Peter Sagan discussion thread.

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He finished second in a big bunch sprint on this Tour. He was relegated for a dangerous move, but that doesn’t change that he had the speed to come second. So there is still speed there.

why he is losing to Morkov at intermediates is a bit of a mystery but it certainly isn’t because Morkov is just faster than him now
 
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For some reason the peleton hasn't allowed Sagan to go into breaks, even though Bennett would be on his wheel - It's been a strange dynamic in this race.
I don’t think that’s such a mystery! The two teams have been engaged in continuous hand to hand combat over Green.

Bora have managed to deny Bennett two likely opportunities to participate in a bunch sprint. So DQS won’t be feeling magnanimous. Tactically speaking they know that Bennett scores more points every time they hit an intermediate as part of a bunch because he’s faster. They also know that Sagan is a wiley old fox who might give Bennett the slip in a break and that he’s more likely to survive to the end in a break that has to go over tough territory. They’ve no reason to allow Sagan the chance to win as long as he’s In the contest for Green.

if he’s going to get in a break it will have to be in circumstances where it can’t be controlled. If he’s ostentatiously given up on Green and stopped contesting intermediated ages ago, he’d have been let go. As it is stage 19 is still his best chance for a win. But it won’t be easy.
 
I don’t think that’s such a mystery! The two teams have been engaged in continuous hand to hand combat over Green.

Bora have managed to deny Bennett two likely opportunities to participate in a bunch sprint. So DQS won’t be feeling magnanimous. Tactically speaking they know that Bennett scores more points every time they hit an intermediate as part of a bunch because he’s faster. They also know that Sagan is a wiley old fox who might give Bennett the slip in a break and that he’s more likely to survive to the end in a break that has to go over tough territory. They’ve no reason to allow Sagan the chance to win as long as he’s In the contest for Green.

if he’s going to get in a break it will have to be in circumstances where it can’t be controlled. If he’s ostentatiously given up on Green and stopped contesting intermediated ages ago, he’d have been let go. As it is stage 19 is still his best chance for a win. But it won’t be easy.
It has nothing to do with Quick Step - Bennett is always on Sagan's wheel so you are allowing both to get into the break if the peleton gives permission - Of course QS will chase Sagan down for the intermediate if Bennett is not on his wheel BUT this has rarely been the case - It's a peleton issue.
 
Does Sagan have any mathematical chance at taking the green after stage 18 or is it over ?
If its finally his day tomorrow, he can be in green after the stage. And so can Trentin. But thats a big if. It all depends, how deep Sam had to dig in previous for stages and if Bora or CCC is able to controll the stage so there is no or very little break up front on the intermediate sprint and if one of them wins the stage. The second part of the stage is all up and down, so there's big chance Sam won't be there to contest the finish and there's 50 points to take.
 
If its finally his day tomorrow, he can be in green after the stage. And so can Trentin. But thats a big if. It all depends, how deep Sam had to dig in previous for stages and if Bora or CCC is able to controll the stage so there is no or very little break up front on the intermediate sprint and if one of them wins the stage. The second part of the stage is all up and down, so there's big chance Sam won't be there to contest the finish and there's 50 points to take.
Imagine if they get within 10 of Bennett.
 
Peter Sagan just doesn't have the kick anymore. We saw glimpses of it in 2019. In 2018, he won 3 stages. 2017, Disqualified. 2016, 3 stages.

This year, he's been soft pedaling with about 30 meters to go (or so.) He seems to give up for the last few pedal strokes because he knows he can't win. So from 100 meters out, he seems to have already lost the sprint.

Maybe he can focus on classics, or MTB??
In 2016 and 2018, he won his stages in sprints where that year's fastest men were missing (Cav and Kittel in 2016, Groenewegen and Gaviria in 2018). Which is a pattern in his Tour stage wins; he's rarely won when the absolute pure speedsters were in the mix, and he didn't win any stages in 2014 or 15. So his sprinting this year is probably about where it normally is.

But this year, his team have had to force it to get rid of those types, and that's left them less able to support him at stages that do suit him. Any other year, Sagan would have been the odd-on favourite to win that Lyon stage, and his team would just have controlled the break and tried to coax some work out of CCC or even Quickstep long the route, and save all the matches for that crazy finale.

I do think his climbing has got significantly worse; he was nowhere in Strade Bianche, he couldn't follow the attacks on the Poggio in MSR. So now he has to get his points in the sprint stages, which is hard when there are sprinters who are faster than you who also want to win those sprints.
 
Feb 17, 2015
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A Tour to forget. Still very consistent but was weaker than in previous years at the Tour. I'm usually very critical when he underperforms (the isn't the first time), but this was a strange year for cycling and the covid break and a change in schedule certainly had an effect on his form even if he may be slightly declining as a rider. Hopefully he can win a stage at the Giro, it would be a shame if he only won the race to most top 10's without a win.
 
So without the dq and everything happening as it has he'd be ahead by 1.
Without the dq, tactics would have changed considerably. He could have been ahead enough DQS wouldn't have applied all their efforts to control him so a larger buffer would be likely.
I can't imagine Sagan taking his second major sprint sanction without some feeling of victimization. It'd be difficult to maintain the best focus after the dq. He fought pretty hard for awhile.
 
Without the dq, tactics would have changed considerably. He could have been ahead enough DQS wouldn't have applied all their efforts to control him so a larger buffer would be likely.
I can't imagine Sagan taking his second major sprint sanction without some feeling of victimization. It'd be difficult to maintain the best focus after the dq. He fought pretty hard for awhile.
It was his own fault whether you agree with it or not. He could have finished 3rd or 4th but of course heat of the moment.
And yes tatics would have absolutely changed without it, we don't know what would have happened but I was saying if it all stayed the same he would have been ahead. I would think DQS would keep to win the Jersey any way they can.
 
It was his own fault whether you agree with it or not. He could have finished 3rd or 4th but of course heat of the moment.
And yes tatics would have absolutely changed without it, we don't know what would have happened but I was saying if it all stayed the same he would have been ahead. I would think DQS would keep to win the Jersey any way they can.
I agree with the decision. He can blame the UCI if he wants, too. As noted several times; the sprint run ins are deadly and the pressure to peloton place is worse than ever.
 
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Covid makes it hard to assess what we saw. Some riders perform way below their level, others just blossom. Desperate he was in that sprint: no excuse, it was dangerous. But I'm on the record for not wanting refs to be involved, sprints are for crazy people who do crazy things. That's what it is, always was, always will be.
 
Slowly but surely Bora is preparing the cycling public for a possible divorce with Sagan after the end of the current contract:


Basically, Ackermann to ride the next Tour, and Sagan might be in a support role only...
 
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The big rumour is that Sagan will quit road racing and go to MTB, or gravel, or just being a cycling legend out there in the world. And Bora seem to be slowly transitioning to being a German team with the best German riders, trying to get German stage wins in the Tour, and maybe some GC, so Sagan will be a bit left in the lurch.

But what if he were to stick with Specialized and move to Quickstep? Quickstep obviously won't pay him what Bora do, but he's not worth that on current results anyway. And with Quickstep, he would actually get the support in the tail end of classics that he hasn't had himself in, well, ever.
 
But what if he were to stick with Specialized and move to Quickstep?
I'm not so sure Lefevre is really a Sagan fan... He doesn't really like him that much. Plus, he'd be competing in classics with plenty of Belgians at Leferve's disposal... I think Quickstep is a no go for Sagan. The only way he would end up there is if he accepted below, way below, his market value contract. I don't see it happening, even Sagan isn't that stupid...

Btw, that's an interesting idea him competing in MTB for Specialized... Plus, he was always fond of the States, and California in particular. Said many times, he'd love to move over there... He has huge fanbase in the U.S., he could easily find a nice career there... But after his divorce and limited access to his son such move might not be in his cards anymore... We'll know soon... I'm guessing about this time next year, we'll know;)
 
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I'm not so sure Lefevre is really a Sagan fan... He doesn't really like him that much. Plus, he'd be competing in classics with plenty of Belgians at Leferve's disposal... I think Quickstep is a no go for Sagan. The only way he would end up there is if he accepted below, way below, his market value contract. I don't see it happening, even Sagan isn't that stupid...

Btw, that's an interesting idea him competing in MTB for Specialized... Plus, he was always fond of the States, and California in particular. Said many times, he'd love to move over there... He has huge fanbase in the U.S., he could easily find a nice career there... But after his divorce and limited access to his son such move might not be in his cards anymore... We'll know soon... I'm guessing about this time next year, we'll know;)
EF could use him. He'd enjoy that environment, I'd guess. Next year is going to be just as weird as this year with C19 still rampant so it's hard to know what will happen. By the way; why do you consider Sagan stupid?
 
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Back in the day, before any of them had their breakthrough, Lefevre talked a lot about the impressive numbers by Sagan and Kwiatkowski after a training/analysing session with them. I'm sure he would have loved Sagan on his team, but not the current version as much.
 
Well, I rate the 2020 version of Sagan far above 2016 version of Gilbert, so I'm sure Lefevre could get Sagan to perform at an equal level to what Gilbert did at his years in QuickStep.

But of course the financial part might be completely different with Sagan compared to Gilbert.
 
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