Poll. What gap does Andy Schleck need over Alberto Contador going into the final tt.

[saganftw]

I read in an article in the Daily Telegraph that A Schleck rode the last 2.8km of the Port De Bales 35 seconds quicker than AC so if he can get a gap i reckon he could put in serious time to AC before the ITT.

one thing is pace yourself up the climb,other thing is ride away from contador

btw menchov + sanchez were pulling up front too and i have no doubts they were going slower than andy

 

[Ryaguas]

He couldn't get rid of Andy and Andy couldn't get rid of him. At that point both of them had not yet distanced themselves from other likely contenders so there was cooperation. But after that stage it became a two-man race.

El Pistolero didn't attack Andy in La Col de la Madeleine... Andy was the only one attacking there... so you can't say that AC couldn't get rid off Andy there...

I read in an article in the Daily Telegraph that A Schleck rode the last 2.8km of the Port De Bales 35 seconds quicker than AC so if he can get a gap i reckon he could put in serious time to AC before the ITT.

AC was not going "full gas" in Bales if He had been going full gas there Samu and Menchov wouldn't had been with him in the Top of Bales... but Andy was burning everything in his reserves to try to connect with them... that's why he was quicker than AC in the last Kms of Bales... Andy lost time in the descent...

 

[Lajeretta4Ever]

I already posted this prediction in another thread, but I sadly came to the conclusion that Andy will pull a Chicken 2005 TT and possibly loose this 2nd spot to Menchov.

It may not matter since I think he may get pistol whipped on the Tourmalet.

 

[Anonymous]

El Pistolero didn't attack Andy in La Col de la Madeleine... Andy was the only one attacking there... so you can't say that AC couldn't get rid off Andy there...



AC was not going "full gas" in Bales if He had been going full gas there Samu and Menchov wouldn't had been with him in the Top of Bales... but Andy was burning everything in his reserves to try to connect with them... that's why he was quicker than AC in the last Kms of Bales... Andy lost time in the descent...

If AC could have dropped Andy on the Madeleine he would have.


AC was au bloc up Bales because he knew he was putting time on Andy. If he wasn't full gas then ask your self why? He didn't need Menchov or Sanchez for help up the Bales. Why wouldn't he put as much time on Andy as possibe? In fact, why would he allow Andy to recover some of the lost time? Answer? AC was going flat out. That's all he had.

 

[Anonymous]

I already posted this prediction in another thread, but I sadly came to the conclusion that Andy will pull a Chicken 2005 TT and possibly loose this 2nd spot to Menchov.

It may not matter since I think he may get pistol whipped on the Tourmalet.

I have a strange feeling you are going to be surprised. I don't think AC is as good this year compared to last.

 

[Bennyl]

Andy has left his run to late. He can point to the loss of his brother or even chaingate but the fact is he needed to have at least attempted to attack AC more than he has to date, and now we are at the last climbing day, he is down on the GC and it is all too late.

 

[Ryaguas]

If AC could have dropped Andy on the Madeleine he would have.

AC was au bloc up Bales because he knew he was putting time on Andy. If he wasn't full gas then ask your self why? He didn't need Menchov or Sanchez for help up the Bales. Why wouldn't he put as much time on Andy as possibe? In fact, why would he allow Andy to recover some of the lost time? Answer? AC was going flat out. That's all he had.

AC was in defense mode in La Madeleine... after what happened in Morzine - Avoriaz he knew that he has to ride defensively... He knows that he only has to wait for Andy's attacks to counter-attack really hard... that is what is going to happen in Le Tourmalet BTW...

He wasn't full gas cuz He need Samu for the descent also he looked back a lot of times in the final Km, why? I don't know but one thing is sure is that he wasn't going full gas in the last 2km... if you had the opportunity to go with the better descender in the whole peloton, would you let pass that opportunity? would be stupid if you do...

 

[Big GMaC]

I have my B-day circled on my calendar a year in advance and always end up making the same lame-*** party

Tourmalet is on my Birthday

 

[Anonymous]

AC was in defense mode in La Madeleine... after what happened in Morzine - Avoriaz he knew that he has to ride defensively... He knows that he only has to wait for Andy's attacks to counter-attack really hard... that is what is going to happen in Le Tourmalet BTW...

He wasn't full gas cuz He need Samu for the descent also he looked back a lot of times in the final Km, why? I don't know but one thing is sure is that he wasn't going full gas in the last 2km... if you had the opportunity to go with the better descender in the whole peloton, would you let pass that opportunity? would be stupid if you do...

We will disagree then.

Sanchez catches AC at some point so there is no reason to ride with him on the way up. AC is looking around because his DS is telling him AS is coming back to the group. The better descender is also a potential rival so you don't wait for him on the way up.

I think AC was doing all he could do. We will find out tomorrow if I am correct.... Or not.

 

[mowie133]

Tourmalet is on my Birthday

as a reward you have to climb it

 

[Hotbrakes]

Baby Schleck will need only 45 seconds going into the TT. If he goes full gas from the bottom of the Toumalet I don't think AC will hang on. Schleck will susprise everyone with his TT performance and win the Tour by 7 seconds. Before anyone calls me Lance, no I don't have a crystal ball.

 

[hfer07]

Andy needs 3 + minutes to ride in paris with the yellow. any number lower than that just won't make the cut. This is a flat TT not suitable for neither ASchleck nor Contador, but we already know who's the better TT rider by far between those two.

 

[luckyboy]

Voted 2:30 by accident instead of 2 minutes.

 

[unsheath]

If AC could have dropped Andy on the Madeleine he would have.


AC was au bloc up Bales because he knew he was putting time on Andy. If he wasn't full gas then ask your self why? He didn't need Menchov or Sanchez for help up the Bales. Why wouldn't he put as much time on Andy as possibe? In fact, why would he allow Andy to recover some of the lost time? Answer? AC was going flat out. That's all he had.

Man, you need a lesson in cycling tactics. Watch the last 3km again. This time without the AS goggles.

 

[Anonymous]

Man, you need a lesson in cycling tactics. Watch the last 3km again. This time without the AS goggles.

Brilliant observation.

Where am I wrong? Be specific. School me.

 

[saganftw]

what gap does schleck need over menchov to stay 2nd?

 

[skidmark]

I think Scott's point is a pretty valid consideration - Contador is not going as well as last year. The prologue was pretty good, but not godlike. But think of his Dauphine TT - definitely didn't kill the competition, and I don't think he was dogging it in the slightest. I say if Andy has a minute he's got it. But of course we'll see on the Tourmalet.

As for Menchov - 1:45. That's my wild guess. This is fun.

 

[Hillavoider]

i think andy schlep's TT will be as good the chickens 2005 TT with a crash, 2 bike changes, 2 wheel changes and then a stack into a ditch just to finish it off. so i feel he will need about 9 minutes.

 

[MKirilenko]

I voted for >2min, closer to 2.30 than to 2. Lot depends on AC performace, if he does Annecy here, then he should be safe with that 2-2.30. But what if he goes like in Dauphine and AS as Sastre in 2008? Contador definetely need to stay with AS today without calculating, then he's 100% safe. If he isnt able to, I will probably be a little dissapointed

 

[usedtobefast]

based on the past i say in the 2 or 3 minute range would be where i would want
to be against Alberto,before the TT. it is going to be very hard for Andy to win. he can do it. things just have to go his way. otherwise AC is the winner. either way it goes, i hope it goes well for all the players.

 

[unsheath]

Brilliant observation.

Where am I wrong? Be specific. School me.

Go see Ryaguas's last post. He summed up the situation perfectly.

 

[Anonymous]

Go see Ryaguas's last post. He summed up the situation perfectly.

So AC wasted an opportunity to put Andy under even more pressure by easing up in the last 2kms. AC allows Andy to close the gap significantly by the summit. All in order to descend with a guy who would have bridged up after 4 or 5kms on the descent anyways?

Alrighty then.

 

[Angliru]

I disagree. I'm thinking Schleck has had this stage (Tourmalet) circled on his calendar since the parcours was announced.

I think he's going to throw everything at Bertie on the Tourmalet. Additionally, I don't think AC is that good this year. Even the stage where he attacked AS during 'Chaingate' he could not drop Menchov or Sanchez. Who, before the Tour started, would have bet on that?

I will not be surprised to see Bertie in difficulty tomorrow.

If Andy is up by 1:30 after tomorrow, he wins the TdF.

Why would he have wanted to drop Sanchez and/or Menchov when they could all work together on the descent to further their gap on those in pursuit?

 

[Anonymous]

Why would he have wanted to drop Sanchez and/or Menchov when they could all work together on the descent to further their gap on those in pursuit?

If I'm AC I'm looking to put as much time on Andy by the summit as possible. If I'm AC I know that I descend at least as well as Andy and I also know there is at least two guys that will not want me getting away from them and will chase flat out on the descent to catch me. Andy was within 15 seconds or so at the summit (going from memory).

I don't get the tactic that allows Andy to take back much of the time that AC's attack had established only to sit up and wait for two guys that will catch him on the descent anyways. Unless that was all he had, which is what I think was going on.

I'm guessing Andy felt much better by the time he reached the summit being down by only 15 seconds as opposed to 45 seconds or 1 minute. How much more pressure would Andy have been under?

AC rode defensively even on the attack. Why?

 

[Angliru]

I'm curious as to where this continued implication of Contador not being very smart or tactically inept originates with Andy Schleck being the superior tactical rider. Was it not Andy who drifted back to the team car for fuel and hydration in the midst of the penultimate climb of a stage this year while he had a C.A. Sorenson still in the pack? Didn't Contador win the Giro with less preparation than his competition which I would think involve a certain level of smarts? Didn't he come close to winning Fleche Wallone in his first serious stab at it?

I think there is this misbegotten belief that Contador gets by on talent alone as if he's this village idiot who happens to be some type of cycling savant. For me, it gets to be annoying but I guess people will post whatever they want regardless of how ridiculous it is.