Paul Seixas: Tour de France Winner 2031

[Rule #9 apostle]

I'm pretty sure Seixas will drop Vingegaard.

On short efforts first weeks he might possibly already have an edge. But on the long climbs, and in week three? Pretty confident in Jv for the tour THIS year.

 

[hayneplane]

On short efforts first weeks he might possibly already have an edge. But on the long climbs, and in week three? Pretty confident in Jv for the tour THIS year.

If Jonas wasn’t doing the Giro first I would still be sceptical of Seixas matching him but with the current plans I can envisage Seixas being the closest challenger to Pogacar.

 

[Lorzenz08]

If Jonas wasn’t doing the Giro first I would still be sceptical of Seixas matching him but with the current plans I can envisage Seixas being the closest challenger to Pogacar.

Let see, 2023 Vuelta showed that Vingo handles very well 2 GTs in a row. I think if he also manages his efforts well, which he should with his experience and JV strength. He should still be the 2nd favorite.

I think the first week there might be instances where Paul seems stronger, but after 10 days I think Vingo will be a notch on top.

 

[hayneplane]

Let see, 2023 Vuelta showed that Vingo handles very well 2 GTs in a row. I think if he also manages his efforts well, which he should with his experience and JV strength. He should still be the 2nd favorite.

I think the first week there might be instances where Paul seems stronger, but after 10 days I think Vingo will be a notch on top.

Seixas is looking better every race. With a short rest now, then altitude camp and the Dauphine we could already be looking at a significantly better level than now.

Jonas has shown he can handle back to back Grand Tours which is why I still expect him to podium the tour.

 

[Gratemans]

Yes, he seems to improve in an exponential way, exceeding our expectations race after race.

BUT we haven't seen him do a three week GC yet. It's a whole different way of racing. Entirely different ballpark in fact.
Not saying he won't perform, I just hope people won't be too disappointed if he doesn't end up on the podium.

 

[jmdirt]

Yes to the two posts above, but I wonder how much more he can improve this year.

The TdF will be extremely tough for a 19 year old French hope! I certainly wish him success, but there might be differing opinions about what success looks like.

 

[iBanesto]

The boy can climb...

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

In 2025 Pogacar destroyed everyone on La Redoute and set a record and everyone agreed it was crazy and legendary. In 2026, Seixas was 13” faster in his first attempt at age 19. Totally insane. Carried by Pogacar of course but we’ve seen him do some crazy solos so I wouldn’t have put it past him to break last year’s record solo had Pogacar not been in the race.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

One year after being a promising junior Seixas is already top3 in stage racing and top2 in hilly/mountainous classics. And this is in the era of the greatest rider since Merckx. Crazy progression really.

Yesterday's yolo attack on Redoute was one of the most impressive I've seen by Pogacar. It made other guys teleport backwards and lose big time in just one kilometer. This kind of performance would normally mean that his dominance is growing even more. And yet, Seixas' performance there means that some cycling fans have hope it won't be one sided soon.

 

[AlfaLum]

He is the prince that was promised

 

[YavorD]

Just wonder if Seixas is gonna have his Vingegaard and Van Der Poel in the years coming or we'll see a total terror..
We may end up appreciating these last couple of years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Just wonder if Seixas is gonna have his Vingegaard and Van Der Poel in the years coming or we'll see a total terror..
We may end up appreciating these last couple of years.

He has his Pogacar now but who knows what will be happening in a few years. It looks like Seixas is poised to dominate stage races and hilly/mountainous classics. Time will tell if he will try cobbled monuments as well. Maybe he will, trying to emulate Pogacar's feats.

 

[YavorD]

He has his Pogacar now but who knows what will be happening in a few years. It looks like Seixas is poised to dominate stage races and hilly/mountainous classics. Time will tell if he will try cobbled monuments as well. Maybe he will, trying to emulate Pogacar's feats.

The way they ride RvV now, I think he would top 10 easily. And that's very pessimistic IMO.
Evenepoel was rather bad on the cobbles and he was stil 3rd. Don't think Seixas can be much worse than him.

MSR and PR are very different, of course, but at least in MSR he should be very competitive if they ride it the same way.

 

[Taxus4a]

Chapeau!
It was clear last year a new superstar was born and he is confirmed this one.
Muy only doubts or is of maybe to ride alm this important races so young giving all againts the best riders is the best for the future.
Anywsy he is present and we are enjoying a lot.

 

[vappa]

The way they ride RvV now, I think he would top 10 easily. And that's very pessimistic IMO.
Evenepoel was rather bad on the cobbles and he was stil 3rd. Don't think Seixas can be much worse than him.

MSR and PR are very different, of course, but at least in MSR he should be very competitive if they ride it the same way.

If Pogacar doesn't ride MSR, good luck convincing anyone to attack all out on Cipressa and why that's a good idea. He will have to do it himself, otherwise it won't be raced that way

 

[YavorD]

If Pogacar doesn't ride MSR, good luck convincing anyone to attack all out on Cipressa and why that's a good idea. He will have to do it himself, otherwise it won't be raced that way

Evenepoel could probably as well.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel could probably as well.

But he can't drop 99% of the peloton and remain with 3-4 riders like Pogacar can

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The way they ride RvV now, I think he would top 10 easily. And that's very pessimistic IMO.
Evenepoel was rather bad on the cobbles and he was stil 3rd. Don't think Seixas can be much worse than him.

MSR and PR are very different, of course, but at least in MSR he should be very competitive if they ride it the same way.

It's obvious that Seixas will focus on Tour, WC (good routes), Liege and Lombardy in the next 2-3 years. At some point he will try RVV indeed: his w/kg engine is too good not to go for it. MSR is a cheap race to add to his calendar but will be very difficult to win. Roubaix is a completely different beast though, not sure if he will ever try it.

 

[RobertCrawley]

The three-week TdF is a different beast than a monument or even a week-long stage race. I hope Seixas hangs with the leaders until the end, but the long grind has been the undoing of many a great rider. But to see another French champion at the Tour! That would be awesome beyond words. L'Equipe writers have already collectively lost their minds even before the Tour begins.

 

[Netserk]

i think he will ride the tour and do well -- dauphine should be informative for his podium chances and hes my favourite to win it

naturally theres still great uncertainty wrt to the tour but my gut feeling is

1st : 1 %
2nd : 19 %
3rd : 30 %
4-5th : 20 %
worse : 30 %

 

[Alien Performance]

i think he will ride the tour and do well -- dauphine should be informative for his podium chances and hes my favourite to win it

naturally theres still great uncertainty wrt to the tour but my gut feeling is

1st : 1 %
2nd : 19 %
3rd : 30 %
4-5th : 20 %
worse : 30 %

Think 1st should be higher just given the chance that Pog crashes or gets sick

 

[Tonton]

How far he has come...

View: https://youtu.be/K0i1Sdo_cf0?si=SStQAguvXxzYovYN

 

[saunaking]

Just watched the final of LBL today after a weekend away...

Seixas was amazing, Pogi was stronger
But i am 100% certain if Seixas wouldn't work with Pogi after La Redoute he would NOT have been dropped on RAF and been there to contest a sprint.

Can't wait til he takes down Pogi. Sooner than later

 

[proffate]

Just watched the final of LBL today after a weekend away...

Seixas was amazing, Pogi was stronger
But i am 100% certain if Seixas wouldn't work with Pogi after La Redoute he would NOT have been dropped on RAF and been there to contest a sprint.

Can't wait til he takes down Pogi. Sooner than later

Imo if he doesn't work, Pog just rides z2 to RAF and attacks all the harder. It's not like Seixas was very close to making it over and the gap only grew from there. But yes, I do look forward to the day Pog has to do something beyond hulk smash after another record breaking TTT.

 

[RobertCrawley]

i think he will ride the tour and do well -- dauphine should be informative for his podium chances and hes my favourite to win it

naturally theres still great uncertainty wrt to the tour but my gut feeling is

1st : 1 %
2nd : 19 %
3rd : 30 %
4-5th : 20 %
worse : 30 %

I hope Seixas does well in the Tour. Of course, another major factor his the team surrounding him. Decathlon has a budget of $35-40 million, and they have some known riders on the payroll. But most of them are around 30 or older. Will they be able to help him when the road goes straight up a mountain in the searing heat?