Philipe Gilbert Future Tour de France Champion

[El Pistolero]

Time to look at the other classy one dayers who had a crack at the GTs:

Bartoli had a go at the tour in 2001 (Mapei kit next to Ullrich when he gets 'the look' from LA on the Alpe)

Bugno is the best proof that a top one day rider can win the Giro and compete at the Tour. Admittedly the Indurain era tours had less mountain top finishes.

Sarroni won the Giro (albeit in an era when you had to produce an italian passport on the startline)

Cassagrande (remember him?) was a classy classics rider but a no hoper at the Tour until he lost a whopping 7 kilos. Second place at the Giro was his best GT result.

Those were the best I could come up with. Anyone come up with better examples?

Lance Armstrong.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lance Armstrong.

Yeah but for something like that Gilbert needs testicular cancer + after that the best medical program money can buy

 

[jens_attacks]

if he wins ronde and other races he wants next two years,in three years i see him storming the mountains in vuelta.le tour?too difficult,maybe a top ten or something.

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah but for something like that Gilbert needs testicular cancer + after that the best medical program money can buy

As if Schlecks and Contador don't do that already. Or Armstrong's rivals for that matter. Fact is, Armstrong was just better than Ullrich and certainly mentally stronger than most of the adversaries he faced. And that's the most important thing needed in a GT. Not talent. Although that's needed as well.

Anyway still plenty of things to win for Gilbert this season. But one thing is sure, Gesink won't win the Giro dell'Emilia for the third time in a row.

 

[icefire]

Sarroni won the Giro (albeit in an era when you had to produce an italian passport on the startline)

Nope. He did it in an era where the course was taylor made for classics riders such as him and Moser. Hinault beat them all every time he tried

 

[goggalor]

He can't climb and he can't time trial... So probably not.

 

[ergmonkey]

Okay, the 'Gilbert, Man Who Would Be Tour King' crowd has persuaded me to change my mind. Yes, clearly, all Gilbert needs to do is lose a little weight and he will dominate the Tour. I'm thinking his Tour weight should look about like this:

Just get Gilbert down to Jose Rujano's weight, and Phil will surely be the first across the finish line. And by "finish line" I am, of course, referring to cardiac failure and certain death.

 

[Angliru]

Didn't Bettini come 7th in the Giro when Pantani won? Not saying this means puncheurs have a chance at winning, just novel.


Still, it annoys me a little when people ask why Gilbert/Cancellara/Boonen don't try and win the Tour. Answer is surely why bother? Which would you prefer, building a record of winning nearly every classic you entered and retiring a legend or sacrificing all those classics you did so well in to struggle round to 7-12th at the Tour at best. Sure, it would, in a perfect world, be nice to see them try, but in the age of specialisation it seems more sensible for them to concentrate on what they're good at. The Tour ain't everything.

I believe the primary reason that some riders try is just to see what they can accomplish. In the back of their minds they wonder what would happen if they dedicated one season to trying to see what they can do in the Tour. So that they won't go into their retirement wondering "what if I had tried"? Devolder gave it a try and realized it just wasn't meant to be.

 

[Angliru]

A lot of people are saying that Gilbert doesn't have the ability to sustain long FTP/TT-like efforts, but I recall him finishing top 10 in the Veulta TT last year. And why would power-to-weight ratio not matter on a short climb? you're still going uphill. So, if he has proved that he can climb and has proved that he can sustain high power for a long time, why can't he do both at the same time?

I think the most important question is can he recover enough to compete in consecutive mountainous stages of a grand tour? How will he perform in the 3rd week when the intensity in the mountains ramps up?

 

[Angliru]

As if Schlecks and Contador don't do that already. Or Armstrong's rivals for that matter. Fact is, Armstrong was just better than Ullrich and certainly mentally stronger than most of the adversaries he faced. And that's the most important thing needed in a GT. Not talent. Although that's needed as well.

Anyway still plenty of things to win for Gilbert this season. But one thing is sure, Gesink won't win the Giro dell'Emilia for the third time in a row.

Armstrong was extraordinarily lucky. Seven straight Tours with nary an injury or serious crash is just not normal. Ullrich suffered from bad knees in the early years of the Armstrong rise to dominance. Pantani was on the downward slope of his career. Talent is a bit more important than mental strength by the way. Without talent you wouldn't be in a position to have your mental strength tested.

 

[El Pistolero]

Armstrong was extraordinarily lucky. Seven straight Tours with nary an injury or serious crash is just not normal. Ullrich suffered from bad knees in the early years of the Armstrong rise to dominance. Pantani was on the downward slope of his career. Talent is a bit more important than mental strength by the way. Without talent you wouldn't be in a position to have your mental strength tested.

Say that the mister fat ***.

It's still 7-0 for Armstrong.

It is normal. Armstrong hardy raced except the Tour and the Amstel Gold Race(one of the most dangerous races though). He took no risks and that's why he never had injuries and his mental strength kept him focused for 3 weeks to minimize crashes. Just look at the Beloki crash. That was a very quick reaction of Armstrong and one the reasons why he had so little bad luck. Insult him what you like, but he was something special even without the dope. Unlike Ullrich he also never was a fatty and always looked sharp during his GT career.

 

[will10]

Say that the mister fat ***.

It's still 7-0 for Armstrong.

It is normal. Armstrong hardy raced except the Tour and the Amstel Gold Race(one of the most dangerous races though). He took no risks and that's why he never had injuries and his mental strength kept him focused for 3 weeks to minimize crashes. Just look at the Beloki crash. That was a very quick reaction of Armstrong and one the reasons why he had so little bad luck. Insult him what you like, but he was something special even without the dope. Unlike Ullrich he also never was a fatty and always looked sharp during his GT career.

e.g. Hamilton in the form of his life in 2004, who knows what he could've done in that Tour, one bit of bad luck, crash right in front of him, Tour over. Lance was exceptionally lucky in that respect in the Tour.

 

[maltiv]

He can't climb and he can't time trial... So probably not.

42 KM vuelta espana TT 2010

1 Peter Velits Team HTC-Columbia 52.43
2 Denis Mensjov Rabobank + 0.12
3 Fabian Cancellara Team Saxo Bank + 0.37
4 Gustav Larsson Team Saxo Bank + 0.50
5 Luis León Sánchez Caisse d'Epargne + 1.03
6 Leif Hoste Omega Pharma-Lotto + 1.07
7 David Zabriskie Garmin-Transitions + 1.10
8 Carlos Barredo Quick Step + 1.14
9 Philippe Gilbert Omega Pharma-Lotto + 1.24
10 David Millar Garmin-Transitions + 1.27

27.8 km TT 2009

1 David Millar (GBR) Garmin-Slipstream 35' 53"
2 Samuel Sánchez (ESP) Euskaltel-Euskadi + 5"
3 Cadel Evans (AUS) Silence-Lotto + 9"
4 Gustavo César Veloso (ESP) Xacobeo-Galicia + 20"
5 Roman Kreuziger (CZE) Liquigas + 30"
6 Philippe Gilbert (BEL) Silence-Lotto + 34"
7 Alejandro Valverde (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne + 36"

He clearly can't TT at all...

 

[Frosty]

Somebody may have already suggested this, but if he is riding the Tour this year then he may treat it as a sort of test of what he might be able to do in the future? The early uphill finishes will be his main aim, along with yellow after stage 1 and maybe the points jersey in the early stages. However, when it comes to the mountains maybe he will push it hard and see if he can recover from day to day? Dont think he would finish high up, his training hasnt been tailored towards recovering from day to day in July. Lotto will have VDB and Greipel to look after so team bosses may not be that amused with him wearing himself out if there is no need for the team. Having said that one or both of those may fail. Just seems like a good test as he would normally look to peak for the spring classics and autumn classics. He would be too tired from the Spring classics for the Giro while the Vuelta is used as preparation for the autumn classics and the worlds. Normally the tour would be when he is looking to build form again for the Vuelta so this may be the only time in some years he can test his 3-week ability?

 

[boomcie]

Somebody may have already suggested this, but if he is riding the Tour this year then he may treat it as a sort of test of what he might be able to do in the future? The early uphill finishes will be his main aim, along with yellow after stage 1 and maybe the points jersey in the early stages. However, when it comes to the mountains maybe he will push it hard and see if he can recover from day to day? Dont think he would finish high up, his training hasnt been tailored towards recovering from day to day in July. Lotto will have VDB and Greipel to look after so team bosses may not be that amused with him wearing himself out if there is no need for the team. Having said that one or both of those may fail. Just seems like a good test as he would normally look to peak for the spring classics and autumn classics. He would be too tired from the Spring classics for the Giro while the Vuelta is used as preparation for the autumn classics and the worlds. Normally the tour would be when he is looking to build form again for the Vuelta so this may be the only time in some years he can test his 3-week ability?

He won't go all out in the Tour. He'll go for yellow, pick a few stages and maybe help out VDB a little.

 

[Frosty]

He won't go all out in the Tour. He'll go for yellow, pick a few stages and maybe help out VDB a little.

Why are you so sure? What you suggest is probably what the standard idea for a rider of Gilbert's quality would be yet all i am saying is that maybe he will see an option that may not come up again for many years

 

[boomcie]

Why are you so sure? What you suggest is probably what the standard idea for a rider of Gilbert's quality would be yet all i am saying is that maybe he will see an option that may not come up again for many years

He needs the energy for the remainder of the season. It just won't happen Frosty, despite the window of opportunity you're suggesting.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

Power to weight absolutely matters on short climbs, some riders have higher power to weight ratios for short durations (5min) because they have a high anaerobic work capacity and vo2max. But then their power weight ratio might be lower for longer durations because of less anaerobic contribution.

Right. And his performance in TTs suggest that he also has the ability to sustainb power for a longer amount of time.

 

[Fowsto Cope-E]

He needs the energy for the remainder of the season. It just won't happen Frosty, despite the window of opportunity you're suggesting.

I don't know, he has plenty of time to recover for worlds and GdL.

 

[Frosty]

He needs the energy for the remainder of the season. It just won't happen Frosty, despite the window of opportunity you're suggesting.

Fair enough. Quite how you can be 100% sure i dont know, even if he says now he will take it as easy as possible on any stage where there is not a possible stage win or jersey then who knows what he might do when he is actually there. Might be a help to VDB if he is at the bottom of the last climb in a select 30 strong group anyway. FWIW i think he'll go for the early uphill finishes and once they are over either go try to get into a few breakaways or push it hard on a few mountain stages as well as having quite a few rest days. The World's doesnt favour him this year so he may not be too worried about that anyway, although Giro di lombardia's recent results do not include many people who went hard in the tour. San Sebastian could be a good target for him after the tour.

 

[boomcie]

Fair enough. Quite how you can be 100% sure i dont know, even if he says now he will take it as easy as possible on any stage where there is not a possible stage win or jersey then who knows what he might do when he is actually there. Might be a help to VDB if he is at the bottom of the last climb in a select 30 strong group anyway. FWIW i think he'll go for the early uphill finishes and once they are over either go try to get into a few breakaways or push it hard on a few mountain stages as well as having quite a few rest days. The World's doesnt favour him this year so he may not be too worried about that anyway, although Giro di lombardia's recent results do not include many people who went hard in the tour. San Sebastian could be a good target for him after the tour.

I'm not 100% sure. That would be crazy .

 

[Polyarmour]

Yeah, Wikipedia

Never mind Schleck is bigger

Gilbert is 72-70kg. Could easily lose 10 kg if he wants to do a Contador.

10kgs? I don't think so. He is already as skinny as a rake. If he lost any weight at all the only place it could come off would be his leg muscles.

 

[function]

Right. And his performance in TTs suggest that he also has the ability to sustainb power for a longer amount of time.

Right, but its the high power to weight ratio for TT time durations that is needed for gt climbs. Anyway Which TT results did you have in mind?

 

[Frosty]

I'm not 100% sure. That would be crazy .

Don't write like you are then

 

[boomcie]

Don't write like you are then

I guess