He almost won at the top of Cauberg when he was 22, he can clearly do well in Ardennes if they race them like they raced in 2014
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tru tru,i think he is more likely to win amstel than LBL...LBL has a wank finish but is very selective before,a nonclimber like sagan carrying 10 kg on everybody would have to be in phenomenal form to win it
SeriousSam said:
tru tru,i think he is more likely to win amstel than LBL...LBL has a wank finish but is very selective before,a nonclimber like sagan carrying 10 kg on everybody would have to be in phenomenal form to win it
Re: Re:
It's not as simple as 'RVV and PR are both cobbled races'. Yes this is true, but they are completely different races. First of all PR is completely flat, while RVV is hilly, so PR suits the heavier riders like Vandenbergh and Stannard more. But more importantly, the hills require explosive efforts, and there are descents to recover.
In PR however, there is no hiding place. You simply have no time to recover - even the tarmac sections between the cobbled sectors are tiring.
Moreover, your ability on the cobbles, bike handling etc are tested more in PR, simply because the pavé is flat, and so you go over the cobbles at a higher speed. This means each irregularity in the road is amplified, and your wrists are hurt a lot more.
Going back to Sagan, the explosive efforts with time to recover suit him (and guys like Kristoff too). But he simply isn't as good a rouleur as many guys in the peloton, which is essential for PR
pedromiguelmartins said:
It's not as simple as 'RVV and PR are both cobbled races'. Yes this is true, but they are completely different races. First of all PR is completely flat, while RVV is hilly, so PR suits the heavier riders like Vandenbergh and Stannard more. But more importantly, the hills require explosive efforts, and there are descents to recover.
In PR however, there is no hiding place. You simply have no time to recover - even the tarmac sections between the cobbled sectors are tiring.
Moreover, your ability on the cobbles, bike handling etc are tested more in PR, simply because the pavé is flat, and so you go over the cobbles at a higher speed. This means each irregularity in the road is amplified, and your wrists are hurt a lot more.
Going back to Sagan, the explosive efforts with time to recover suit him (and guys like Kristoff too). But he simply isn't as good a rouleur as many guys in the peloton, which is essential for PR
Re:
Definitely Gerrans winning LBL, but now that I've seen it's possible for a LBL to play out like that in modern times, I'd be less surprised to see Sagan winning LBL than I would if he won PR.
However, seeing him hold off Canc and Vanmarcke on the flat at the end today suggests that he may well have a chance next week. But yeah, wouldn't bet on a podium for him
SeriousSam said:
Definitely Gerrans winning LBL, but now that I've seen it's possible for a LBL to play out like that in modern times, I'd be less surprised to see Sagan winning LBL than I would if he won PR.
However, seeing him hold off Canc and Vanmarcke on the flat at the end today suggests that he may well have a chance next week. But yeah, wouldn't bet on a podium for him
Re: Re:
I utterly agree (and made several of these points above). I'd add that Sagan isn't just not as good a rouleur, but he's not a great sprinter after a long and hard race these days (and when is P-R not hard?). If a group including Sagan gets to the finish first, it's very likely to include Cancellara, and reasonably likely to include Kristoff, Stybar, and Vanmarcke. Given the work Sagan's going to need to put in to get to the velodrome with those riders, who are quite simply better on the cobbles, I'd back any of those four in a sprint against him.
Edit: as to the L-B-L v P-R debate, I don't think he can win either this year, but I can see Sagan winning La Doyenne in the next few years far more easily than I can see him winning in Hell. I think (as I wrote) that it would take him work, but it's easily doable. It's worth noting that there's been a lot of talk in the last couple of years about finishing in Liège itself, which would vastly improve Sagan's chances.
PremierAndrew said:
I utterly agree (and made several of these points above). I'd add that Sagan isn't just not as good a rouleur, but he's not a great sprinter after a long and hard race these days (and when is P-R not hard?). If a group including Sagan gets to the finish first, it's very likely to include Cancellara, and reasonably likely to include Kristoff, Stybar, and Vanmarcke. Given the work Sagan's going to need to put in to get to the velodrome with those riders, who are quite simply better on the cobbles, I'd back any of those four in a sprint against him.
Edit: as to the L-B-L v P-R debate, I don't think he can win either this year, but I can see Sagan winning La Doyenne in the next few years far more easily than I can see him winning in Hell. I think (as I wrote) that it would take him work, but it's easily doable. It's worth noting that there's been a lot of talk in the last couple of years about finishing in Liège itself, which would vastly improve Sagan's chances.
Re: Re:
But Gerrans was unlikely to win LBL, which is why his win caused surprise. Sagan winning PR wouldn't cause as much surprise because he's a top favourite for the race, second perhaps only to Cancellara. Perhaps you disagree with that assessment and don't rate his chances at PR at all. If so, you should be very surprised if he does end up winning. At least as surprised as you were when Gerrans won LBL.
The surprise an outcome elicits should be inversely related to how likely you thought it was before it happened.
I'm not following. People brought up 2014/Gerrans because those are the sort of circumstances that might enable Sagan to win LBL. So, let's grant Sagan winning LBL is about as likely as Gerrans was.PremierAndrew said:
But Gerrans was unlikely to win LBL, which is why his win caused surprise. Sagan winning PR wouldn't cause as much surprise because he's a top favourite for the race, second perhaps only to Cancellara. Perhaps you disagree with that assessment and don't rate his chances at PR at all. If so, you should be very surprised if he does end up winning. At least as surprised as you were when Gerrans won LBL.
The surprise an outcome elicits should be inversely related to how likely you thought it was before it happened.
First of all, I think Sagan's roleur abilities are underrated. This season, every time he has attacked early on, the move has sticked. He is not a machine like Cancellara on the flat but he is freaking strong and has, despite his lack of finishing, shown good endurance this season. From the best cobblers only Cancellara, Terpstra and Vanmarcke are stronger roleurs than Sagan but Sagan simply is stronger than both Vanmarcke and Terpstra at least at the moment.
Secondly, he has incredible bike handling skills, very likely the best in the peloton.
Of course he might not be able to follow Cancellara all the way or he might be a victim of tactics due to a point team but he is definitely a top contender for PR
Secondly, he has incredible bike handling skills, very likely the best in the peloton.
Of course he might not be able to follow Cancellara all the way or he might be a victim of tactics due to a point team but he is definitely a top contender for PR
Re: Re:
Of course Sagan has a chance of winning PR, he's been extremely strong this year. But ahead of the likes of Vanmarcke, Stybar, Terpstra, Stannard etc?
And Gerrans' win set a precedent. It was an example of a race playing out in favour of a semi-sprinter.
It's a bit like this. What would you say were the chances of idk, Jurgen Van Der broeck (if he started) winning RVV? Pretty much none right? But let's say he was part of the early breakaway, and it stayed clear, with JVDB winning the sprint. You'd be shocked. But then if I asked you what the chances are of Chris Froome winning the following year's RVV (again assuming he's on the start list), you'd think back to JVDB's win, and suddenly be a lot less surprised if Froome ended up winning RVV.
Or a more realistic example: If Leicester City suddenly win the Premier League this year, would you still be JUST as surprised if Norwich win the league next year?
SeriousSam said:
Of course Sagan has a chance of winning PR, he's been extremely strong this year. But ahead of the likes of Vanmarcke, Stybar, Terpstra, Stannard etc?
And Gerrans' win set a precedent. It was an example of a race playing out in favour of a semi-sprinter.
It's a bit like this. What would you say were the chances of idk, Jurgen Van Der broeck (if he started) winning RVV? Pretty much none right? But let's say he was part of the early breakaway, and it stayed clear, with JVDB winning the sprint. You'd be shocked. But then if I asked you what the chances are of Chris Froome winning the following year's RVV (again assuming he's on the start list), you'd think back to JVDB's win, and suddenly be a lot less surprised if Froome ended up winning RVV.
Or a more realistic example: If Leicester City suddenly win the Premier League this year, would you still be JUST as surprised if Norwich win the league next year?
Re:
As far as I'm aware, this season he's always attacked on climbs, where his explosivity can come to the fore. Over flat and rough cobblestones, he's not as strong as the specialists.
Edit: Norwich will win the Premier League this season, they've got Delia Smith on their side.
Bushman said:
As far as I'm aware, this season he's always attacked on climbs, where his explosivity can come to the fore. Over flat and rough cobblestones, he's not as strong as the specialists.
Edit: Norwich will win the Premier League this season, they've got Delia Smith on their side.
Sagan hasn't shown as much at Paris-Roubaix than at Flanders, although last year he was unlucky with mechanicals. I believe that his best performance to date is 6th, compared to 2nd and 4th at Flanders. It's fair to say that Flanders does suit him more. I wouldn't be surprised, however, if he does win. He is in the form of his life, although it will be hard to beat Fabian.
I notice Gerrans' best placement in LBL before winning it was 6th (2009), while Sagan's best in PR was......................... 6th (2014). SAGAN WILL WIN PR.
It's doable. That rainbow jersey is giving him wings and the second place curse has been broken. He'll be saganing Roubaix.
To Brullnux and TMP402:
If you top-10 the RVV or PR, even once, it means you have the potential to win it. Sagan can win PR, but will he do it (this year)? I don't think so. Cance will win it or die trying.
It was a gamble to let Sagan go, Cance could only catch one of the two, SVM, who was too burned to help chasing Sagan. Instead of blaming Cance's tactics (which is always easy afterwards), I think that credit goes to Sagan: he saw Cance coming back like a raging bull and placed his own acceleration. Once on top with a 12" cushion, a good descent meant 4 more seconds, it was enough. Fabian couldn't both recover from his efforts and make up the ground. Great race, great moves by Sagan. Posts on this forum were already blasting him for doing too much. Well, he did what Benoot said had to be done: be the attacker.
Sometimes it doesn't work, sometimes like today, it does work. More than in Richmond, Peter Sagan demonstrated today what a champion he is. Big props to him. Very big props.
If you top-10 the RVV or PR, even once, it means you have the potential to win it. Sagan can win PR, but will he do it (this year)? I don't think so. Cance will win it or die trying.
It was a gamble to let Sagan go, Cance could only catch one of the two, SVM, who was too burned to help chasing Sagan. Instead of blaming Cance's tactics (which is always easy afterwards), I think that credit goes to Sagan: he saw Cance coming back like a raging bull and placed his own acceleration. Once on top with a 12" cushion, a good descent meant 4 more seconds, it was enough. Fabian couldn't both recover from his efforts and make up the ground. Great race, great moves by Sagan. Posts on this forum were already blasting him for doing too much. Well, he did what Benoot said had to be done: be the attacker.
Sometimes it doesn't work, sometimes like today, it does work. More than in Richmond, Peter Sagan demonstrated today what a champion he is. Big props to him. Very big props.
Re: Re:
You're right, and that's a very astute point you're making. We may have learned something generalisable about what it takes to win LBL when Gerrans won it in 2014, something we weren't aware before. Had we known that before the race, we would have considered Gerrans more likely to win that we did, and we would have been less surprised than we were. And you're right that it's that hypothetical surprise we should compare with the hypothetical surprise we'd experience if Sagan won next week, not the actual one as I claimed.
But it doesn't change much in my view, because I think Sagan is the most likely guy to win next week, except possibly Canc.
I predict he will never, ever be the bookies favourite for LBL. Fwiw, he is, with Canc, for PR.
Leicester City has been utterly shocking to me, along with the the Chelsea unraveling. I still haven't really thought through what it means in terms of how I expect the PL to play out next year.
PremierAndrew said:
You're right, and that's a very astute point you're making. We may have learned something generalisable about what it takes to win LBL when Gerrans won it in 2014, something we weren't aware before. Had we known that before the race, we would have considered Gerrans more likely to win that we did, and we would have been less surprised than we were. And you're right that it's that hypothetical surprise we should compare with the hypothetical surprise we'd experience if Sagan won next week, not the actual one as I claimed.
But it doesn't change much in my view, because I think Sagan is the most likely guy to win next week, except possibly Canc.
I predict he will never, ever be the bookies favourite for LBL. Fwiw, he is, with Canc, for PR.
Leicester City has been utterly shocking to me, along with the the Chelsea unraveling. I still haven't really thought through what it means in terms of how I expect the PL to play out next year.
Re:
TMP402 said:
Rojas is going to win a ****load of races in the next few years then.Brullnux said:
Re: Re:
Also, Sagan's handling skills are only matched by "maybe" Fabian. He looks like a f1 around a circuit. Sagan never falls. Sagan is by far the 2nd best TTer of all of those riders that were mentioned. Sagan has been discussing way more finishes than all of those guys combined.
So let me call BS on your sad theory and quickly state the following:
It will be great to re-read this posts and your ways to downplaying Peter after Roubaix.
Today there was a race, called RVV. In that race, the best riders on the planet participated. Peter Sagan destroyed them all on tactics, flat, explosive climbs, and on flat open roads after 250km + of racing. Today, no rider had more endurance than Sagan. If Sagan is like this at PR (unlikely, mission was accomplished, been trying to win every race already) he drops them all like stones (if the discussion is between the favorites and not second tier riders, as it happens more often than not) when he wants to.PremierAndrew said:
Also, Sagan's handling skills are only matched by "maybe" Fabian. He looks like a f1 around a circuit. Sagan never falls. Sagan is by far the 2nd best TTer of all of those riders that were mentioned. Sagan has been discussing way more finishes than all of those guys combined.
So let me call BS on your sad theory and quickly state the following:
It will be great to re-read this posts and your ways to downplaying Peter after Roubaix.
Re: Re:
Were you one of those hyping up Kwiat before today by any chance?
If I'm wrong, fair enough, I'll admit my judgement was wrong, but of course, it will similarly be great to re-read your post if Sagan doesn't deliver on Sunday
pedromiguelmartins said:
Were you one of those hyping up Kwiat before today by any chance?
If I'm wrong, fair enough, I'll admit my judgement was wrong, but of course, it will similarly be great to re-read your post if Sagan doesn't deliver on Sunday
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