Paris - Roubaix: April 14th, 2019

[tobydawq]

I'm struggling to make a strong case for anyone.

The 2 strongest from RvV, Van der Poel and Bettiol, aren't here. The guy who came 2nd is riding his first P-R.

A bunch of others from last week's front group - Valverde, Matthews, Jungels - aren't here either.

Of the previous winners still around, Terpstra's in hospital, Greg seems to have lost the ability to win again and his team are second rate, Sagan has been dog s*** all spring, Degenkolb is not the same rider as back then.

Two of the likely Flandrian hardmen you'd expect to do well - Vanmarcke and Naesen - have been injured or ill. Gilbert too.

And for 3 of the in-form riders this spring, Kristoff has absolutely no record to speak of at P-R, despite multiple attempts, Stybar was well off the pace last week, and Politt has only ever won 1 race, and that a .1

Given all of that, I'll go with van Aert, but I think there's a good chance we could get a similar race to last week, where a biggish bunch of even matched favorites look at each other in the final, whilst an outsider gets away.

I think Naesen is the biggest favourite. Yes, he has been a little ill but he recovered sufficiently to be in the front group at Flanders. Surely, he will be even better next Sunday (it was smart of him not to win the sprint, avoiding the champagne shower), and on the flat cobbles nobody is better than him, I think. The bad luck he has suffered the last editions of this race is just incredible.

 

[Bardamu]

I'm struggling to make a strong case for anyone.

The 2 strongest from RvV, Van der Poel and Bettiol, aren't here. The guy who came 2nd is riding his first P-R.

A bunch of others from last week's front group - Valverde, Matthews, Jungels - aren't here either.

Of the previous winners still around, Terpstra's in hospital, Greg seems to have lost the ability to win again and his team are second rate, Sagan has been dog s*** all spring, Degenkolb is not the same rider as back then.

Two of the likely Flandrian hardmen you'd expect to do well - Vanmarcke and Naesen - have been injured or ill. Gilbert too.

And for 3 of the in-form riders this spring, Kristoff has absolutely no record to speak of at P-R, despite multiple attempts, Stybar was well off the pace last week, and Politt has only ever won 1 race, and that a .1

Given all of that, I'll go with van Aert, but I think there's a good chance we could get a similar race to last week, where a biggish bunch of even matched favorites look at each other in the final, whilst an outsider gets away.

I think Degenkolb will be one of the main contenders on Sunday, he was quite okay in Flanders and that race doesn't suit him at all.

 

[Sestriere]

Politt probably has fewer mentions in the overall history of this forum than in this thread alone Joking aside, I think he deserves the attention as he has shown in the past years that he has the credentials to do well in Roubaix and he is on form. However, he needs to improve his positioning ahead of the decisive obstacles drastically. In De Ronde he was going over Kapelmuur in like 60th position and of course missed the split. Luckily for him, the front group stalled and he could come back. The same goes for the second Kwaremont, where he was lucky that it was ridden conservatively. Positioning in PR is probably even more important than in the Flemish races as there are more crashes on the Pavé not just splits.
Of course the task doesn't get easier when you have such a weak team, but Haller seems to be back in top shape after his injuries and as a lead out specialist he is the right man for the job.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

Politt probably has fewer mentions in the overall history of this forum than in this thread alone

I've never really noticed him during a race, only afterwards in the results.

 

[King Boonen]

People are more likely to chase and work in PR. The chances of punctures and crashes is higher than in Flanders and I think it's generally enough for small groups to take the chance of dragging a sprinter with them. It'll still require cooperation, but I think that this, added with the fact that it's the last cobbled race, make another outsider winning a lot less likely.

 

[shalgo]

I think Degenkolb will be one of the main contenders on Sunday, he was quite okay in Flanders and that race doesn't suit him at all.

I agree that Degenkolb has a good chance of being in contention for the win here, but I don't know how you can say that Flanders doesn't suit him at all when he has finished in the top ten there three times.

 

[Scarponi]

Sep Vanmarcke or breakaway

 

[RedheadDane]

Sep Vanmarcke or breakaway

Sep Vanmarcke from a breakaway.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

It's really hard to pick favorites this time. Sagan has disappointed in Flanders, but on a flat course he still has a chance. DQSt doesn't look as strong as two weeks ago, but it still has three potential winners. Kristoff ends up on top of my list, but he has never finished higher than ninth. Degenkolb seems to be back, but is he good enough to aim for a win? Vanmarcke did surprisingly well with his knee, but does that make him a contender for P-R?


*****Kristoff :Question:
****Sagan, Van Avermaet, Degenkolb
***Asgreen, Lampaert, Politt
**Vanmarcke, Naesen, Van Aert
*Stybar, Van Baarle, Langeveld

Pity Bettiol isn't riding, the way he rode yesterday, i'd say he would have a decent chance in Roubaix as well. Asgreen to take his place? Vanmarcke actually surprised me yesterday. He was pretty strong, and without the climbs, who knows. Could it be his year, when nobody is looking his way?

i think Flanders was a more suitable race for Bettiol. Degenkolb and Kristoff will be hard to hold out. Sagan looks a little off at the moment. Would like to see Naesen do well.

 

[Anderis]

Sep Vanmarcke or breakaway

Sep Vanmarcke from a breakaway.

LOL, I wanted to write the same.

Vanmarcke to attack, Langeveld to disrupt the chase.

 

[virenque216]

Looks like it is going to be incredibly cold Paris-Roubaix this year looking at the latest weather models:

Max temperature about +8C, touch of frost at start.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-minimales/102h.htm

Also, cross/headwind conditions 15 to 25km/h Gusting up to 35km/h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-moyen/102h.htm

A tough day in the saddle

 

[OlavEH]

Re:

Looks like it is going to be incredibly cold Paris-Roubaix this year looking at the latest weather models:

Max temperature about +8C, touch of frost at start.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-minimales/102h.htm

Also, cross/headwind conditions 15 to 25km/h Gusting up to 35km/h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-moyen/102h.htm

A tough day in the saddle

Advantage Kristoff. The worse the weather is, the better he is relative to the other riders.

 

[Lexman]

Re:

Looks like it is going to be incredibly cold Paris-Roubaix this year looking at the latest weather models:

Max temperature about +8C, touch of frost at start.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/temperatures-minimales/102h.htm

Also, cross/headwind conditions 15 to 25km/h Gusting up to 35km/h

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/vent-moyen/102h.htm

A tough day in the saddle

indeed it's already very chilly these days, with quite a lot of rain here in northern France.

temperature will go down the coming days with slightly negative temperatures in the mornning for the weekend, normally no rain anymore but with all the rain that has fallen yesterday and today I suppose some pavés will still be in a dirty condition to ride on...

 

[Salvarani]

Wide-open race.

Interesting to see what type of riders that gets in the break. Someone out of the break always seem to make it really far.

 

[Laplaz]

Wide-open race.

Interesting to see what type of riders that gets in the break. Someone out of the break always seem to make it really far.

Indeed. The first hour will be very interesting to see. The favorites have to pay attention who gets in the break. Hayman & Dillier docet.

 

[42x16ss]

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

That year’s break was unusual, though. It took 80kms to form, and the maximum lead was 3 minutes. It’s totally normal that the break formed in those circumstances would have some serious names in it. After the break formed, there was the split which saw Cancellara and Sagan caught behind, and Quickstep driving to get Tommeke clear.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

That year’s break was unusual, though. It took 80kms to form, and the maximum lead was 3 minutes. It’s totally normal that the break formed in those circumstances would have some serious names in it. After the break formed, there was the split which saw Cancellara and Sagan caught behind, and Quickstep driving to get Tommeke clear.

Still cant believe how Tom missed that chance to add another win and lost that sprint...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

Yeah, it's a bit of a strange claim. I find it hard to believe that, if Hayman hadn't broken his arm, then the likes of BMC, Quickstep, Tinkoff would have been busting a gut to close down any break with him in it. He was a rider without any results for four years, and who was never a really serious threat even at his peak.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

That year’s break was unusual, though. It took 80kms to form, and the maximum lead was 3 minutes. It’s totally normal that the break formed in those circumstances would have some serious names in it. After the break formed, there was the split which saw Cancellara and Sagan caught behind, and Quickstep driving to get Tommeke clear.

Yeah I know, I watched the whole race.
I only stated that Hayman wasn't allowed to go in that break because he broked his arm couple of months before that.

 

[Mayomaniac]

My pick is Politt, he's in great shape, has a strong sprint after a hard race and he has always been better in Roubaix.
Trek also have a few cards to play.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I'm picking Mads Pedersen.

He's had a terrible spring and everyone has deemed him out.

Baring a crash, I see him winning on pure rage

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Only reason Hayman was allowed in the break was because of the racing he missed with his broken arm.

That simply is not true.
Chavanel was in that break, and he was certainly more of a threat than Hayman at that moment, yet he was allowed to go in that break.

That year’s break was unusual, though. It took 80kms to form, and the maximum lead was 3 minutes. It’s totally normal that the break formed in those circumstances would have some serious names in it. After the break formed, there was the split which saw Cancellara and Sagan caught behind, and Quickstep driving to get Tommeke clear.

Still cant believe how Tom missed that chance to add another win and lost that sprint...

Hayman was in the form of his life. Just too strong on the day.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Cyclingnews has some great images of favourites exploring the course. Three days before the race there were already spectators.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/peloton-prepares-for-dry-and-dusty-paris-roubaix-gallery/