Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[AlpRaid]

I'm definitely a fan.

the fact that he is on a French team (and not UAE) makes a huge difference in how I feel about his obvious natural talent.

Do not expect him to rival Pogacar [content deleted] this year, but can we dream perhaps next year...?

 

[AlfaLum]

Well his team might have it right by sending him to the Tour. He might actually fight for the podium.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I'm definitely a fan.

the fact that he is on a French team (and not UAE) makes a huge difference in how I feel about his obvious natural talent.

Do not expect him to rival Pogacar this year, but can we dream perhaps next year...?

[content deleted]

Time will tell whether he's just developing at a faster pace than other riders of his generation, but no one can deny that he is an exciting and hugely talented prospect.

 

[Revelation]

Goes to his limit trying to follow Pogacar, continues to work much harder than all the rest, still drops them multiple times. Even if Del Toro didn't give it his all in the end, still an unreal performance, if I was Del Toro I'd get worried about the future right about now.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Goes to his limit trying to follow Pogacar, continues to work much harder than all the rest, still drops them multiple times. Even if Del Toro didn't give it his all in the end, still an unreal performance, if I was Del Toro I'd get worried about the future right about now.

It was already obvious before the season that Seixas' ceiling is way higher than Del Toro's...

 

[Netserk]

i guess chatgpt still goes by base rate and thinks he like any other promising u23 rider has 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years

you wouldnt want to overhype him and think he is the most likely rider to be the next tour winner

Seixas is overhyped. The futures of young riders are generally very hard to predict because the uncertainties are so high. I was very confident back in the day that Quintana would become a Tour winner. In 2019–2020, I was also quite confident that Evenepoel would win at least one Tour (though I was never in the “Remco will become a dominant GC rider” camp).

I asked from AI (ChatGTP 5.2pro) some predictions and it gave Seixas 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years.

Specifially about Seixas Ai said: " chances based on historical outcomes of top U23 and junior super-talents.

The rough long-term conversion rates are:

Tour winner level: ~10–20%

Tour podium level: ~25–40%

Very good, but not a Tour winner: ~40–50%

Since Seixas is considered to be in the higher tier of prospects, then
so I’d place him toward the upper half:


➡️ Chance he becomes a genuine Tour-winning-level rider: ~15–20%

The uncertainties around Paul Seixas are massive. If he moves quickly—during the next couple of seasons—from prospect level to true contender level (meaning podium finishes in TDF), his odds of becoming a Tour-winning-level rider would increase dramatically."

I would say that AI is broadly correct in its estimates.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

i guess chatgpt still goes by base rate and thinks he like any other promising u23 rider has 2-5% chance to win a TDF during next 5-8 years

you wouldnt want to overhype him and think he is the most likely rider to be the next tour winner

I think he is the most likely next TdF winner. Pogacar (and to some extent Vingegaard) have locked the Tour totally but at some point Seixas could really take over.

 

[Netserk]

I think he is the most likely next TdF winner. Pogacar (and to some extent Vingegaard) have locked the Tour totally but at some point Seixas could really take over.

i agree

but we are at fault for overhyping him

 

[SafeBet]

Muad'dib it is.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

i agree

but we are at fault for overhyping him

Maybe but the hype is 100% justified after today and Drome-Ardeche. The fact the Tour is so locked by Pogacar/Vingegaard nowadays makes it more likely that Seixas will be the next Tour winner (as older guys than him are missing their window of opportunity).

 

[James M]

Another legit performance. Super strong today across the board and even impressively aswell in this company. Just great to see dude is legit.

 

[canina82]

Can he improve significantly until the Tour and beat Pogacar or I'm getting too excited about him?

 

[topcat]

[content deleted] As for Seixas: I believe that as we walk through time, the best is yet to come.

 

[canina82]

Lenny Martinez said after Faun Ardèche that Paul Seixas was already better than Isaac Del Toro.

And I think he's right.

I think he will beat Vingegaard in the TdF

 

[James M]

Can he improve significantly until the Tour and beat Pogacar or I'm getting too excited about him?

If you think that, thats way too exciting to me hes heavens apart from him as anyone else is. You can say hes better than Pogi at his age though.

But hes done altitude, and I have my doubts about how much he’ll improve before the Tour relative to Pog (Pog is even peaking for RVV and PR not now) I think its the other way around that Pogi will improve more relative to him for the Tour and already is 15x better but thats not to say Seixas isnt the real deal ×100.

 

[canina82]

It was already obvious before the season that Seixas' ceiling is way higher than Del Toro's...

Of course but no one expected him to be better already than Del Toro

 

[Netserk]

Can he improve significantly until the Tour and beat Pogacar or I'm getting too excited about him?

i dont think he can

this lvl consistently over three weeks is what he will build towards , i think

 

[James M]

Love him and his approach hes not afraid to lose either like some quacking champs who only talk out there and are scared to life to lose.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Another great performance by this special young man. The Tour will be exciting to watch. I hope he can live up to the hype over the upcoming decade.

 

[pastronef]

special fun reading some FDJ fans on the Gruppetto forum, not being that happy about his perf...

 

[AlfaLum]

[content deleted]

Time will tell whether he's just developing at a faster pace than other riders of his generation, but no one can deny that he is an exciting and hugely talented prospect.

Well he is already better than most riders of most other generations it seems. Including some of the riders we consider just below the absolute top.

 

[Tonton]

special fun reading some FDJ fans on the Gruppetto forum, not being that happy about his perf...

I just went to that forum, read the last three pages, and I couldn't find any such post, just a couple wondering if Isaac let him get the second place in a classy act, due to all the work that Paul had done...more were lamenting that we never got to see how it unfolded.

In any case, now we know for sure, if there was any doubt: Paul Seixas is the real deal. Pressure will only increase to have him race in July,. There's a lot of money at stake for the organization. A podium seems possible, but in the grand scheme of things, I would wait another year and go for the whole thing. By then, Teddy may not be as strong: right now, he's unstoppable.

 

[Cookster15]

i agree

but we are at fault for overhyping him

I don't think anyone can say he was overhyped as of today.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Can he improve significantly until the Tour and beat Pogacar or I'm getting too excited about him?

This is too much excitement. I think he can fight for top5 or even top3 in his debut (if 3-week endurance is not a problem for him at this age, we can't be sure yet). In a couple of years he could be ready to fight for the Tour win but a lot also depends on how Pogacar ages.

 

[Berniece]

Lenny Martinez said after Faun Ardèche that Paul Seixas was already better than Isaac Del Toro.

And I think he's right.

That’s because Del Toro was always overrated