yes if bennet scores 0 (or few). At stage 19 and 21 : 2 intermediate sprint : 20 + 20 + end of stage points : quite enough. Now if bennet is top 5 tomorrow it's over.
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If its finally his day tomorrow, he can be in green after the stage. And so can Trentin. But thats a big if. It all depends, how deep Sam had to dig in previous for stages and if Bora or CCC is able to controll the stage so there is no or very little break up front on the intermediate sprint and if one of them wins the stage. The second part of the stage is all up and down, so there's big chance Sam won't be there to contest the finish and there's 50 points to take.
So without the dq and everything happening as it has he'd be ahead by 1.
In 2016 and 2018, he won his stages in sprints where that year's fastest men were missing (Cav and Kittel in 2016, Groenewegen and Gaviria in 2018). Which is a pattern in his Tour stage wins; he's rarely won when the absolute pure speedsters were in the mix, and he didn't win any stages in 2014 or 15. So his sprinting this year is probably about where it normally is.
But this year, his team have had to force it to get rid of those types, and that's left them less able to support him at stages that do suit him. Any other year, Sagan would have been the odd-on favourite to win that Lyon stage, and his team would just have controlled the break and tried to coax some work out of CCC or even Quickstep long the route, and save all the matches for that crazy finale.
I do think his climbing has got significantly worse; he was nowhere in Strade Bianche, he couldn't follow the attacks on the Poggio in MSR. So now he has to get his points in the sprint stages, which is hard when there are sprinters who are faster than you who also want to win those sprints.
A Tour to forget. Still very consistent but was weaker than in previous years at the Tour. I'm usually very critical when he underperforms (the isn't the first time), but this was a strange year for cycling and the covid break and a change in schedule certainly had an effect on his form even if he may be slightly declining as a rider. Hopefully he can win a stage at the Giro, it would be a shame if he only won the race to most top 10's without a win.
Without the dq, tactics would have changed considerably. He could have been ahead enough DQS wouldn't have applied all their efforts to control him so a larger buffer would be likely.
I can't imagine Sagan taking his second major sprint sanction without some feeling of victimization. It'd be difficult to maintain the best focus after the dq. He fought pretty hard for awhile.
It was his own fault whether you agree with it or not. He could have finished 3rd or 4th but of course heat of the moment.
And yes tatics would have absolutely changed without it, we don't know what would have happened but I was saying if it all stayed the same he would have been ahead. I would think DQS would keep to win the Jersey any way they can.
I agree with the decision. He can blame the UCI if he wants, too. As noted several times; the sprint run ins are deadly and the pressure to peloton place is worse than ever.
Covid makes it hard to assess what we saw. Some riders perform way below their level, others just blossom. Desperate he was in that sprint: no excuse, it was dangerous. But I'm on the record for not wanting refs to be involved, sprints are for crazy people who do crazy things. That's what it is, always was, always will be.
Slowly but surely Bora is preparing the cycling public for a possible divorce with Sagan after the end of the current contract:
www.t-online.de
Basically, Ackermann to ride the next Tour, and Sagan might be in a support role only...
Ex-Radweltmeister - Bora-Teamchef Denk zu Sagan: Immer "Platz im Tour-Team"
Raubling (dpa) - Der dreimalige Straßenrad-Weltmeister Peter Sagan hat beim deutschen Radrennstall Bora-hansgrohe eine …
www.t-online.de
Basically, Ackermann to ride the next Tour, and Sagan might be in a support role only...
The big rumour is that Sagan will quit road racing and go to MTB, or gravel, or just being a cycling legend out there in the world. And Bora seem to be slowly transitioning to being a German team with the best German riders, trying to get German stage wins in the Tour, and maybe some GC, so Sagan will be a bit left in the lurch.
But what if he were to stick with Specialized and move to Quickstep? Quickstep obviously won't pay him what Bora do, but he's not worth that on current results anyway. And with Quickstep, he would actually get the support in the tail end of classics that he hasn't had himself in, well, ever.
But what if he were to stick with Specialized and move to Quickstep? Quickstep obviously won't pay him what Bora do, but he's not worth that on current results anyway. And with Quickstep, he would actually get the support in the tail end of classics that he hasn't had himself in, well, ever.
I'm not so sure Lefevre is really a Sagan fan... He doesn't really like him that much. Plus, he'd be competing in classics with plenty of Belgians at Leferve's disposal... I think Quickstep is a no go for Sagan. The only way he would end up there is if he accepted below, way below, his market value contract. I don't see it happening, even Sagan isn't that stupid...
Btw, that's an interesting idea him competing in MTB for Specialized... Plus, he was always fond of the States, and California in particular. Said many times, he'd love to move over there... He has huge fanbase in the U.S., he could easily find a nice career there... But after his divorce and limited access to his son such move might not be in his cards anymore... We'll know soon... I'm guessing about this time next year, we'll know
EF could use him. He'd enjoy that environment, I'd guess. Next year is going to be just as weird as this year with C19 still rampant so it's hard to know what will happen. By the way; why do you consider Sagan stupid?I'm not so sure Lefevre is really a Sagan fan... He doesn't really like him that much. Plus, he'd be competing in classics with plenty of Belgians at Leferve's disposal... I think Quickstep is a no go for Sagan. The only way he would end up there is if he accepted below, way below, his market value contract. I don't see it happening, even Sagan isn't that stupid...
Btw, that's an interesting idea him competing in MTB for Specialized... Plus, he was always fond of the States, and California in particular. Said many times, he'd love to move over there... He has huge fanbase in the U.S., he could easily find a nice career there... But after his divorce and limited access to his son such move might not be in his cards anymore... We'll know soon... I'm guessing about this time next year, we'll know
I knew I wasn’t just making it up. But that was 4 years ago.
www.cyclingweekly.com
But yeah, basically he’s too expensive for Lefevere.
Specialized wants Peter Sagan at Etixx-Quick Step next year, but there's a problem
According to HLN.be, Specialized owner Mike Sinyard phoned Etixx-Quick Step owner Patrick Lefevere to discuss the future of Peter Sagan
www.cyclingweekly.com
But yeah, basically he’s too expensive for Lefevere.
Back in the day, before any of them had their breakthrough, Lefevre talked a lot about the impressive numbers by Sagan and Kwiatkowski after a training/analysing session with them. I'm sure he would have loved Sagan on his team, but not the current version as much.
Well, I rate the 2020 version of Sagan far above 2016 version of Gilbert, so I'm sure Lefevre could get Sagan to perform at an equal level to what Gilbert did at his years in QuickStep.
But of course the financial part might be completely different with Sagan compared to Gilbert.
But of course the financial part might be completely different with Sagan compared to Gilbert.
They were even willing to pay some of his salary IIRC which I assume they also do at BoraI knew I wasn’t just making it up. But that was 4 years ago.
Specialized wants Peter Sagan at Etixx-Quick Step next year, but there's a problem
According to HLN.be, Specialized owner Mike Sinyard phoned Etixx-Quick Step owner Patrick Lefevere to discuss the future of Peter Sagan
But yeah, basically he’s too expensive for Lefevere.
In general, not remotely. But ultimately in all of these cases it is determined by sponsorship. If Specialized decide to pay him a comparable amount of money to sell gravel bikes or whatever, then the money is comparable.
Even with that, I doubt that even a rider with the profile of Sagan could come close to matching his road earnings riding gravel and exhibition stuff. I'm sure someone like Lachlan Morton is making about the same amount riding around winning endurance events, but then, I'm pretty sure Morton wasn't a high earner on the road in the first place.
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