Philipe Gilbert Future Tour de France Champion

[Ramira]

But, but, but... so many people say this is impossible... why does Gilbert even try?

There's a difference between trying to win the tour, and seeing how good you are against the best. He's going to try the latter not the former.

 

[Franklin]

There's a difference between trying to win the tour, and seeing how good you are against the best. He's going to try the latter not the former.

Considering the posts here getting top 10 at the Vuelta might be possible in the future and certainly not worth giving up his classics career... As there has never been a classic specialist who won a GT (ok Kelly, doesn't count... uhm Jalabert doesn't count... ohhhh Di Luca doesn't count, ahhhh Valverde also doesn't count).

From your post I might almost think you also claim it's impossible he will ever win a GT?

*I personally find it unlikely, but history seems to show it is possible*

 

[Parrulo]

the vuelta was different when kelly won it.

jaja rode in the 90's and di luca and piti aren't exactly the best examples out there.

 

[Jan the Man]

The cannibal and hinault seemed to make a career ou of multiple gc and classic wins

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Vuelta was very different back in Kelly's day, Jalabert was a completely changed man, far more than we've seen from Gilbert, and di Luca and Valverde showed much more stage-racing promise in their early careers than Gilbert has (di Luca 2nd in País Vasco 2000 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2002, then winning Brixia in 2004; Valverde was 3rd in the Vuelta in 2003 before he'd won any one-day race bigger than the Klasika Primavera and so was a GC man at least as long as he's been a classics man).

Gilbert might just be able to manage a top 10 here or there if there's a high attrition rate and he changes himself fundamentally, but is that really worth potentially sacrificing his other side for?

 

[Ramira]

Considering the posts here getting top 10 at the Vuelta might be possible in the future and certainly not worth giving up his classics career... As there has never been a classic specialist who won a GT (ok Kelly, doesn't count... uhm Jalabert doesn't count... ohhhh Di Luca doesn't count, ahhhh Valverde also doesn't count).

From your post I might almost think you also claim it's impossible he will ever win a GT?

*I personally find it unlikely, but history seems to show it is possible*

Personally I don't think he will give up his classics career for the GC for at least 3 years (I don't think there's anything he wants more then a 2nd LBL right now) he'll be 32 by then so maybe if he goes all out he might have a shot at winning the Vuelta (with the amount top GC riders riding the last few Giro's I doubt he could win it) but I don't see him having any shot any time soon. I don't think the switch is impossible I just think it's very hard and the payoff is unlikely to be worth the risk for someone like Gilbert. Maybe if he loses his punch (like Jalabert did in his sprints) he might make the switch but that's quite a few years away.

From what I remember both Valverde and Di Luca also were quite a bit lighter even when they where classics riders and also regularly competed for GC podium places in shorter climbers/hilly tours, something Gilbert has not yet shown.

That being said I simply don't think it's possible to make a prediction about Gilbert's GC potential now apart from the fact he'll never win the Tour (that I'm certain of). Although winning a GC seems quite a long shot, unless there's going to be a relatively low mountain Vuelta in the future. Right now he relies mostly on an incredible burst due to his fast-twitch muscles, in order for him to become a true climber he'd have to be capable of transforming his muscles into those more fitting for long climbs, something I'm not sure his talent allows him. But to say he couldn't possibly do it before he's ever tried with someone as talented as he is seems to me about as silly as saying he'll surely win the TDF in the future.

 

[Franklin]

di luca and piti aren't exactly the best examples out there.

Why not? Because they are "special and evil"?

No, I don't want to go to the clinic on this one, but they surely show that even recently classic specialists became GT contenders.

Denying this is so knee-jerky.

 

[Sylvester]

di Luca and Valverde showed much more stage-racing promise in their early careers than Gilbert has

Never ever underestimate the Ster ZLM Toer. And Paris-Corrèze. Don't forget about Paris-Corrèze.

 

[Franklin]

SNIP FOR BREVITY

100% agreed.

Though if he gets top 10 in the TdF this year he will switch sooner(my opinion) and considering the competition this isn't that farfetched.

And yes, I'm not sure it will be the right decision, but I think he will do it anyway.

We will see if my hunch is wrong (I'm just as much guessing as anyone here).

 

[El Pistolero]

The Vuelta was very different back in Kelly's day, Jalabert was a completely changed man, far more than we've seen from Gilbert, and di Luca and Valverde showed much more stage-racing promise in their early careers than Gilbert has (di Luca 2nd in País Vasco 2000 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2002, then winning Brixia in 2004; Valverde was 3rd in the Vuelta in 2003 before he'd won any one-day race bigger than the Klasika Primavera and so was a GC man at least as long as he's been a classics man).

Gilbert might just be able to manage a top 10 here or there if there's a high attrition rate and he changes himself fundamentally, but is that really worth potentially sacrificing his other side for?

Yes, and Pozzato showed a lot more classics potential in his early career than Gilbert. Look at them now.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, and Pozzato showed a lot more classics potential in his early career than Gilbert. Look at them now.

Pozzato's still a strong classics rider, he's just not very strong tactically.

Either way, it's a lot easier to swallow a "classics specialist" who was 3rd in a GT at the start of his career and has won countless stage races turning into a GT winner than a guy who can count the Ronde van België as his biggest stage racing triumph.

Valverde isn't, and has never been, a "classics specialist" the way Gilbert is. He's always been a stage racer AND hilly classics man.

 

[Sylvester]

Some guys who made the top 10 of the Tour in (very) recent history:

Andrea Peron
Daniele Nardello
Marcos Serrano
Andrei Kivilev
François Simon
Georg Totschnig
Cyril Dessel
Michael Rogers
Kim Kirchen
Mikel Astarloza
Bradley Wiggins
Christophe Le Mevel
Ryder Hesjedal
Chris Horner

Gilbert would certainly not be the odd one out. However, I can't see him win the Tour in the near future, and I doubt he would sacrifice (at least a part of) his classics campaign for a shot at a 6th place in the Tour or a Vuelta podium.

 

[roundabout]

Pais Vasco and Tirreno-Adriatico of the early 2000 don't mean a lot in terms of GC potential. Sharing the podium with people like Dekker and Freire says it all.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

the vuelta was different when kelly won it.

jaja rode in the 90's and di luca and piti aren't exactly the best examples out there.

jaja rode in the 90s which was a testament to his skills because at least he didn't ride with 60% hematocrite like gewiss or some other obscure opponents, miceli, pistore etc.

jalabert was a supertalent

 

[roundabout]

Some guys who made the top 10 of the Tour in (very) recent history:

Andrea Peron
Daniele Nardello
Marcos Serrano
Andrei Kivilev
François Simon
Georg Totschnig
Cyril Dessel
Michael Rogers
Kim Kirchen
Mikel Astarloza
Bradley Wiggins
Christophe Le Mevel
Ryder Hesjedal
Chris Horner

Gilbert would certainly not be the odd one out. However, I can't see him win the Tour in the near future, and I doubt he would sacrifice (at least a part of) his classics campaign for a shot at a 6th place in the Tour or a Vuelta podium.

Considering that there are clinic dwellers, people who even clinic things considered had more stage racing results than Gilbert and people who benefited from breakaways Gilbert would certainly be an odd one out.

 

[boomcie]

Has Gillbert dyed his hair?

Yiap, as some form of celebration after winning the Belgian National Championships.

The way I understood it, he dyed it blonde because it would go well with the yellow jersey. For the same reason he bought a yellow watch and put it on immediately after the finish of the first stage.

 

[El Pistolero]

The way I understood it, he dyed it blonde because it would go well with the yellow jersey. For the same reason he bought a yellow watch and put it on immediately after the finish of the first stage.

Glad he doesn't ride the Vuelta this year

 

[boomcie]

Glad he doesn't ride the Vuelta this year

Yeah, Giro would also have been pretty memorable.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Some guys who made the top 10 of the Tour in (very) recent history:

Andrea Peron
Daniele Nardello
Marcos Serrano
Andrei Kivilev
François Simon
Georg Totschnig
Cyril Dessel
Michael Rogers
Kim Kirchen
Mikel Astarloza
Bradley Wiggins
Christophe Le Mevel
Ryder Hesjedal
Chris Horner

Gilbert would certainly not be the odd one out. However, I can't see him win the Tour in the near future, and I doubt he would sacrifice (at least a part of) his classics campaign for a shot at a 6th place in the Tour or a Vuelta podium.

If you're about to tell me Gilbert is going to be as good in the high mountains as Horner, Astarloza, Kirchen or Totschnig, I will respond with a huge WTF. Those guys could all always climb pretty well. Totschnig top 10ed the Giro in his 3rd year and the Vuelta the year after.

He'd need the form of his life to manage to achieve at the level of Kim Kirchen, who was showing capabilities on long climbs with good results in the Tour de Suisse back in '03.

Most of the guys that have been named as classics specialists that turned into GC men showed some level of stage racing ability or ability to get over long or difficult mountains early on in their career. Gilbert simply hasn't done this.

 

[El Pistolero]

Gilbert simply has never tried. All these guys are Italian, Spanish or American- they grow up with GTs. Phil grew up with hilly classics.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Kim Kirchen grew up with GTs and not the Ardennes?

Kirchen is a hilly classics rider who turned into a GC rider. But he got to the lower end of the top 10, and that was as a good ITT rider and after several years of good stage racing results that started in his 3rd year as a pro. Gilbert's in his 9th pro season and hasn't done a single thing over the big mountains, and precious little in ITTs. And is much better than Kirchen ever was in the Classics. Why would you sacrifice it for the off-chance of coming 7th or 8th in the Tour (which I still rate as much less likely from Gilbert than it was from Kimmy)?

I'm still resentful of the idea of Alejandro Valverde as a "classics specialist turned GC rider". That's very dismissive of the all-round abilities of the man.

 

[DenisMenchov]

We must give Gilbert a chance at least, Who would have thought that Wiggins can climb???

Gilbert never tried, but maybe he can, I hope so.

 

[El Pistolero]

Kim Kirchen grew up with GTs and not the Ardennes?

Kirchen is a hilly classics rider who turned into a GC rider. But he got to the lower end of the top 10, and that was as a good ITT rider and after several years of good stage racing results that started in his 3rd year as a pro. Gilbert's in his 9th pro season and hasn't done a single thing over the big mountains, and precious little in ITTs. And is much better than Kirchen ever was in the Classics. Why would you sacrifice it for the off-chance of coming 7th or 8th in the Tour (which I still rate as much less likely from Gilbert than it was from Kimmy)?

I'm still resentful of the idea of Alejandro Valverde as a "classics specialist turned GC rider". That's very dismissive of the all-round abilities of the man.

Kim Kirchen is the living proof that Phil can top 10 actually. Phil said in a press conference today that he has never climbed better in his career than now and that he's improving every day.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

Why is gilly such a one paced pony? Punch r bust Can u not cycle?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

We must give Gilbert a chance at least, Who would have thought that Wiggins can climb???

Gilbert never tried, but maybe he can, I hope so.

Actually, he did try. Xorret del Cati last year. It wasn't a huge success by any stretch...