Paris-Roubaix 2025, one day monument, April 13 (men)

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Who will win?

  • Van der Poel

    Votes: 50 28.9%
  • Pogacar

    Votes: 34 19.7%
  • Van Aert

    Votes: 30 17.3%
  • Pedersen

    Votes: 31 17.9%
  • Ganna

    Votes: 10 5.8%
  • Philipsen

    Votes: 8 4.6%
  • Kung

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • Stuyven

    Votes: 1 0.6%
  • Other/Vino

    Votes: 8 4.6%

  • Total voters
    173
After today, I just don't rate Philipsen as a real contender. He hasn't shown great form this spring, YET. I just don't see him being able to beat any of the other major players right now, unless for some reason he were in a long break that holds on to the end, but I cannot imagine anyone letting him up the road, so I don't think that happens.
 
I guess the way I'm looking at it is this: If A happens to be better than B, I want to look for a way B can get to the level of A instead of hoping A disappears or declines back to the level of B.
I don't think physiologically, anyone can match the genetic talent of Pog or Mathieu. No amount of training will change the physiological reality everyone else faces. Certainly, that doesn't mean nobody else has a chance of winning, but that will almost certainly require misfortune or tactical mistakes...and with Pog, he's strong enough to overcome both.
 
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I don't think physiologically, anyone can match the genetic talent of Pog or Mathieu. No amount of training will change the physiological reality everyone else faces. Certainly, that doesn't mean nobody else has a chance of winning, but that will almost certainly require misfortune or tactical mistakes...and with Pog, he's strong enough to overcome both.
I think P-R this year is wide open, certainly now that van der Poel is apparently still not over his illness.
 
Valverde never won Amstel though, despite riding it most years and it being in the period where he peaked for. I don't see that he would have been able to win Flanders, had he targeted it properly, when he couldn't win Amstel which suited him much better and he did target.

You say he could have a much more diverse palmares, but he never won Amstel and he never won Lombardia. And he did target those races. Sure he came close, but the fact he didn't win races fairly similar to his best terrain shows I don't think he could have won on more diverse terrain.
He should have won amstel and lombardia at leat one time in his carreer. But the problem with valverde was always that he just rode passiv and did not attacked.
Then, when the decisive move came he just wait for others to folllow.
 
After today, I just don't rate Philipsen as a real contender. He hasn't shown great form this spring, YET. I just don't see him being able to beat any of the other major players right now, unless for some reason he were in a long break that holds on to the end, but I cannot imagine anyone letting him up the road, so I don't think that happens.
I can see him beating Van Aert in a sprint but that would require a Pog and MvdP crash or badly-timed mechanical.
 
Pogi gonna wind it up right at the Carrefour de L'Arbre (the duclos la salle attack point) and say bye bye and probably ride solo into the velodrome as did Gilbert did many years ago.
My memory must be rusty. I was quite positive that his solo win and breakaway from his competitors (a strong break already established at Arenberg) was before Carrefour de L'Abre. But I've just checked the results list from that edition, time gaps seems too small for a much longer solo attack.
(Regretfully, I lost my VHS with the full splendid coverage with my by then preferred speakers, but now you've set me for a late night task :p ).
 
He should have won amstel and lombardia at leat one time in his carreer. But the problem with valverde was always that he just rode passiv and did not attacked.
Then, when the decisive move came he just wait for others to folllow.
Pretty understandable knowing Valverde's strengths: An elite climber who had the best sprint.

If you are a betting man who can sprint you would bet the best chance to win a race is to follow the attacks then win the sprint. Cycling 101. Having said this, Valverde's 2018 world title win at Innsbruck won me over on that monster course.
 
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