Even if he drops a step, he still is good enough to beat Lipowitz. Today Lipo wasn't close to drop him and Seixas dropped everyone yesterday too, not just in stage 2.
- Oct 25, 2020
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Seixas blew everyone away in the first couple of days. We often see this trend, whereby the leader of the race with a big buffer, is less dominant in the latter stages. He can afford to take his foot off the gas a bit.
It is an absolute compliment to Seixas, that we criticise his performance because he won the stage 'only' in a sprint finish. He blew the remaining 129 riders away. Just look at the time gaps.
Unless the break get away, he is favourite to win the stage tomorrow as well. If he wants to go for it.
Here is a breakdown of time gaps between 1st and 5th position over the last 6 editions of this stage race:
2021- 1min 27sec
2022- 32sec
2023- 1min 36sec
2024- 1min 46sec
2025- 2min 17sec
2026- 4min 12sec and counting
It is an absolute compliment to Seixas, that we criticise his performance because he won the stage 'only' in a sprint finish. He blew the remaining 129 riders away. Just look at the time gaps.
Unless the break get away, he is favourite to win the stage tomorrow as well. If he wants to go for it.
Here is a breakdown of time gaps between 1st and 5th position over the last 6 editions of this stage race:
2021- 1min 27sec
2022- 32sec
2023- 1min 36sec
2024- 1min 46sec
2025- 2min 17sec
2026- 4min 12sec and counting
This kid is phenomenal but his rising is not welcomed by many because it means other "hyped riders" lost any chance of winning the TdF in the future. The argument was that Jonas and Pogacar will eventually lose interest in the sport and Remco, Lipo, Ayuso, etc can foght for the TdF. This argument went out the window right now.
- Jul 31, 2024
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That is not even close to why i'm not looking forward to Seixas destroying climbs at his age.
I'm also not buying the Pogacar tired of racing narrative
- Sep 12, 2022
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I love to see him ride like this. It's always nice to see young riders do well. For all I care he wins the TDF this year. Just because some people look critically to him, doesn't mean there is an ulterior motive
- Feb 12, 2025
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We’re not concerned about lipowitz. “The thread name says paul seixas tdf winner 2031” or at any point in the next years and not for a 3rd or top 5 result & If we’re talking about Winning a tdf, pog & ving are the two benchmarks atm. Both are known for their exceptional recovery ability in 3week races which allows them to win the grand tours. For seixas its not there quite yet but could happen in near future through experience.
- Jan 8, 2020
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If recovery is an issue, which isn't really evident, it's worth recalling he is only 19. Hence, he should become stronger and recover better over the next 5, 6, 7 years. At 19 he's nowhere near his athletic peak.
- Jul 8, 2017
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But Seixas' abilities to recover aren't bad.
He just didn't drop Lipowitz today.
Pogacar was (almost?) dropped on Montjuic, Vingegaard didn't drop Lenny Martinez.
Get a grip.
The guy just won his third stage, people here question his recovery abilities as if he was hard dropped today...
- Feb 12, 2025
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Recovery is definitely an issue both in algarve & basque. You can’t lose a minute advantage(in level) in 4 or 5 days if it wasn’t a recovery problem. Maybe illness/crash could also drop your level. But I agree on your 2nd point that he can become a complete rider in the next years but my only concern is can he be the next pog in grand tours? after comparing their first & second year pro which says to me pog might not be as dominantly strong at 19 or 20(part of it is also his trainer being Sanmilan) but he had definitely the better recovery at that age as his vuelta 19 performance indicates
Cookster15
Moderator
- May 14, 2011
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He is only 19. I agree with Extinction. Maybe he suffered in today's heat but I would not read too much into anything we saw in terms of what his potential is.
- Feb 12, 2025
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putting pogs montjuic & vingegaards Paris nice is irrelevant. Both are ridden in completely different situation than today with the former ridden extremely conservatively & the latter, the watts speak for itself as vingegaard being not even close to his top shape in the idea to peak for giro & tour. Seixas had an exceptional level in the 1st days & today u can clearly see he was trying to drop lipo but couldn’t. I am confident if todays stage was ridden on the 1st day seixas is gone by a minute & if you could argue this, well i am out
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- Jul 8, 2017
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And what if he had a slightly weaker day (everyone has that, remember Vingegaard being dropped by Pidcock in the Vuelta) and Lipowitz a great one? That surely reduces the gap naturally, no?
Besides, if you drop everyone hard on the first stage, gain time in the ITT, but your so called drop of performance still allows you to win the late stages, this is more than enough to win most GT's, Tours including, isn't it?
- Feb 12, 2025
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You’re right, it’s possible to win grand tours in a fashion you described but first we have to agree on the point that his level dropped a little today. And ur point on ving isn’t true as he was ill the last 2 weeks in vuelta But anyways don’t get me wrong, a one or two less good days in grand tours can be normal & today could be one of those days but if you read my first comments/posts on this issue I was referring more about a characteristics theme where seixas could be a vdp type rider who can be excellent for a few days & fades away in the later stages( This are just assumptions) Or he is the typical grand tour rider who could become complete in aging. This 2 scenarios or outcomes are still to be discovered in the coming months.
There are many not welcoming his rise? I distinctly feel the opposite in this forum (maybe not in other sections of the forum
)Yes, I agree that he’s phenomenal and his development has been remarkable, but would really like to see him over 3 weeks before proclaiming that he’s ruined all chances at the tour for everyone else in the years to come. Less than a year ago the sentiment from some was that Del Toro was poised to take the throne. He’s had a cracking start this year, and a shame about the injury.
The situation is different, but Ayuso at 19 had a GT podium and that hasn’t turned out so well. Seixas certainly appears on an upward trajectory, I just recommend some patience.
- May 17, 2013
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I guess I'll have another beer today ...sweeeeeeeet!
...sweeeeeeeet!
- Jan 8, 2020
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Firstly, at 19 Pog was not at this level. Secondly, I think you are making comparisons with Paul and Tadej under current situations. You have to consider Decathlon is not UAE. Pog gets delivered to do his thing generally when UAE has already chopped the legs off most of his rivals. Decathlon, by contrast, isn't that strong and so when the last man swings off Paul has more sustained effort to do to snap the elastic. Thirdly, for this reason of his team, Paul has had to take matters into his own hands in situations where UAE would certainly have kept things together more, saving Pog energy. The team plays a huge role in the leader's recovery. At any rate, Paul should only improve in everything in the coming years, so I wouldn't judge him too severely now. And he hasn't really lost any time in this Itzulia, except 7 secs to Izaggire on stage 4, won 3 stages and has pretty much consistently grown his margin. Pog was 20 (less than a week from 21) when he took third in the Vuelta. Seixas, given birthdays, is two years younger about to win Itzulia. Impressive any way you look at it.
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- Jan 8, 2020
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That's a totaly ridiculous proposition. Paul absolutely crushed it in the opening TT. Everbody else should be glad yesterday's stage wasn't ridden on the first day or else second place would not have only been 23 seconds slower. That he didn't drop Lipowitz yesterday should come as no surprise. After all we're talking about a guy how came third in the friggin Tour last year, already a transformative race just to complete, compared to one who hasn't even ridden a GT yet who is only 19. Secondly, Lipowitz did Catalunya before Itzulia, thus his preparation should have allowed him excellent recovery throughout this week. By contrast, Seixas last stage race was Algarve in February, which may explain a more linear performance level over the course of Itzulia. Yet, thus for, nobody even came close to cracking him. This is why your idea of the outcome for yesterday's stage had it been stage one is patently absurd.
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- Apr 8, 2023
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Think I'll buy some shares in French breweries ....I guess I'll have another beer today
- Feb 20, 2012
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It's better to compare similar stages rather than overall gaps where the routes are very different.
Vingegaard won 3 stages in 2023 but the route was much less selective so the gap didn't blow up until the final stage, where he did go away solo on Izua, and where by the metric of 'gap to top 5' he's actively getting punished for going away solo.
- Feb 12, 2025
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- Jan 8, 2020
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You wrote: "I am confident if todays stage was ridden on the 1st day seixas is gone by a minute & if you could argue this, well i am out"
Well, either I've read it wrong or you expressed yourself poorly.
He's clearly getting weaker every day
He could win this Itzulia with 10 minutes and some would still deny the reality .
He could win this Itzulia with 10 minutes and some would still deny the reality .
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- May 5, 2010
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This is more than that.
Last year he couldn't even dropped Widar. It's all so absurd.
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