in Ronde, he wasn't lucky with his team but luck is not always against you.

 

[search]

Valverde is an exception, though, he won Liege four times and Fleche five times. He was the best hilly rider of his generation, it's natural that he'd also do well at Ronde. We can look at Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski, though, for someone who never quite cracked Ronde despite trying a few times. Kwiat did win E3 though, which yeah is evidence that if you're an exceptional late April classics rider then you can also do well in March.

I would say guys like Powless or Jorgenson count as well. They may not be GT-type GC riders, but still came from a very different background before they developed into cobble specialists.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Valverde is an exception, though, he won Liege four times and Fleche five times. He was the best hilly rider of his generation, it's natural that he'd also do well at Ronde. We can look at Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski, though, for someone who never quite cracked Ronde despite trying a few times. Kwiat did win E3 though, which yeah is evidence that if you're an exceptional late April classics rider then you can also do well in March.

Valverde got a 8th in a very weak Ronde without being close to win. This Ronde also had probably the worst winner since the new route was introduced. Thomas wasn't a GT contender when he won E3 and he also wasn't competitive in RVV.

 

[pastronef]

Valverde got a 8th in a very weak Ronde without being close to win. This Ronde also had probably the worst winner since the new route was introduced. Thomas wasn't a GT contender when he won E3 and he also wasn't competitive in RVV.

let's say he's alone in the main group before Cysoing or before Champin, on the tarmac, and one Trek/Alpecin attack on the flat, he cannot chase them all.

 

[Berniece]

Valverde is an exception, though, he won Liege four times and Fleche five times. He was the best hilly rider of his generation, it's natural that he'd also do well at Ronde. We can look at Alaphilippe and Kwiatkowski, though, for someone who never quite cracked Ronde despite trying a few times. Kwiat did win E3 though, which yeah is evidence that if you're an exceptional late April classics rider then you can also do well in March.

And Alaphilippe was very unlucky with that motor crash, might have even been the strongest in the race. There are enough cases to be made of non-specialized riders that do well on the cobbles of RVV and Roubaix.

 

[Brullnux]

Valverde got a 8th in a very weak Ronde without being close to win. This Ronde also had probably the worst winner since the new route was introduced. Thomas wasn't a GT contender when he won E3 and he also wasn't competitive in RVV.

It was no weaker than the year before, you just don't rate the winner, but the field was basically identical. You shouldn't judge the strength of a one day race on the winner (besides, Bettiol was like 1km from finishing 2nd last year too).

Valverde followed wheels and did well. If he had ever focused on it fully he may have once fought for the win, but he didn't as he had races he was guaranteed to do well in a few weeks later. This doesn't hurry your point that non cobbled specialists rarely do well in cobbled races, since Valverde was a freak of nature anyway.

 

[Brullnux]

And Alaphilippe was very unlucky with that motor crash, might have even been the strongest in the race. There are enough cases to be made of non-specialized riders that do well on the cobbles of RVV and Roubaix.

If you're elite in hilly classics then you can do well in RVV/E3, for sure. It would be strange if you couldn't as there is a lot of crossover between the basic aerobic/anaerobic efforts of both. But I don't think that means 'cobbled specialists' are overrated.

 

[Berniece]

Valverde followed wheels and did well. If he had ever focused on it fully he may have once fought for the win, but he didn't as he had races he was guaranteed to do well in a few weeks later. This doesn't hurry your point that non cobbled specialists rarely do well in cobbled races, since Valverde was a freak of nature anyway.

There's a quote from Thijs Zonneveld that if Valverde was born in Belgium he would've won RVV 4 times. Which is probably true, he never really cared about the race in his career. Which is a shame, because if he had the curiosity of Pogacar he could've had a much more diverse palmares.

 

[Salvarani]

I would say guys like Powless or Jorgenson count as well. They may not be GT-type GC riders, but still came from a very different background before they developed into cobble specialists.

Wouldnt say they are specialists. All-round and great riders.

 

[Salvarani]

It was no weaker than the year before, you just don't rate the winner, but the field was basically identical. You shouldn't judge the strength of a one day race on the winner (besides, Bettiol was like 1km from finishing 2nd last year too).

Valverde followed wheels and did well. If he had ever focused on it fully he may have once fought for the win, but he didn't as he had races he was guaranteed to do well in a few weeks later. This doesn't hurry your point that non cobbled specialists rarely do well in cobbled races, since Valverde was a freak of nature anyway.

Valverde was a great rider and is a legend. They tend do well wherever they go.

An era of great riders and legends just avoided the cobbles. Not that everyone would have done well, but many for sure I believe.

 

[Peyroteo94]

It was no weaker than the year before, you just don't rate the winner, but the field was basically identical. You shouldn't judge the strength of a one day race on the winner (besides, Bettiol was like 1km from finishing 2nd last year too).

Valverde followed wheels and did well. If he had ever focused on it fully he may have once fought for the win, but he didn't as he had races he was guaranteed to do well in a few weeks later. This doesn't hurry your point that non cobbled specialists rarely do well in cobbled races, since Valverde was a freak of nature anyway.

A race like Flanders cannot be won by a rider with Valverde's mentality unless you have a great sprint. All important wins in Valverde's career were conquered by following wheels and then win a uphill sprint (or flat sprint) against other GC riders or other hilly classics specialists (all had a worse sprint than him). In RVV, Valverde couldn't rely on his favorite tactic to win there because he is a worse sprinter than cobbled specialists.

 

[jono]

Wout and rain work in CX. Sure. it's not pure mud. but I think rain actually helps Wout more than Mathieu.

Why do you think that? A muddy course in the past has favored Wout in cyclocross (Dendermonde, for example) because it shifts the balance towards steady power instead of technical skill and accelerations. I don't see why a wet and muddy Roubaix course would have the same effect.

 

[jono]

I believe Tadej has a much greater chance of winning than anybody thinks. He has a godly endurance and can repeat attacks until everybody's dead. The only race he will perhaps never win is MSR (and that's just because of MVDP) because it's just too easy. Unless he starts attacking 100km from the finish. PR is as hard a race as they get. In the last 50km when everybody's half dead, that's Pogi territory. And don't forget - the rain was always his friend.

What is an example of a race where Pogacar has made a race-winning gap on the flat?

 

[Berniece]

All important wins in Valverde's career were conquered by following wheels and then win a uphill sprint (or flat sprint) against other GC riders or other hilly classics specialists (all had a worse sprint than him).

Tour de France 2012, stage 17

 

[sam6]

What is an example of a race where Pogacar has made a race-winning gap on the flat?

He won a totally flat TDF ITT in 2021 against top-form Van Aert, Kung etc. I know it's insane to compare Paris-Roubaix to a 30km ITT but it shows he has won top-level races where he is weight is of no advantage

And, even on Sunday most of the time he gained was on the flat since he was riding faster there than Van Aert, Van der Poel, Pedersen, Stuyven despite it being terrain which should suit them better. It wasn't like he gained all the time on the climbs, at the top of the Paterberg it was touch and go

 

[scribers]

Yeah. Literally 2 days ago

 

[jono]

He won a totally flat TDF ITT in 2021 against top-form Van Aert, Kung etc. I know it's insane to compare Paris-Roubaix to a 30km ITT but it shows he has won top-level races where he is weight is of no advantage

Yeah. Literally 2 days ago

Are you replying to me, s? Pogacar rode impressively on the flats to the finish (probably more impressive for me than his climbs) but if he doesn't drop the group on Kwaremont (or Paterberg afterwards) do you think he rides them off his wheel before the finish? I don't.

I have no doubt Pogacar can keep and extend a gap in the right conditions, as last week and his ITT prowess demonstrate, and could show that if he finds himself off the front at any point in Paris-Roubaix. I just don't see how he creates the gap, without a bit of luck, or "luck". That luck can happen at Roubaix of course and is his best chance, but at Roubaix the riders who make their own luck are those with a bit of cunning, skill on the cobbles, and experience in the race.

 

[ice&fire]

Yeah. Literally 2 days ago

To be fair, one of Valverde or Gerrans ghost was riding in G2

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Why do you think that? A muddy course in the past has favored Wout in cyclocross (Dendermonde, for example) because it shifts the balance towards steady power instead of technical skill and accelerations. I don't see why a wet and muddy Roubaix course would have the same effect.

I have the same question about why it would automatically favor Mathieu. Wout rides better in incliment weather, and a wet Roubaix creates more chaos and a greater likelihood of mishap, which creates more opportunities for those riders who are not quite as strong. Also, do you not think that wet cobbles create a need for more careful accelerations, blunting Mathieu's more explosive attacks? Because it seems logical to me that it does.

 

[jono]

I have the same question about why it would automatically favor Mathieu. Wout rides better in incliment weather, and a wet Roubaix creates more chaos and a greater likelihood of mishap, which creates more opportunities for those riders who are not quite as strong. Also, do you not think that wet cobbles create a need for more careful accelerations, blunting Mathieu's more explosive attacks? Because it seems logical to me that it does.

The first bolded section for me is quite possible, if you are referring to atmospheric conditions in road races, though would fall under the category of "citation needed" for me. Mathieu does sometimes suffer in cold and wet, though right now not a lot of rain is forecast to fall during the race and the temperature forecast is quite mild.

As for who benefits from muddy or wet road surface conditions, especially on the cobbles, for me it is more about technical skills involved in avoiding crashes, cornering more efficiently, etc. Will Wout's pack-riding hesitancy we saw earlier in the year come back to bite him? Or is he over it? I do think, though, that launching attacks on greasy cobbles requires a good deal of technical prowess (see MVDP vs the field last year on slippery Koppenberg) and bravery/risk-taking.

In the end, though, I think under whatever conditions we have Sunday the most likely result is WVA and MVDP finishing in the lead group together and the winner in the sprint is whoever saved the most energy due to technique, team tactics, and "luck" with crashes and mechanicals.