Escarabajo

I just finished doing the calculations for these two riders on the climb to Verbier.

Input information:

Wiggins Weight: 76 Kg
Sandy Casar: 63 Kg

Drafting: 30% for Contador, 50% for Wiggins (+/-)
Mechanical Efficiency of Bike: 98%

Length: 8.7 km

Wiggins Speed: 14.9 mph
Casar Speed: 13.89 mph

Power Outputs:
Contador: 435 W (7.14 W/kg) 415 W (6.8 W/kg) - tailwind added
Wiggins 477 W (6.28 W/kg) - 446 W (6.2 W/kg) - Tailwind added
Casar: 379 W (6.00 W/kg)

Power Outputs from the following links are as follows:
http://www.mne.psu.edu/lamancusa/ProdDiss/Bicycle/bikecalc1.htm
http://swiss2.whosting.ch/mdetting/sports/cycling.html
Wiggins: 487 W, 484 W
Casar: 384 W, 381 W

Before you start protesting my numbers I have to say the following comments:

- I know, this is not the same as a power meter, but this is the equation used in physics for aerodynamics and other calculations. It will give you errors of course, but at least it should give you a comparative idea on how the riders are performing. And also helps to see what power ranges to expect.
- Don't be so surprised by the Wiggins numbers because the effort was done in slightly less than 22 minutes so it is easier to maintain this effort than over an hour of climbing distance. Besides the weight makes a big difference.
- I tried to be a little conservative with the assumptions. The reason for this is if I have to make any changes because of recommendations from other forists then it will be up and not down, most likely.
- I submitted the time of Sandy Casar just as reference.

sometriguy

Wow, I don't need to go much past 15.7 mph.... that is fast!

The numbers are quite intersting, so Bradley's power to weight was 14% lower than contador's.

I am wondering if the data is giving too much credence to draft... I just don't see how a rider who weighs 25 percent more and comes in about 5 percent slower did 14 percent less work.....

Either way, judging by what people have said on this forum, I guess it could be argued that the only one that seems obviously doped by those power to weight numbers is contador

For the record, I think they are all dirty

saxe_coburg_gotha

altitude gain per hour is still the main indicator 2000 metres plus regardless of gradient means you could win. 1800 equals dom duties

Escarabajo

sometriguy said:
Wow, I don't need to go much past 15.7 mph.... that is fast!

The numbers are quite intersting, so Bradley's power to weight was 14% lower than contador's.

I am wondering if the data is giving too much credence to draft... I just don't see how a rider who weighs 25 percent more and comes in about 5 percent slower did 14 percent less work.....

Either way, judging by what people have said on this forum, I guess it could be argued that the only one that seems obviously doped by those power to weight numbers is contador

For the record, I think they are all dirty
The weight difference is what makes the numbers look funny. Especially when we have someone as big as Wiggins.

As for your second comment, some other posters in this Forum were claiming that over 6 W/kg, it becomes suspicious. Wiggins is over that number so I don't know what to make of that. On the other hand the effort was only completed under 22 minutes. So maybe it is possible. I'll let you be the judge of it.

Steeplechase

IMO...For a 20-22 minute climb, fully fresh, those numbers for Wiggins are achieveable especially if his weight really is down to 71kg as he reports. 71kg *6.2watts/kg = 440 watts 22 minute power at crank (SRM power) so 425-430 watts PT power. That is well within his FTP of 410 watts estimate from the prologue. Achieving this type of power output on stage 14...that's seriously impressive but I don't have cause for concern with Wiggins yet. Ventoux will tell a lot.

the truth.

climb rate

in the long history of the Tour de France, no cyclist has ever climbed a mountain as fast as Alberto Contador rode up to Verbier today.

His climbing rate was 1900 m/hour, breaking theold record held by Bjarne Riis of 1843 m/hour. You may decide for yourself if this is due to tactics/race situation, doping, following wind or physiological ability! Regardless, it's incredible climbing.

Sophistic

Wiggins is not at 76kg anymore

A moron

Steeplechase said:
that's seriously impressive but I don't have cause for concern with Wiggins yet. Ventoux will tell a lot.

It's ridiculous to believe he'd be riding clean!
His finished the Giro as 123rd and 134th, and the Tour as 124th in the recent years... And now he goes for the podium? Yeeeeah right!
I'm sure it's all due to his "massive" weight loss of maybe 0.5kg *lol*

Oh and it's even worse, since he's listed being 77kg on the Garmin page

Alpe d'Huez

Good work Escarabajo.

That was indeed some fast, fast riding. One might also factor in the talk that they haven't actually raced in almost two weeks since the prologue, and the last 13 stages have pretty much been like training rides.

Wiggins weight is a point of interest, because 5kg would be a big difference. He is looking more like The Chicken these days.

Anyone remember Riis climb up Hautecam? At one point he just took a pull and rode everyone off his wheel without realizing it, then cruised in to victory. Amazing that Contador rode faster than this. I remember when Simoni's rate up Zoncolon was something like 1690m/h and that raised a few eyebrows. Even Lance rode 1,764m/h today.

Agree with Ross. We may not see monster attacks in the next two stages. The onus is on the Schlecks, Sastre and Evans to do so, and they may mostly be looking at getting a shot at the podium. We are likely to go back to conservative riding leading into the ITT in Annecy. The only attacks from Contador may be in the final km of the final climb. He has no reason to put out more effort than that which might get him a handful of seconds.

Tim Costello

If you think Wiggins is doping then that blows a massive hole in the Garmin and British Cycling no doping approach. For once, and not just because he's British I'm prepared to believe in a rider transforming himself. Bradley is a pursuiter which is the most flexible type of rider, he's lost significant amounts of weight and this is the first year he has ever concentrated on the road. I bet he will never win the pursuit title again.

PACONi

Hayden Roulston said:
It's ridiculous to believe he'd be riding clean!
His finished the Giro as 123rd and 134th, and the Tour as 124th in the recent years... And now he goes for the podium? Yeeeeah right!
I'm sure it's all due to his "massive" weight loss of maybe 0.5kg *lol*

Oh and it's even worse, since he's listed being 77kg on the Garmin page

+1! He is the Kohl of this year's Tour, ie surprise package.

Weightloss. LA's approach seems to be working for Wiggo!

The Barb

Like everyone else, I would like to believe Wiggins is clean. The strides he has made as a climber, however, are even greater than those made by many riders who have subsequent been revealed to have been doping.

Watching the climb of Verbier both Contador and Wiggins gave me the same uneasy feeling I had when watching Ricco last year.

Parrot23

Yes, I've seen similar pics: he's a real stick figure now. Looks like he's out of a concentration camp.

Columbia's Aldag on Wiggins (July 14): "Rolf Aldag: I saw the big potential in him. We saw his SRM (power output) files, and it’s not a big surprise he’s doing so good here. We have files from the Giro time trial in 2008 and the wattage he posted there, it’s incredible. He’s incredibly strong. You see that number, you see he’s tall and skinny, and now he loses six more kilos… It’s just a question of his focus."

My opinion: the thing with Wiggins per his last Giro is that he can blow up (maybe it's his hematocrit naturally falling as a GT proceeds, and other guys' not).

Hard to say: clearly he has the motor/watts (pursuit power) and very clearly he has dropped a bucket load of kilos (NO doubt about that), and somehow been able to maintain a good part of the former. "Somehow" I suppose is the issue.

yourwelcome

The Barb said:
Watching the climb of Verbier both Contador and Wiggins gave me the same uneasy feeling I had when watching Ricco last year.

Same here.

Alpe d'Huez

He's definitely lost more than 1kg. He's starting to look like The Chicken, maybe even more skinny.

Still, I'm going to be surprised if he does well on Stage 17. We'll see. Remember that he completely cracked on the stage to Monte Petrano in the Giro, finishing at the back of the autobus, 4th from last place.

biker77

The picture after roubaix would suggest Wiggins has actually put on weight since april as he looks like he is literally starving. He did not look that thin in todays stage.

As I said in another thread, I am wiling to believe as long as there are no track victories for at least a year.

Chris L

Really interesting discussions here. Particularly with the climbing rates! Contadors performance really is off the charts.

Check out the video with Vaughters on Wiggins which mentions some power outputs:
http://vimeo.com/5449139
Also his track from the opening TT on Garmin Connect:
http://connect.garmin.com/player/7958896

Could his specialisation on road (in particular climbing) over the last 6 months be attributable? After all this is really his first big "go" at a TdF.
He has won six olympic medals and six(!) world championship titles in the pursuit, individual pursuit and madison (with Mark Cavendish no less) which obviously is going to take a serious level of training on the track. This year he's done little track and stuck to the road.

Personally I would be pretty suprised if he's doping given the team he's with and the amount of work he's done with British Cycling on the past few years, particularly in the run up to the Olympics! Perhaps that's my personal bias of seeing a British rider really performing in the GC though (for the first time in 25 years)!

C.

Juan Pelota

I'm asking a serious quesiton here..

The British track team is considered clean? They are so dominant..what's the perception and evidence for their being clean or dirty?

Disenchanted

Wiggins

I get the same feeling that I had when I saw Basso climbing Monte Zoncolan or Ricco on Col d' Aspin.... track star to mountain goat in one year!!! Why does the little guy on the back of my head keep whispering about giant scoops of salt to take with that performance...

A

Anonymous

Guest
biker77 said:
The picture after roubaix would suggest Wiggins has actually put on weight since april as he looks like he is literally starving. He did not look that thin in todays stage.

As I said in another thread, I am wiling to believe as long as there are no track victories for at least a year.

i truly beleive wiggins performance is down to weight loss, actually bothering to train for the road rather than the track, and not doing much track riding this year...

contador.. i like to beleive in riders, im not one of the cynical ones, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind, knowing his history, and watching the way he danced away from everyone, not just lance, but every single rider in the tour, for the SECOND time in the last week or so, the guy is doped to the eyeballs and i hope he gets caught, preferably before the end of the tour so we can see the true winner on the podium..

BroDeal

dimspace said:
i truly beleive wiggins performance is down to weight loss, actually bothering to train for the road rather than the track, and not doing much track riding this year...

contador.. i like to beleive in riders, im not one of the cynical ones, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind, knowing his history, and watching the way he danced away from everyone, not just lance, but every single rider in the tour, for the SECOND time in the last week or so, the guy is doped to the eyeballs and i hope he gets caught, preferably before the end of the tour so we can see the true winner on the podium..

Yeah, a Brit would never dope. Spaniards on the other hand...doped to the eyeballs.

If only Contador would have ridden on the track, then we could put his performance down to concentrating on the road and a little weight loss.

Cobber

dimspace said:
i truly beleive wiggins performance is down to weight loss, actually bothering to train for the road rather than the track, and not doing much track riding this year...

contador.. i like to beleive in riders, im not one of the cynical ones, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind, knowing his history, and watching the way he danced away from everyone, not just lance, but every single rider in the tour, for the SECOND time in the last week or so, the guy is doped to the eyeballs and i hope he gets caught, preferably before the end of the tour so we can see the true winner on the podium..

+1... what he said!

Chris L

British track cycling clean? Good question, they've got a seriously anti-doping stance. Take a look at how David Brailsford is going about selecting riders for Team Sky+ HD...biological passports, interviewing previous teammates, etc. Also look at how David Millar will never be allowed to represent GB in the Olympics or Worlds after his doping.

If you watch the track cycling races they GB never really "dominate", its usually some seriously tense stuff. This would suggest most of the other big track cycling teams are doping as well. Then again the two world records in the team pursuit was absolutely stunning, as is grabbing 8 out of 18 golds. Take a look at the performance drop off in Pruskow after they didn't have their grade-A equipment (or riders - Hoy, Wiggins, Romero, Clancy, Manning, etc).
They piled millions into the cycling program for the 2008 Olympics, particularly into coaching and technology (headed up by Chris Boardman)...expect more of the same for 2012.
Did this go into doping? If it did I'd be ****ed off as a taxpayer!