Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Bavarianrider]

Thanks LeBreton.

Sometimes I forget these are shorter efforts. Even Merckx did 6.4 watts/kg for the full hour I think.

Even Verbier was higher.

For LA I had somewhere around 6.5-6.6 watts/hr for the whole TT. That would call for doping for that length of time at the third week of the Tour.

Ulle did 7Watt/Kilo for almost 40 minutes on the Madeleine in 1998

 

[Le breton]

Ulle did 7Watt/Kilo for almost 40 minutes on the Madeleine in 1998

Do you have the right mountain pass?

According to Portoleau and Vayer the best performances by Ullrich up to 2001 were on the Croix de Chaubouret ~6.7 watts/kg during 29:02 and in Arcalis (22:55), also 6.7 W/kg. That was in 1997.
On the Croix de Chabouret his time bested Pantani's by 1:17!

In 1998, on the Madeleine he did 6.25 W/kg during 52:50.

 

[Cloxxki]

Only a few kg more for Lance makes it all even worse. And we know he's not really lost so much after his illness.

 

[Le breton]

.......
Even Merckx did 6.4 watts/kg for the full hour I think.
......

6.2 watts/kg on a stationary bike
see here
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=7900

 

[Le breton]

6.2 watts/kg on a stationary bike
see here
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=7900

http://de.groups.yahoo.com/group/Rad-Leistungsdiagnostik/message/3791
That guys says Merckx weighed 78 kg. I don't know if I believe it

 

[rata de sentina]

In my opinion this thread should be a sticky. Much more interesting than that stoopid legal thread.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Do you have the right mountain pass?

According to Portoleau and Vayer the best performances by Ullrich up to 2001 were on the Croix de Chaubouret ~6.7 watts/kg during 29:02 and in Arcalis (22:55), also 6.7 W/kg. That was in 1997.
On the Croix de Chabouret his time bested Pantani's by 1:17!

In 1998, on the Madeleine he did 6.25 W/kg during 52:50.

According to Dr. Stefano di Stano Ullrich did 495 Watt over 38 minutes on the madeleine in 1998.
Áccording to cyclismag he did 6.9 Watt/Kilo in Arcalis
According to cyclismag on the Chabouret hed did ca 7 Watt/Kilo on the Chabouret for half an hour.

 

[halamala]

According to Dr. Stefano di Stano Ullrich did 495 Watt over 38 minutes on the madeleine in 1998.

According to my calculation.

Tour de France 1998, Stage 16, Final climb Col de la Madeleine (last 14.4 Km)

Jan Ullrich

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 1095 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 14.4 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 2282 = 38 min 2 sec = 38:02
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 72 kg
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 7.6 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 22.7 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 80.0 kg

Power : 463.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.4 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

 

[Bavarianrider]

According to my calculation.

Tour de France 1998, Stage 16, Final climb Col de la Madeleine (last 14.4 Km)

Jan Ullrich

Elevation / Höhenmeter [m] : 1095 m
Distance / Streckenlänge [Km] : 14.4 Km
Time in seconds / Fahrzeit in Sekunden [sec] : 2282 = 38 min 2 sec = 38:02
Weight rider / Gewicht Fahrer [kg] : 72 kg
Weight bicycle, clothes etc. / Gewicht Fahrrad [kg] : 8 kg

Grade / mittlere Seigung : 7.6 %
Average speed / mittlere Geschwindigkeit : 22.7 Km/h
Total weight / Gesamtgewicht : 80.0 kg

Power : 463.1 Watt
Power / kg : 6.4 Watt / kg

Source: [ http://www.rst.mp-all.de/bergauf.htm ]

Ah thanks for the numbers! Where did you get those exact numbers?
2 Peak Power Calculator has 6,5 Watt/Kilo with those numbers.

Seems like those Dr. always exegerate a bit. Ferraris numbers are usually too high too.

 

[Le breton]

..........Ullrich ...........
Áccording to cyclismag he did 6.9 Watt/Kilo in Arcalis
According to cyclismag on the Chabouret hed did ca 7 Watt/Kilo on the Chabouret for half an hour.

I was puzzled by your numbers since they come from the same source as mine but published in 2 distinct places. The numbers I gave were from 2002 in the book "Pouvez-vous gagner le Tour" by frédéric Portoleau & Antoine Vayer, pg 24 where they compute a power of 495 watts for a 74 kg Ullrich at Chaubouret and 494 watts at Arcalis.

Then a google search led me to article No 5543 of cyclismag, published with the help of Frédéric Portoleau in which the powers calculated have become respectively 484 and 475 watts, presumably this time for a standard 70 kg cyclist, which corresponds to 6.9 and 6.8 watts/kg. I will go back and reread that article to see if I missed something.

1997 : la seule victoire de Jan Ullrich

Jan Ullrich, 23 ans, marque les esprits dans les Pyrénées, il l'emporte seul à Arcalis (475 watts) puis lors du contre la montre de Saint Etienne en laissant le second de l'étape Virenque à plus de 3 minutes. Avec 484 watts à la Croix de Chaubouret, il établit un record de puissance pour une étape de type contre la montre en côte. En fin de Tour de France dans les Alpes, il contrôle à distance les assauts de Pantani à l'Alpe d'Huez puis à Joux Plane et résiste à l'assaut de l'équipe Festina sur la route de Courchevel.
Voir le graphique

 

[Pantani_lives]

Highest VAM-values what I have calculated (10 Km or longer climbs)

1. 1839 m/h Bjarne Riis, Hautacam, Tour 1996
2. 1826 m/h Jan Ullrich, Arcalis, Tour 1997
3. 1804 m/h Marco Pantani, Mont Ventoux, Tour 1994
4. 1798 m/h Luc Leblanc, Hautacam, Tour 1994
5. 1797 m/h Miguel Indurain, Hautacam, Tour 1994
6. 1797 m/h Richard Virenque, Hautacam, Tour 1996
7. 1797 m/h Laurent Dufaux, Hautacam, Tour 1996
8. 1795 m/h Alexander Vinokourov, Col de Peyresourde, Tour 2003
9. 1795 m/h Iban Mayo, Col de Peyresourde, Tour 2003
10. 1792 m/h Marco Pantani, Alpe d'Huez, Tour 1995

It's surprising that Armstrong isn't even in the top ten. The top 7 was in 1994-1997, before the hematocrit test.

 

[Bavarianrider]

8. 1795 m/h Alexander Vinokourov, Col de Peyresourde, Tour 2003
9. 1795 m/h Iban Mayo, Col de Peyresourde, Tour 2003

Those two are as fishy as it gets

 

[Le breton]

I was puzzled by your numbers since they come from the same source as mine but published in 2 distinct places. The numbers I gave were from 2002 in the book "Pouvez-vous gagner le Tour" by frédéric Portoleau & Antoine Vayer, pg 24 where they compute a power of 495 watts for a 74 kg Ullrich at Chaubouret and 494 watts at Arcalis.

Then a google search led me to article No 5543 of cyclismag, published with the help of Frédéric Portoleau in which the powers calculated have become respectively 484 and 475 watts, presumably this time for a standard 70 kg cyclist, which corresponds to 6.9 and 6.8 watts/kg. I will go back and reread that article to see if I missed something.

1997 : la seule victoire de Jan Ullrich

Jan Ullrich, 23 ans, marque les esprits dans les Pyrénées, il l'emporte seul à Arcalis (475 watts) puis lors du contre la montre de Saint Etienne en laissant le second de l'étape Virenque à plus de 3 minutes. Avec 484 watts à la Croix de Chaubouret, il établit un record de puissance pour une étape de type contre la montre en côte. En fin de Tour de France dans les Alpes, il contrôle à distance les assauts de Pantani à l'Alpe d'Huez puis à Joux Plane et résiste à l'assaut de l'équipe Festina sur la route de Courchevel.
Voir le graphique

The numbers I gave were from 2002 in the book "Pouvez-vous gagner le Tour" by frédéric Portoleau & Antoine Vayer, pg 24 where they compute a power of 495 watts for a 74 kg Ullrich at Chaubouret and 494 watts at Arcalis.

I found what is probably the main reason for the apparent discrepancy page 47 of that book.

One calculation, yielding 494 watts is made for a standard 70 kg cyclist (total weight 78kg), not the actual Jan Ullrich97, giving 7.06 watts/kg

the other one is made for the actual Jan Ullrich97, at 73 kg + 9 kg equipment, but taking into account a lower CdA because he was using a triathlon and yielding 495 watts handlebar, giving 6.78 watts/kg.

 

[rata de sentina]

I'm bumping this for sniper and because in the Clinic a science based thread should rule and not that stoopid law thread.

 

[roundabout]

On that note, can you explain based on science why Contador is clean this time around? In the other thread of course.

 

[Ferminal]

I'm bumping this for sniper and because in the Clinic a science based thread should rule and not that stoopid law thread.

Would you like to present some numbers pre-EPO era?

 

[rata de sentina]

On that note, can you explain based on science why Contador is clean this time around? In the other thread of course.

Can you explain based on science why Contador is dirty this time around? If you want a reply in another thread you should post in the other thread and cite or refer to this thread. Otherwise you're polluting this thread (jewel of the ClinicTM)

 

[veganrob]

Would you like to present some numbers pre-EPO era?

Would that really be relative as so many things have changed in the last 20 years? Training, diet, racing calendar etc.
All athletes are bigger, stronger, faster. Yes, doping has something to do with that but it is not the only thing.

 

[python]

Would you like to present some numbers pre-EPO era?

actually, this is a great question, ferminal !

fearing that the thread will be derailed by the usual, i'm going to attempt to answer it by a quote (hiliting mine):

My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.

a note: lemond racing weight was 67 kg. so, on extended climbs he was producing 5.7 to 5.8 watt per kilo.

 

[Le breton]

...........
a note: lemond racing weight was 67 kg. so, on extended climbs he was producing 5.7 to 5.8 watt per kilo.

Originally Posted by greg lemond
My wattage, relative to VO2 Max...a VO2 Max of 92 or 93 in a fully recovered way...I think I was capable of producing 450 to 460 watts. The truth is, even at the Tour de France, my Tour de France climb times up l'Alpe d'Huez yielded a wattage of around 380 and 390. That was the historic norm for Hinault and myself. You've got times going back many, many years. But what was learned recently, in the last 5 years, was that when you start the Tour de France, you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent. So that's why I was never producing the same wattage. And then there a lot of other factors that help performance if you've recovered. My last time trial in '89, I averaged about 420, 430 watts, which would match or be slightly down from what my real VO2 Max was.

Elsewhere in that bikeracinginfo interview G.L. answers
In the 80s when I was racing we did VO2 Max testing, but it was to see the physical fitness. My first VO2 Max test was up in Squaw Valley on a treadmill and I had a 79 VO2 Max non-specific sport. But once I actually really started doing VO2 Max testing on a consistent basis in '89... now you know it depends upon the level of fitness and training...I was on average about 6.2 to 6.4 liters of Oxygen, which translated to my racing weight would be 92, 93, 94 VO2 Max.

For a 67 kg athlete, a VO2 max of 6.2-6.4 liters corresponds to 6.3 liters /67 kg = 94 ml O2/kg (per min. implied). which also translates to roughly 6.3 times 78-80 watts ~490 watts. Now 450-460 watts represents 92 % of 490 watts.

Therefore we can assume that when G.L. talks about 450-460 watts he is talking about a TT or a climb of duration 30-60 minutes. Now 455/67 = 6.8 watts/kg.

Which means that G.L. estimates that in a fully rested state he would have been able to climb AdH in TT conditions ROUGHLY in 38 minutes.( Taking into account a slight 1-2% overall altitude effect bringing down 6.8 watts/kg to 6.7 watts/kg, add less than 1 min if you want to take 1 kg heavier bike weight into account).

On this question of fatigue
you start with a normal hematocrit of, say, 45 percent. By the time you finish, it's probably down 10 or 15 percent. Which means my VO2 Max dropped 10 or 15 percent.

I would tend to think that the drop in VO2 max is not as marked as the drop in hematocrit, maybe half, three quarters?

I would appreciate comments to verify that I didn't misrepresent what was said by LeMond in the interview.

Anyway the figures he gives seem pretty consistent, not bad if he was talking without notes.

 

[I Watch Cycling In July]

'...'Therefore we can assume that when G.L. talks about 450-460 watts he is talking about a TT or a climb of duration 30-60 minutes. Now 455/67 = 6.8 watts/kg.

Fascinating. Any climbs done by GL at a speed that would support that power output IRL? If so, that's gotta challenge a few assumption around here.

*grabs popcorn*

 

[Merckx index]

I would tend to think that the drop in VO2 max is not as marked as the drop in hematocrit, maybe half, three quarters?

This was discussed in the thread: What percentage gain does blood doping/epo actually give? As I summarized in post #33:

I think the best conclusion at this point is that as Hb is raised, bound oxygen is raised at the same rate, and is delivered to the tissues. However, what happens next, which is usually referred to as "extraction", may depend on several other factors, and these will ultimately determine power. The bottom line is that different individuals will exhibit different increases in O2 max in response to a given increase in Hb.

That last sentence was based on studies I discussed, which found enormous variation in VO2 values when human subjects were given blood transfusions. Often, in fact, V02 increased more than HT did. This provides interesting support for the notion that there are high and low responders, though I would not consider that issue settled, as we would need data showing that a given individual always responds to an increase in HT in the same manner.

I’m interested, though, in Lemond’s claim that he could put out values of about 6.8 watts/kg when fresh, but not necessarily in a GT, because of the decline in HT. For a long time, and even now, we have seen estimates of some riders approaching or achieving this level in climbing stages. We might look at it as a limit of what is possible without enhancement. But, this does not mean there is no doping. In fact, it seems consistent to me with doping in the passport era. The passport has very likely not eliminated blood doping, but may have reduced it, i.e., limited the elevation in HT riders can get away with. Riders can probably pass it, and other tests, if they simply dope enough to maintain their HT more or less constant during a GT, or allow a smaller than normal decrease. This could then result, for the very best riders, in power numbers in the upper 6 watts.

 

[rata de sentina]

The passport has very likely not eliminated blood doping, but may have reduced it, i.e., limited the elevation in HT riders can get away with. Riders can probably pass it, and other tests, if they simply dope enough to maintain their HT more or less constant during a GT, or allow a smaller than normal decrease. This could then result, for the very best riders, in power numbers in the upper 6 watts.

Well Hct is not the only parameter that the blood passport follows and the people monitoring the blood passport are not idiots so they know that a decline is expected (even Ferrari has a study published on this). Anybody who maintains their Hct through a grand tour by doping is going to be suspicious and will probably be targeted. Doping is a lot more difficult to manage requiring more expertise and more risk for less gain.

 

[Merckx index]

Well Hct is not the only parameter that the blood passport follows and the people monitoring the blood passport are not idiots so they know that a decline is expected (even Ferrari has a study published on this). Anybody who maintains their Hct through a grand tour by doping is going to be suspicious and will probably be targeted. Doping is a lot more difficult to manage requiring more expertise and more risk for less gain.

I probably should have said Hb instead of HT. The point being, riders can use EPO and/or transfusion to raise their red cell count without necessarily raising (or raising as much) their HT. And also keeping reticulocyte number fairly stable. Ashenden's recent work, which I mentioned in the thread on him, comes to the conclusion that as long as the passport lacks a Hb measure, it's not that difficult to beat it with transfusions.

Your last sentence is something a lot of people are saying nowadays, but I'm not yet convinced it isn't just wishful thinking.

 

[D-Queued]

Well Hct is not the only parameter that the blood passport follows and the people monitoring the blood passport are not idiots so they know that a decline is expected (even Ferrari has a study published on this). Anybody who maintains their Hct through a grand tour by doping is going to be suspicious and will probably be targeted. Doping is a lot more difficult to manage requiring more expertise and more risk for less gain.

Agree... but, I have it on very good and credible authority that a particular cyclist was able to increase his power output throughout a Tour while his competitor's dropped. Of course, this was pre-Passport.

I probably should have said Hb instead of HT. The point being, riders can use EPO and/or transfusion to raise their red cell count without necessarily raising (or raising as much) their HT. And also keeping reticulocyte number fairly stable. Ashenden's recent work, which I mentioned in the thread on him, comes to the conclusion that as long as the passport lacks a Hb measure, it's not that difficult to beat it with transfusions.

Your last sentence is something a lot of people are saying nowadays, but I'm not yet convinced it isn't just wishful thinking.

Interesting insights.

Dave.