Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Ferminal]

That would be about 15% slower than 2012. From what we could see all the damage was done on Gavia and the descent. Do you have any historical insights into high altitude days like this one?

 

[jens_attacks]

I saw that Cataldo reaches the bottom of the climb at a time like 64:40-50 into the programme
and the summit
at 135:55.
i.e. something like 1:11:00 for Stelvio.
It's possible to refine that estimate, in particular if one knows well Bormio.
It is also possible to infer the starting time by subtracting from Quintana's finishing time (about 4:42) the time announced on the replay video.

i updated now with the time of stelvio. chalapud only 3 minutes,20 sec slower than purito in 2012.

http://www.climbing-records.com/2014/05/quintana-destroys-competition-on-slopes.html

unfortunately, no time for gavia, the first 10 km were not filmed. keeping in mind, the atrocious weather,so much climbing in only 140 kms, i think they went really fast. around 30 kmph average speed of the stage is huge. with the usual stops at the top admiring the views, some breaks for eating and drinking a hot tea, that's pretty much the speed i would do. with my car.

 

[Merckx index]

Estimating how much time it would take Quintana to get to the beginning of the climbing portion of the mountain TT, I calculate a VAM of 1590 on that portion, and 5.7 watts/kg.

 

[Red Rick]

Monte Grappa
2014:19,3 km@8,0%---55:03---average speed 21.04 km/h(Nairo Quintana)
---55:04---average speed 21.03 km/h(Fabio Aru)

I imagine their VAM is higher than 1590

http://www.climbing-records.com/2014/05/monte-grappa-witness-of-new-ultra.html

 

[Bavarianrider]

According to the official profile it's 1521 altitude meters for the 19,3km climb, that would be 7,88% average excactly.
Using this we get 6,1 Watt/Kilo if we use standardized 70kg riders and 8kg equipment (bike+ clothes, shoes, bottle)
Vam is 1658 m/h

Historic comparisons.

2004 Ventoux TT
Mayo 1740 m/h 21,6km 7,5%

2004 Alpe d' Huez 13,8km 8% ( so a lot shorter)

Armstrong: 1790 m/H
Ullrich 1754 m/h

So while Quintana/Aru numbers don't look stratospheric at first. Considering the length of the climb one must realize that their efforts are still quiet remarkable.

 

[the sceptic]

Monte Grappa
2014:19,3 km@8,0%---55:03---average speed 21.04 km/h(Nairo Quintana)
---55:04---average speed 21.03 km/h(Fabio Aru)

I imagine their VAM is higher than 1590

http://www.climbing-records.com/2014/05/monte-grappa-witness-of-new-ultra.html

I love Jens' enthusiasm. The inclusion of the Froome-Porte group is a nice touch as well.

 

[Netserk]

vetooo's numbers and rider weight of 53kg gives Quintana 6.33 W/kg [CPL]

 

[Merckx index]

According to the CN profile, it’s 1501 meters for the 19.3 km. climb (1675 - 174). I didn’t know Quintana’s time for the climb and just estimated it from what I guessed he would do the more or less flat first section in. If it was 55:03, then his VAM is 1636, and watts/kg is 5.88.

6.3 watts/kg for a ride of that length would almost certainly indicate doping.

Edit: So the finish is higher than 1675? If it's 1712, then the climb should be 1538 m? For a VAM of 1677 and 6.03 watts/kg.

 

[Netserk]

According to the CN profile, it’s 1501 meters for the 19.3 km. climb (1675 - 174). I didn’t know Quintana’s time for the climb and just estimated it from what I guessed he would do the more or less flat first section in. If it was 55:03, then his VAM is 1636, and watts/kg is 5.88.

It ends at 1712 not 1675.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

http://www.strava.com/activities/147389372

Keldermans data
431w average on Grappa..

 

[roundabout]

he should trade in his power meter asap

 

[zigmeister]

^strava math

 

[thehog]

^strava math

I did 220km p/hr once, uphill!

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

http://www.strava.com/activities/147389372

Keldermans data
431w average on Grappa..

What's his weight? Dutch Wiki says it's 65kg, but that can't be right. It would mean he did 6,63 watt/kg. So either everyone else was pulling a Lance or he must be heavier. Especially since the Quintana was calculated in between 5,7 and 6,33 w/kg

 

[GuyIncognito]

What's his weight? Dutch Wiki says it's 65kg, but that can't be right. It would mean he did 6,63 watt/kg. So either everyone else was pulling a Lance or he must be heavier. Especially since the Quintana was calculated in between 5,7 and 6,33 w/kg

Belkin site says 65kg

vetooo's numbers and rider weight of 53kg gives Quintana 6.33 W/kg [CPL]

Movistar website states Quintana at 59kg, not 53

53 is insane, it would make him as light as Elissonde!

 

[GuyIncognito]

vetooo's numbers and rider weight of 53kg gives Quintana 6.33 W/kg [CPL]

Movistar website states Quintana at 59kg, not 53

53 is insane, it would make him as light as Elissonde!

 

[luckyboy]

Aru power file from Montecampione
http://www.srm.de/news/road-cycling/giro-ditalia-stage-15/

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

While not strictly power estimates, I thought the following chart might be of interest comparing the ride times in the Giro Stage 19 MTT and the Stage 12 ITT for the top 25 on GC (top 25 after St 19).

Accompanying notes here.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

While not strictly power estimates, I thought the following chart might be of interest comparing the ride times in the Giro Stage 19 MTT and the Stage 12 ITT for the top 25 on GC (top 25 after St 19).

Accompanying notes here.

Cool, but what does it show us? Not sure what new to learn from it

 

[Dear Wiggo]

also assumes similar effort for both rides, yes?

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

Cool, but what does it show us? Not sure what new to learn from it

Perhaps read the accompanying notes link I provided.

For those well acquainted with how the physics of cycling based on terrain and type of stages impacts on results, then it will not be a revelation, but for many this is not so obvious.

e.g. I listed a summary of the critical stages for GC riders of the TdF for the years 2011-2014, and how the nature of the type of rider to dominate can differ as a result.

Also, it highlights that if Quintana can do something more about his aerodynamics, he can become a dominant GC rider, and Rolland also has an opportunity for better GC performances as well if he did some aero improvement work.

also assumes similar effort for both rides, yes?

Yes, as I said in the accompanying notes, I chose to show the top 25 (and top 10 in red) as they were more likely (but not guaranteed) to have given each TT their best effort, but of course that's not always going to be the case. e.g. Rogers held back on the MTT a little. For the top 10 it's far more likely to be representative of their full effort.

 

[Bumeington]

Aru power file from Montecampione
http://www.srm.de/news/road-cycling/giro-ditalia-stage-15/

So Aru's coach is Gazzetta said 6W/kg for montecampione at 61.5kg, Aru said he was more like 60kg. This says 66kg with 325W for 46 minutes, so 4.9W/kg?!?!?!? Maybe I should turn pro

 

[Ferminal]

It's missing the last 7 minutes of effort i.e. most of his attack (it drops out or what?). Still not sure it would bring the average up to 350-60.

 

[Le breton]

So Aru's coach is Gazzetta said 6W/kg for montecampione at 61.5kg, Aru said he was more like 60kg. This says 66kg with 325W for 46 minutes, so 4.9W/kg?!?!?!? Maybe I should turn pro

I don't know what you are looking at, but on that graph I see that during the part named 2, starting like 4:40 from the start of the graph, we have a power of approximately 341 watts, measured against the green scale on the left, for a duration of about 46:18 (measured on my screen, horizontal scale).

For a 60 kg racer that means 5.68 watts/kg.
------
Addition 1
I guess that 325 watts must be right, it's just that by estimating the ave. by eye I underestimate the effect of the trough at the point where the speed shoots up near 30 km/h.

anyway, the fact that there were large variations in the power output means that the actual power was far below what Aru could have sustained over the same 46 min duration had the power ouput been about constant.
------
Addition 2
Come to think of it, the whole graph looks strange, those large variations in power output and the fact that interferences are mentioned, makes me wonder if there were not interference problems throughout the whole stage.
-------
Addition 3
I am coming back to this stage 15 and I notice that there is a second graph for Montecampione alone (39:51 of it) which to me looks pretty much at odds with the part of the graph for the whole stage which is supposed to show that same Montecampione ascent.
So that maybe the whole thing should be trashed?

 

[Almeisan]

Yes, as I said in the accompanying notes, I chose to show the top 25 (and top 10 in red) as they were more likely (but not guaranteed) to have given each TT their best effort, but of course that's not always going to be the case. e.g. Rogers held back on the MTT a little. For the top 10 it's far more likely to be representative of their full effort.

Maybe having a small heart and having smaller lungs but having to cut roughly through the same volume of air gives lower performance in ITT while higher on the MTT?

And heavy muscular people just push less watts/kg but more watts overall. Height and build have way less effect on air drag than on weight.

Are you suggestion all small statue riders are poor at ITT area positioning? Haha...