Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[memyselfandI]

They must teach him throw the bottle down like my man Tommy Voeckler does! Memyselfandi and for sure the French audience needs that, Remco has been around long already and he only shakes and shouts for his poor Spez bike, not very flamboyant, kicking sand and whatnot?

 

[Unchained]

Yeah sure, but I meant his entourage and the people influencing those decisions.

I go with collective optimism. I believe the riders, their family and friends are all intelligent, thinking people. I believe now more than ever people are hyper aware of things that were unknown, even let's say @5 years ago.
I have hope that riders are making intelligent decisions and if something goes wrong it originated with good intentions. I think with technology riders are less isolated, using apps like WhatsApp, FaceTime, ect, riders have additional ways to reach out for connection and advice. Some of the older stories about riders not asking questions about anything, including mystery "treatments" are mostly a thing of the past.In my opinion current rider know a million times more about the inner working of the team than ever before.

 

[hayneplane]

Kid has just got the IT factor. Can climb very well, has punch, can TT more than competently and has already shown 1 day racing aptitude.

Pretty tidy to get his first pro win against a top 5 entirely comprised of riders with top 5 Grand Tour finishes other than himself.

 

[Berniece]

He’s doing a lot of single day races, looking forward to his Strade performance

 

[mikks]

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.