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Poll. What gap does Andy Schleck need over Alberto Contador going into the final tt.

How much time does Schleck need going into the final tt, to win in paris.

  • He will beat contador in the time trial.

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
  • Poll closed .
Jul 22, 2009
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Dial back to Monday, he needed a 1:20 gap, in my estimate. Frankly, I think Shrek is broke mentally now. Barring a miracle stroke of bad luck to berto, I don't think this is a real topic of discussion.
 
Jul 15, 2009
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I'm wondering about the TT, really.

Consider this: It's not a specifically technical course as far as I can tell. To my understanding this means there's no need for rapid acceleration and handling and more of a need of good aero positioning, something that can be trained and that has nothing to do with physiology of a rider.

Just look how good F. Schleck did on the Suisse TT. I can recall people talking about him being very aero and calm on the bike, not waggling about like he used to.

Therefor I am under the impression that Contador won't dish out that much of an advantage onto Schleck. Still, 45" seem about right.

Or am I missing/misinterpreting too much here?
 
Chef_Vodnik said:
I'm wondering about the TT, really.

Consider this: It's not a specifically technical course as far as I can tell. To my understanding this means there's no need for rapid acceleration and handling and more of a need of good aero positioning, something that can be trained and that has nothing to do with physiology of a rider.

Just look how good F. Schleck did on the Suisse TT. I can recall people talking about him being very aero and calm on the bike, not waggling about like he used to.

Therefor I am under the impression that Contador won't dish out that much of an advantage onto Schleck. Still, 45" seem about right.

Or am I missing/misinterpreting too much here?


good analysis. Then again, schleck lost 45 seconds in the 8 k prologue. Som can he really limit his losses to that over 50 km.
 
Mar 10, 2009
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Just posted in another thread that Contador was 37 seconds ahead of Schlecklet after the 8.9km prologue. Extrapolating that to the final TT, that's a differential of more than 3 minutes. However, in the sprit of the 'yellow jersey effect', I voted >2'30".

Schlecklet's going to need a hell of a ride tomorrow....
 
May 13, 2009
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Assuming a good AC performance:

1:30 with yellow jersey + the ride of his life

2:00 without the yersey + the ride of his life.

2:30 without the jersey and an average AS performance

3:00 if he still hasn't figured out how to use his SRAM drivetrain:p

BTW, Frank Schleck is better than Andy on TTs

It is always good to ride after your rivals so you know their times, but this is assuming that you have the legs to match their times and you are using the statistics to dose the effort, etc.
 
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Tree Fiddy
 
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Anonymous

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Dial back to Monday, he needed a 1:20 gap, in my estimate. Frankly, I think Shrek is broke mentally now. Barring a miracle stroke of bad luck to berto, I don't think this is a real topic of discussion.

I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.

I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?

I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.

If Andy is up by 1:30 after tomorrow, he wins the TdF.
 
Aug 6, 2009
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Scott SoCal said:
I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.

I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?

I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.

I'm not sure if Contador was trying to drop Sanchez and Menchov, he might have wanted company for the descent. Imagine if Contador had dropped them, Andy might very well have caught them and instead of descending with Sanchez and Menchov against Schleck, he'd be descending alone against Schleck Sanchez and Menchov, more energy used for quite probably less time gained.
 
May 13, 2009
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Scott SoCal said:
I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.

.

I have my B-day circled on my calendar a year in advance and always end up making the same lame-*** party:p
 
Dec 29, 2009
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Cerberus said:
I'm not sure if Contador was trying to drop Sanchez and Menchov, he might have wanted company for the descent. Imagine if Contador had dropped them, Andy might very well have caught them and instead of descending with Sanchez and Menchov against Schleck, he'd be descending alone against Schleck Sanchez and Menchov, more energy used for quite probably less time gained.

all three were motivated to work together against schleck. tomorrow we'll see who's stronger than who.

erader
 
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Cerberus said:
I'm not sure if Contador was trying to drop Sanchez and Menchov, he might have wanted company for the descent. Imagine if Contador had dropped them, Andy might very well have caught them and instead of descending with Sanchez and Menchov against Schleck, he'd be descending alone against Schleck Sanchez and Menchov, more energy used for quite probably less time gained.

Perhaps. Frankly, I don't think AC is that calculating. More fitting with his racing style would be going au bloc to put as much time as possible in to his major rival.

It appears to be evidence (to me at least) of Bertie being good but not spectacular. Just my observation.
 
Jun 9, 2010
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Scott SoCal said:
Perhaps. Frankly, I don't think AC is that calculating. More fitting with his racing style would be going au bloc to put as much time as possible in to his major rival.

Well I don't think that AC is that stupid to try to go alone in the descent having Samu at his side also with Samu needing to put time to Andy... AC is not more that 2007 young guy... He has learned a lot from all his victories and the situations that he has had during all his GT... OFC he still has some weaknesses but now are not a lot...

About the poll... I voted for X>1.30 minutes... just as a minimun but he has to do his best ride ever and still having a really close finish... but the reality shows us that he need something like 2 or 2.30min to be not that afraid...
 
Dekker_Tifosi said:
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Tree Fiddy

LMFAO. I loved that episode.

I say if he is in yellow going into to the final TT, then he wins. AC will be demoralized if he gets dropped on the Tourmalet (his favorite climb) and it will mean he's physically exhausted.

If Andy's not in yellow, it doesn't really matter he's not going to put that much time into a motivated Contador.
 
Scott SoCal said:
I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.

I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?

I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.

If Andy is up by 1:30 after tomorrow, he wins the TdF.

I've seen a couple of folks repeat that, but it seems they are not considering the situation. AC WANTED them with him on the descent. Just like he wanted Andy with him on the descent of the Madeleine (sp). Sanchez is a phenomenal descender, so who better to set the lines. And Menchov wasn't going to let Sanchez go, so they both were going to be there.

So I don't think it says much about his ability to drop Menchov or Sanchez. At least in my opinion.

Perhaps. Frankly, I don't think AC is that calculating. More fitting with his racing style would be going au bloc to put as much time as possible in to his major rival.

In this instance, in your opinion, was the best tactical move to (A) drop Menchov and Sanchez and have them contribute with a fast closing Andy, or (B) work with Menchov and Sanchez to get maximum time on Andy?
 
Jul 15, 2009
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The Hitch said:
good analysis. Then again, schleck lost 45 seconds in the 8 k prologue. Som can he really limit his losses to that over 50 km.

That's exactly what I was going for: Prologues are representations of burst speeds and short accelerations. That's why you see many Sprinters being up there as well.

Long TT's at the end of a GT are a whole another thing.
Still, 45" to 1 Minute seems about right for me. He IS going to lose time, no question.
 
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Publicus said:
I've seen a couple of folks repeat that, but it seems they are not considering the situation. AC WANTED them with him on the descent. Just like he wanted Andy with him on the descent of the Madeleine (sp). Sanchez is a phenomenal descender, so who better to set the lines. And Menchov wasn't going to let Sanchez go, so they both were going to be there.

So I don't think it says much about his ability to drop Menchov or Sanchez. At least in my opinion.



In this instance, in your opinion, was the best tactical move to (A) drop Menchov and Sanchez and have them contribute with a fast closing Andy, or (B) work with Menchov and Sanchez to get maximum time on Andy?

Well, I think AC would normally take as much time on the ascent as possible.

On the descent he would have been caught and then collaborated with whomever bridged up. But, going up, AC was full gas and that's all he had, IMO
 
Scott SoCal said:
Well, I think AC would normally take as much time on the ascent as possible.

On the descent he would have been caught and then collaborated with whomever bridged up. But, going up, AC was full gas and that's all he had, IMO

so why didn't he do that on the Madeleine? And if he attacked and dropped Menchov and Sanchez, why would they work with him on the descent? Wouldn't they try to put time into him at that point?

And if you were in AC's position (but not AC), what would be the correct tactical decision (assuming you were a GC contender, etc.)?
 
Jul 11, 2010
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I read in an article in the Daily Telegraph that A Schleck rode the last 2.8km of the Port De Bales 35 seconds quicker than AC so if he can get a gap i reckon he could put in serious time to AC before the ITT.
 
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Publicus said:
so why didn't he do that on the Madeleine? And if he attacked and dropped Menchov and Sanchez, why would they work with him on the descent? Wouldn't they try to put time into him at that point?

And if you were in AC's position (but not AC), what would be the correct tactical decision (assuming you were a GC contender, etc.)?

He couldn't get rid of Andy and Andy couldn't get rid of him. At that point both of them had not yet distanced themselves from other likely contenders so there was cooperation. But after that stage it became a two-man race.

Firstly, I would not have attacked AS the way Bertie did... but, my tactic would have been to put as much time as possible on AS. If Menchov and Sanchez catch me on the descent then they will work with me to put as much time into Schleck as possible. At that point the three of them have common interests. The only way Bertie uses Menchov and Sanchez to his benefit on the way up is if there was a strong wind blowing and I don't think there was.