Philipe Gilbert Future Tour de France Champion

[Sophistic]

His victories at FW and LBL changed my opinion on this, you certainly need a bit more than just punch to win at the Mur de Huy.
He is not that heavy(70kg?) and he could adjust his training to a more aerobic based approach.
Gilbert is so much better than everybody else at these 2-3min efforts that there has to be some potential for longer efforts, most likely not for the tour victory but i wouldnt rule out a top 5 spot.

 

[Altitude]

His weight is about the same as Schleck's.

You serious?

 

[maltiv]

He can absolutely be top 10 in TDF if he sacrifices some of his explosiveness. But why on earth would he even do that...

 

[will10]

I can't even believe there's more than 1 person who thinks it's realistic he could even top 10 a GT. Unless they're extending the Eneco Tour to 3 weeks of course.

 

[SC1990]

this.

why did bettini never win the tour ?

Didn't Bettini come 7th in the Giro when Pantani won? Not saying this means puncheurs have a chance at winning, just novel.


Still, it annoys me a little when people ask why Gilbert/Cancellara/Boonen don't try and win the Tour. Answer is surely why bother? Which would you prefer, building a record of winning nearly every classic you entered and retiring a legend or sacrificing all those classics you did so well in to struggle round to 7-12th at the Tour at best. Sure, it would, in a perfect world, be nice to see them try, but in the age of specialisation it seems more sensible for them to concentrate on what they're good at. The Tour ain't everything.

 

[Polyarmour]

You serious?

If you are going to throw a comment in here.....back it up.

According to Wikipedia Gilbert is 67kgs and Schleck is 68kgs. On other occasions I have seen Gilbert's weight reported as 68kgs and even 70kgs. As I said... they are about the same weight.

 

[Jamsque]

Gilbert will win the Tour the day Usain Bolt wins a marathon.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

comparison has nothing to do with being the greatest.
Obviously Pele was the greatest, Cruijff was a great player also.

However johan in the past has said things that make me cringe, eddy has also. Tho on a whole I like eddy more more, I can't say I like JC much. Anyway I said reminds me, doesn't have to remind you of him.

@DT; fair comment, curious as to your pick?

Dennis Bergkamp

 

[El Pistolero]

If you are going to throw a comment in here.....back it up.

According to Wikipedia Gilbert is 67kgs and Schleck is 68kgs. On other occasions I have seen Gilbert's weight reported as 68kgs and even 70kgs. As I said... they are about the same weight.

Yeah, Wikipedia

Never mind Schleck is bigger

Gilbert is 72-70kg. Could easily lose 10 kg if he wants to do a Contador.

 

[function]

Hey Everyone

I've been wondering lately after philipe gilberts amazing show of force in the last couple of weeks. Why couldn't he win the tour de france one day. I mean he can beat the best climbers in the world up 2km climbs with steep gradients, so why can't he beat them in the longer mountains of France. I believe if he really committed himself that he could do it. What is your opinion?

You're certainly going to get a lot of wisecracks with that question, but it's a good question nonetheless. Gilbert won't be able to contend the longer climbs because the energy systems in use over extended climbing (20minutes+) don't favour his physiology (weight, cardiovascular output). He is naturally more suited to short intense efforts (steep 2km climbs) versus longer threshold efforts (20minute+ climbs) where high power output relative to body mass is a key deciding factor.

 

[hfer07]

in all seriousness- I think Gilbert should be aiming Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico & why not the Dauphine.... other than that is just a dream-Like the one Fabian has when he acknowledges his limitation as a GT contender....

 

[maltiv]

I can't even believe there's more than 1 person who thinks it's realistic he could even top 10 a GT. Unless they're extending the Eneco Tour to 3 weeks of course.

You're clearly overestimating the ability one needs to get top 10 in a GT. Hesjedal, Wiggins, Porte and so on...those were no better than Gilbert before they suddenly got into the top 10. He isn't particularly heavy, he's the best climber in the world on short climbs and he can do a decent long time trial, which means that he does not only excel at anaerobic efforts, as some seem to think. So he could definitely make the top 10 by sacrificing some of his other attributes, but it would be pointless and he would probably never make it into the top 5.

 

[El Pistolero]

in all seriousness- I think Gilbert should be aiming Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico & why not the Dauphine.... other than that is just a dream-Like the one Fabian has when he acknowledges his limitation as a GT contender....

Perhaps even the Vuelta when day if he really cared about that. Tour, no. But Vuelta is quite a few levels lower.

Doubt he will ever do anything else than classics though. Perhaps one week stage races. With his form now he could definitely win a stage race like Tirreno-Adriatico.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

You're certainly going to get a lot of wisecracks with that question, but it's a good question nonetheless. Gilbert won't be able to contend the longer climbs because the energy systems in use over extended climbing (20minutes+) don't favour his physiology (weight, cardiovascular output). He is naturally more suited to short intense efforts (steep 2km climbs) versus longer threshold efforts (20minute+ climbs) where high power output relative to body mass is a key deciding factor.

A lot of people are saying that Gilbert doesn't have the ability to sustain long FTP/TT-like efforts, but I recall him finishing top 10 in the Veulta TT last year. And why would power-to-weight ratio not matter on a short climb? you're still going uphill. So, if he has proved that he can climb and has proved that he can sustain high power for a long time, why can't he do both at the same time?

 

[Altitude]

According to Wikipedia Gilbert is 67kgs and Schleck is 68kgs.

That explains it.

 

[maltiv]

A lot of people are saying that Gilbert doesn't have the ability to sustain long FTP/TT-like efforts, but I recall him finishing top 10 in the Veulta TT last year. And why would power-to-weight ratio not matter on a short climb? you're still going uphill. So, if he has proved that he can climb and has proved that he can sustain high power for a long time, why can't he do both at the same time?

This. The only question is whether or not his recovery is good enough.

 

[Altitude]

A lot of people are saying that Gilbert doesn't have the ability to sustain long FTP/TT-like efforts, but I recall him finishing top 10 in the Veulta TT last year. And why would power-to-weight ratio not matter on a short climb? you're still going uphill. So, if he has proved that he can climb and has proved that he can sustain high power for a long time, why can't he do both at the same time?

Power to weight doesn't matter nearly as much on a short climb, which is why guys like Vino and Gilbert are great on them then get dropped like a bag of hammers in the actual mountains. Their weight hampers them when they need to climb at over 5 w/kg for 45 min. Explosiveness means nothing on a climb that lasts 15 km.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Power to weight doesn't matter nearly as much on a short climb, which is why guys like Vino and Gilbert are great on them then get dropped like a bag of hammers in the actual mountains. Their weight hampers them when they need to climb at over 5 w/kg for 45 min. Explosiveness means nothing on a climb that lasts 15 km.

Explosiveness v. the ability to sustain power has nothing to do with one's weight. . .

 

[danjo007]

gilbert simply cannot do the big climbs nor can be competitive enough in the TT's for a GT. end of story.

 

[luckyboy]

Despite all the theoretical talk of power etc. I can't see this ever happening.

 

[function]

A lot of people are saying that Gilbert doesn't have the ability to sustain long FTP/TT-like efforts, but I recall him finishing top 10 in the Veulta TT last year. And why would power-to-weight ratio not matter on a short climb? you're still going uphill. So, if he has proved that he can climb and has proved that he can sustain high power for a long time, why can't he do both at the same time?

Power to weight absolutely matters on short climbs, some riders have higher power to weight ratios for short durations (5min) because they have a high anaerobic work capacity and vo2max. But then their power weight ratio might be lower for longer durations because of less anaerobic contribution.

 

[Ryaguas]

The TDF is about hors categorie climbing

Ehmmm no... Hors categorie just in Il Giro... those are REAL climbs...

No our official stance is that Andy is too strong

uhhhhh... Somebody didn't read the memo...

And ppl dont go for the branches... we are not talking about Gilbert just hitting the top 10 in Le Tour... Climber888 said that Gilbert could be a future Tour de France champion...
That is not going to happen not even in 10 years of him training especifically just for Le Tour... He is not made for that... for example this year He could be losing like 5 or 8 min in Le Galibier...

 

[simo1733]

Despite all the theoretical talk of power etc. I can't see this ever happening.

Gilberts bike is stuck in the big ring.Thats why he monster the short climbs .

 

[brianf7]

He is a great rider and good at what he is doing do it well but a 3 week tour beter left to others.

 

[Bordercollie1]

Time to look at the other classy one dayers who had a crack at the GTs:

Bartoli had a go at the tour in 2001 (Mapei kit next to Ullrich when he gets 'the look' from LA on the Alpe)

Bugno is the best proof that a top one day rider can win the Giro and compete at the Tour. Admittedly the Indurain era tours had less mountain top finishes.

Sarroni won the Giro (albeit in an era when you had to produce an italian passport on the startline)

Cassagrande (remember him?) was a classy classics rider but a no hoper at the Tour until he lost a whopping 7 kilos. Second place at the Giro was his best GT result.

Those were the best I could come up with. Anyone come up with better examples?