Pick the Podium for the Tour de France 2010

[Ferminal]

Contador
Menchov
Wigggggggggggans

 

[Sasquatch]

I agree Menchov is a real threat - he looked very menacing at times in Romandie.

One who has not been mentioned on this thread but has had very solid build up with 2 stage race wins including winning the 2nd most important race in the world against everyone's best team prize favourite with everything to lose is Mick Rogers (assuming Tony Martin is working with/for him again rather than the reverse) - the long TT will suit him.

That said - 1) Conti; 2) A Schleck 3) Evans.

Boring it may turn out to be but as IP points out there are a lot of potentially strong candidates (best field for some time) so anything could happen (except that first is almost a given).

If Rogers was on a team that didn't have a sprinter, I would say yes, he would be up there for top 5 and potentially top 3.

The fact is Martin won't be able to help him because he'll be on the front every day keeping the break in check for Cavendish to win.

Rogers will be on his own. It's a shame, but it's the way it goes.

If they brought this team in, he would be a strong chance.

1. Michael Rogers
2. Tony Martin
3. Kanstantsin Sivtsov
4. Bert Grabsch
5. Michael Albasini
6. Maxime Monfort
7. Mark Cavendish
8. Mark Renshaw
9. Bernhard Eisel

Rogers, Martin, Sivtsov, Monfort, Albasini don't work the lead out train. Sit back in the peloton with the main favourites.

Renshaw, Eisel and Grabsch set up Cavendish.

 

[manolo]

...This grand tour has about 15 contenders for the top 5[!]... Imagine this field at the Giro course 2010...

Yeah. I wish the Tour would do away with those mountain stages with 20, 30, and up to 50KM's after the last climb. I agree. It'd be fun to see the ascents and mountainstop finishes of the Giro with al the Tour contenders there.

On the other hand, I wish the giro would have extremely long time trials regularly! Those really do change the GC landscape!

 

[Njbb1995]

A.Schleck
Contadork
D Zabriskie

 

[Cerberus]

contador, menchov and someone like Nibali or Samu Sanchez. i really dont believe A.Schleck will gain 2 or 3 minutes on these guys in the mountains before the 50 km ITT. poor time trial gonna kill his chances for podium. but who knows

In 2008 where Andy schleck was out of contention for anything but the White jersey, which wasn't really threatened he lost only 2 minutes to Menchov and Evans and 1 minute to Sanchez over a 53 k TT. He gained 21 seconds on Nibali on the admitably not quite flat TT in 2009. If Andy Schleck has fully recovered from his early season problems he probably can gain 2-3 minutes in the mountains and he'll need a lot less for the TT.

 

[Thee_chisa]

i think

1- Conta
2/3 either wiggins or andy schleck.

i reckon that wiggins is training specifically for the tour and schleck has had a bad early season. the big TT will have wiggo and conta taking 1-2 mins of people like andy and i think frank will lose about 3 mins at least. same with some of the other climbers.

i can't see menchov doing anything as he often gets hyped up (2006) and does f uck all as he tends to crack at least once and lose big time on the cols.

i don't think sastre has it anymore and i don't think evans will have a strong enough team for the race.

i can see armstong trying to do the old "team at the front on the hills" move but eventually not having the legs to go with the leaders.

basso, i dunno, is he really making an effort for the tour?

kloden, no chance - have you ever noticed how kloden tends not to finish first?

would be nice to see someone come and give contador a smack in the mountains but i doubt it this year, maybe the amount of contenders will trouble contador as he will be getting attacked from all angles and will have a lot of defending to do. he may lose time in the first few stages too.

hope it is a great race though!

 

[Climbing]

Hello everyone, I'm new to the forum!
It's cool to be with so many fans!

My prediction for the podium:
Contador
Basso
some outsider (or maybe Menchov wich is in decent form)

But beware of Basso, because he is in very good shape (and entered good form only in the third week of Giro).

I don't think Schleck will recover well enough from the bad first part of the season.
Someone mentioned Nibali, but as it stands he will not be at the TdF (he will run as captain in the Vuelta); I see a bright future for him!

 

[Anonymous]

Contador
Baby Schleck
and erm..

Geraint Thomas

 

[L'arriviste]

I voted for Contador and two "Others", though obviously you can't select "Others" twice.

It's high time we had some new faces, some other folks to talk about. Schleck doesn't seem to have what it takes this year and most of the rest are beat. So I don't know who, but they'll be known guys just not really predicted.

 

[Credive]

I voted for Contador and two "Others", though obviously you can't select "Others" twice.

Of course. Contador and A Scleck on the two first spots is so obvious

 

[maltiv]

Contador
Baby Schleck
and erm..

Geraint Thomas

Nah, are you crazy? The top 3 will surely be:

Contador
A Schleck
Lars Petter Nordhaug (he was 29th in fleche wallone so contador most certainly fears his awesome climbing abilities).

 

[auscyclefan94]

In 2008 where Andy schleck was out of contention for anything but the White jersey, which wasn't really threatened he lost only 2 minutes to Menchov and Evans and 1 minute to Sanchez over a 53 k TT. He gained 21 seconds on Nibali on the admitably not quite flat TT in 2009. If Andy Schleck has fully recovered from his early season problems he probably can gain 2-3 minutes in the mountains and he'll need a lot less for the TT.

Maybe you should deep a little deeper about those stages and there profiles.

 

[Cerberus]

Maybe you should deep a little deeper about those stages and there profiles.

Sure, here is the 53 km 2008 TT profile: http://www.letour.fr/2008/TDF/COURSE/us/2000/etape_par_etape.html
Note the absence of any significant climb. Not 100% pancake flat, but nothing categorised. Perhaps if you could say what you point was?

 

[Sophistic]

Contador
Evans
Wiggins

This is not a TDF designed for A.Schleck(or his brother) or Basso, 61km of flat TT and the mountain stages are not that difficult, there are only two stages(14,17) that somewhat favor "diesel" riders.
If Evans can recover from the Giro properly and stay healthy this time, he should definietly be up there(no TTT!haha). Wiggins didnt look superstrong in the Giro, but 1-2kg less, no Zoncolan, no Gavia, no Plan de Corones and you have a case
for such a strong time trialist.

 

[Climbing]

For the TdF standards I think there are many climbings; of course the TdF mountains aren't as steep as Giro's ones, but they are longer.
On those climbings if you have a strong team, you got a great advantage.
This should favour Contador and Basso, but you never know for sure.
The TT comes in the end and this we know for experience should favour the specialist only if they got the legs left.
I don't think neither Evans or Wiggins will get the podium, even if I like Evans fighting spirit very much!

 

[manolo]

Third will be Sammy Sanchez. Some nice descents for him...

I wonder if he'll have enough descents to pull that off. He was fantastic on the Alpe D'Huez in the 2008 Tour, 2nd on the stage. It's too bad about his time trialing in that last TT, though. Hope you're right!

 

[auscyclefan94]

Sure, here is the 53 km 2008 TT profile: http://www.letour.fr/2008/TDF/COURSE/us/2000/etape_par_etape.html
Note the absence of any significant climb. Not 100% pancake flat, but nothing categorised. Perhaps if you could say what you point was?

2009 itt I was reffering to the profile. Cat 3 climb. Schleck will lose big time. If Conti lost 1:46 of a flat tt today schleck will lose at least another minute. I understand that Conti was not at his best but neither is the rest of the field and it isn't a high quality field. Only menchov and contador.

 

[Cerberus]

2009 itt I was reffering to the profile. Cat 3 climb. Schleck will lose big time. If Conti lost 1:46 of a flat tt today schleck will lose at least another minute. I understand that Conti was not at his best but neither is the rest of the field and it isn't a high quality field. Only menchov and contador.

As you say Conti wasn't in shape, the result signifies little for Contador and nothing for Schleck. As I said in a comparable TT in 2008 with little incentive to actually make a real effort (his starting pace was extremely low IIRC) Andy lost 1 minute to Sanchez and 2 minutes to Evans and Menchov. During the shorter (30k) TT on stage 4 of 2008 he even beat Sanchez and only lost a minute to Menchov and Evans. Sure there was a climb in 2009, but it Nibali is a good climber to, it doesn't make several minutes worth of difference. I say 1-2 minute loss to Menchov and Evans is more likely and less to Nibali and Sanchez, perhaps nothing at all. Clearly AS is one of the weakest contenders against the clock in the Tour, but he's not that bad.

 

[Denkoff]

Le Tour de France 2010 GC after stage 21:
1. Denis Menchov (Rus)
2. Vladimir Karpets (Rus)
3. Egor Silin (Rus)

 

[Cerberus]

Le Tour de France 2010 GC after stage 21:
1. Denis Menchov (Rus)
2. Vladimir Karpets (Rus)
3. Egor Silin (Rus)

I believe you're looking for the "Pick Your 2010 Tour de France Dream Podium" thread.

 

[Denkoff]

Yeah and Kolobnev will win at fifteen stages

 

[Kwibus]

1. Contador

Does anyone really see anyone else win the TdF? I really hope he gets some serious competition, but I just don't see it happening.

2-3.
-A. Schleck
-Gesink
-F.Schleck
-Menchov
-Amstrong?
-Kreuziger
-Probably some guys i'm forgetting.

I don't see Basso or Evans perform really good during the TdF. Recent history has shown that being good in the Giro means your not in top condition/form for the TdF.

 

[Nikoloz]

radioshack will ruin kloedens shot by riding for LA

Huh? LA'll put a pillow over Kloden's face at night before he'd let that happen.

/-:

)-:
..............................

1. ?????

2. kloden

3. ?????

)-:

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I wonder if he'll have enough descents to pull that off. He was fantastic on the Alpe D'Huez in the 2008 Tour, 2nd on the stage. It's too bad about his time trialing in that last TT, though. Hope you're right!

Yea but Sánchez's ITT is waaaaay better than it was then, compare his 2008 Tour ITTs to his 2009 Vuelta ITTs.

The counteraction to that, of course, is that both ITTs in the '09 Vuelta were quite short, in the 25-35km range. Even so, that's the sort of range of the stage 4 ITT in the 2008 Tour, and in THAT he lost a minute to Andy Schleck of all people. By the end of 2009 he was beating Cadel Evans over that distance on a pancake flat ITT.

 

[manolo]

... Sánchez's ITT is way better than it was...

I'm rooting for him, but his 48th place, 4:14 down on Jani Brajkovic in the Dauphine makes me think he can't get near the podium in July