Paris-Roubaix 2025, one day monument, April 13 (men)

[Rule #9 apostle]

To be fair, one of Valverde or Gerrans ghost was riding in G2

It's easy to overestimate the effect of G2 syndrome in situations at the end of races where the strongest rider simply drops everyone off his wheel. They're all basically ***. If you see the replay from after Oude on Sunday they never looked around or gave him free seconds; he gained steadily all the way.

 

[sam6]

There's a quote from Thijs Zonneveld that if Valverde was born in Belgium he would've won RVV 4 times. Which is probably true, he never really cared about the race in his career. Which is a shame, because if he had the curiosity of Pogacar he could've had a much more diverse palmares.

Valverde never won Amstel though, despite riding it most years and it being in the period where he peaked for. I don't see that he would have been able to win Flanders, had he targeted it properly, when he couldn't win Amstel which suited him much better and he did target.

You say he could have a much more diverse palmares, but he never won Amstel and he never won Lombardia. And he did target those races. Sure he came close, but the fact he didn't win races fairly similar to his best terrain shows I don't think he could have won on more diverse terrain.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

The first bolded section for me is quite possible, if you are referring to atmospheric conditions in road races, though would fall under the category of "citation needed" for me. Mathieu does sometimes suffer in cold and wet, though right now not a lot of rain is forecast to fall during the race and the temperature forecast is quite mild.

As for who benefits from muddy or wet road surface conditions, especially on the cobbles, for me it is more about technical skills involved in avoiding crashes, cornering more efficiently, etc. Will Wout's pack-riding hesitancy we saw earlier in the year come back to bite him? Or is he over it? I do think, though, that launching attacks on greasy cobbles requires a good deal of technical prowess (see MVDP vs the field last year on slippery Koppenberg) and bravery/risk-taking.

In the end, though, I think under whatever conditions we have Sunday the most likely result is WVA and MVDP finishing in the lead group together and the winner in the sprint is whoever saved the most energy due to technique, team tactics, and "luck" with crashes and mechanicals.

I think this scenario means MVDP wins 99 times out of 100 (unless Pederson is present), with Wout's current form. Wout will somehow need to come in alone, or with someone like Kung or maybe Ganna, to win.

 

[theyoungest]

I think this scenario means MVDP wins 99 times out of 100 (unless Pederson is present), with Wout's current form. Wout will somehow need to come in alone, or with someone like Kung or maybe Ganna, to win.

That's not just due to Wout's current form, MVDP is more of a real winner. He finds a way to win. Although you would think Wout is due a little luck at this point, so maybe his day will finally arrive on Sunday.

The trick is probably: you shouldn't want it too much... and I'm afraid Wout wants it too much. Pogacar and MVDP can gamble a little more, they've already won every race under the sun these past few years.

 

[Bolder]

I’m going with an outsider. Gotta have hope.

 

[Sciatic]

I’m going with an outsider. Gotta have hope.

This is the monument with the best chance to get that result (Milan-San Remo is more random, but for decades the winner is someone in the top tier of rouleurs, climbers, or sprinters) in a Hayman or Van Summeran fashion.

 

[Red Rick]

It's easy to overestimate the effect of G2 syndrome in situations at the end of races where the strongest rider simply drops everyone off his wheel. They're all basically ***. If you see the replay from after Oude on Sunday they never looked around or gave him free seconds; he gained steadily all the way.

Except it was quite obvious Van der Poel was waiting to take a turn. Once that dynamic starts, nobody is pulling at 100%.

G3 gained time on G2, and that was just 3 riders who were even more ***.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

There's a quote from Thijs Zonneveld that if Valverde was born in Belgium he would've won RVV 4 times. Which is probably true, he never really cared about the race in his career. Which is a shame, because if he had the curiosity of Pogacar he could've had a much more diverse palmares.

Valverde was a very versatile rider, a phenom in his own right so who knows. Obviously he wasn't as overpowered as Pogacar but could've a chance to win.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The Vélodrome André-Pétrieux has been the finish of Paris–Roubaix since 1943. The only interruption was in the years 1986–1988. It was named after a father and son. André Pétrieux, Sr. was a bartender who founded a local cycling club. André Pétrieux, Jr. had an administrative function in sports.

In 1943 and subsequent years the riders had to do three local laps on the velodrome. What’s more, they had to change bikes for these final 1200 m, from a road bike to a track bike. It’s hard to imagine that now.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The Vélodrome André-Pétrieux has been the finish of Paris–Roubaix since 1943. The only interruption was in the years 1986–1988. It was named after a father and son. André-Pétrieux, Sr. was a bartender who founded a local cycling club. André-Pétrieux, Jr. had an administrative function in sports.

In 1943 and subsequent years the riders had to do three local laps on the velodrome. What’s more, they had to change bikes for these final 1200 m, from a road bike to a track bike. It’s hard to imagine that now.

Imagine Teddy practising a bike change and Gianetti screaming from his car "Move your ass faster, you snail!"

 

[search]

All sector ratings are out now:

 

[pihi42]

I have no doubt Pogacar can keep and extend a gap in the right conditions, as last week and his ITT prowess demonstrate, and could show that if he finds himself off the front at any point in Paris-Roubaix. I just don't see how he creates the gap, without a bit of luck, or "luck".

I believe this is somehow the wrong way to think about it. Exactly because "we don't see", we must keep our eyes open. The number of times Pogi surprised us all (and himself).. What I don't see is a reason why Tadej couldn't win PR. There are literally countless circumstances which he can exploit. There is no sure-fire way, but the race is long, hard and chaotic enough. Give him a small crack and it's over. I'm not saying he's the top favorite but I'd give him good chances. Merckx won 3 of his 12 PR starts .. that is 25%, De Vlaeminck won 4/14, MVDP so far 2/4. Anything above 20% is legendary odds. I give Pogačar 20%.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

My top three tiers of contenders:

***** Van der Poel
**** Van Aert, Pedersen
*** Pogacar, Ganna, Philipsen

 

[OlavEH]

I tried, but my dislike for MVDP is bigger. so I'll hope Pog beats (him or Pedersen, or Ganna)

Or Wout.....?

I prefer VdP of the bigger names, but my main hope is that Pog doesn't win. I'm just too tired of him.

 

[repre]

Van Aert. His win is due

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

That's not just due to Wout's current form, MVDP is more of a real winner. He finds a way to win. Although you would think Wout is due a little luck at this point, so maybe his day will finally arrive on Sunday.

The trick is probably: you shouldn't want it too much... and I'm afraid Wout wants it too much. Pogacar and MVDP can gamble a little more, they've already won every race under the sun these past few years.

All fair points.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Or Wout.....?

I prefer VdP of the bigger names, but my main hope is that Pog doesn't win. I'm just too tired of him.

I think Mathieu will win, but want Wout to win, but if not Wout, then Pog, because I want him to take Mathieu's most important cookies 2 weeks in a row.

 

[OlavEH]

I think Mathieu will win, but want Wout to win, but if not Wout, then Pog, because I want him to take Mathieu's most important cookies 2 weeks in a row

Don't get the hate againt MvdP. Watching Pog was impressive for a while. And entertaning. Now it is just impressive, but not at all entertaining. Anybody but Pog.

But even though I prefer VdP of the big names, I actually think Van Aert deserves it this time.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I agree with the WvA hopes. The guy's been through the wringer. He needs a big win.

 

[AmRacer]

Don't get the hate againt MvdP. Watching Pog was impressive for a while. And entertaning. Now it is just impressive, but not at all entertaining. Anybody but Pog.

But even though I prefer VdP of the big names, I actually think Van Aert deserves it this time.

Don't get the hate against Pogi.

 

[jmdirt]

I would rather crash fighting for a corner than flying straight onto cobbles at 70 kph.

And that's why you have ZERO PR victories!

 

[Escarabajo]

I selected Ganna.

Other contenders will be distracted with the GOAT.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Paving the way to legend

> For the first time since 1991, the title-holder of the Tour de France, Tadej Pogacar, will face the Hell of the North, on Sunday 13 April, in what promises to

www.paris-roubaix.fr

Matthew Brennan starting according to the official website, though how accurate it is I don't know. FirstCycling also has him on there.

If he and Behrens are at the start I would expect Visma are going to try and break the race early again to see who they can catch out. Big 5 minutes on one of the early/middle sectors then pull off and DNF sort of job.

 

[OlavEH]

Don't get the hate against Pogi.

Its just boring when a rider is that superior in so many races. Winning by 30-40-50 km solo breaks. Not much happening in the last part of the race or any suspense on who will win.

 

[jono]

Don't get the hate against Pogi.

Do you get why American baseball fans hate the Dodgers or many European football fans hate Real Madrid or Manchester City?