I see a lot of discussion about how much time Andy needs over contador, and whether this "yellow jersey effect" will get him to time trial like he never has time trialled before.
So how much time does he need
So how much time does he need
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Chef_Vodnik said:I'm wondering about the TT, really.
Consider this: It's not a specifically technical course as far as I can tell. To my understanding this means there's no need for rapid acceleration and handling and more of a need of good aero positioning, something that can be trained and that has nothing to do with physiology of a rider.
Just look how good F. Schleck did on the Suisse TT. I can recall people talking about him being very aero and calm on the bike, not waggling about like he used to.
Therefor I am under the impression that Contador won't dish out that much of an advantage onto Schleck. Still, 45" seem about right.
Or am I missing/misinterpreting too much here?
scribe said:Dial back to Monday, he needed a 1:20 gap, in my estimate. Frankly, I think Shrek is broke mentally now. Barring a miracle stroke of bad luck to berto, I don't think this is a real topic of discussion.
Scott SoCal said:I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.
I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?
I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.
Scott SoCal said:I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.
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Cerberus said:I'm not sure if Contador was trying to drop Sanchez and Menchov, he might have wanted company for the descent. Imagine if Contador had dropped them, Andy might very well have caught them and instead of descending with Sanchez and Menchov against Schleck, he'd be descending alone against Schleck Sanchez and Menchov, more energy used for quite probably less time gained.
Cerberus said:I'm not sure if Contador was trying to drop Sanchez and Menchov, he might have wanted company for the descent. Imagine if Contador had dropped them, Andy might very well have caught them and instead of descending with Sanchez and Menchov against Schleck, he'd be descending alone against Schleck Sanchez and Menchov, more energy used for quite probably less time gained.
Scott SoCal said:Perhaps. Frankly, I don't think AC is that calculating. More fitting with his racing style would be going au bloc to put as much time as possible in to his major rival.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Tree Fiddy
Scott SoCal said:I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.
I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?
I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.
If Andy is up by 1:30 after tomorrow, he wins the TdF.
Perhaps. Frankly, I don't think AC is that calculating. More fitting with his racing style would be going au bloc to put as much time as possible in to his major rival.
The Hitch said:good analysis. Then again, schleck lost 45 seconds in the 8 k prologue. Som can he really limit his losses to that over 50 km.
ttrider said:Course is bad for AC though, no climb, longer than 40km and pan flat
hes superior but only by a minute and 15
Publicus said:I've seen a couple of folks repeat that, but it seems they are not considering the situation. AC WANTED them with him on the descent. Just like he wanted Andy with him on the descent of the Madeleine (sp). Sanchez is a phenomenal descender, so who better to set the lines. And Menchov wasn't going to let Sanchez go, so they both were going to be there.
So I don't think it says much about his ability to drop Menchov or Sanchez. At least in my opinion.
In this instance, in your opinion, was the best tactical move to (A) drop Menchov and Sanchez and have them contribute with a fast closing Andy, or (B) work with Menchov and Sanchez to get maximum time on Andy?
Scott SoCal said:Well, I think AC would normally take as much time on the ascent as possible.
On the descent he would have been caught and then collaborated with whomever bridged up. But, going up, AC was full gas and that's all he had, IMO
Publicus said:so why didn't he do that on the Madeleine? And if he attacked and dropped Menchov and Sanchez, why would they work with him on the descent? Wouldn't they try to put time into him at that point?
And if you were in AC's position (but not AC), what would be the correct tactical decision (assuming you were a GC contender, etc.)?
LKing25 said:I read in an article in the Daily Telegraph that A Schleck rode the last 2.8km of the Port De Bales 35 seconds quicker than AC so if he can get a gap i reckon he could put in serious time to AC before the ITT.