Pre Giro d' Italia-thread!

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Re: Re:

Jspear said:
Koronin said:
Koronin said:
Jspear said:
Koronin said:
Ah but Nibali IS extremely good on the cobbles and I expect him to put a good chunk of time into most of the other GC riders. Nibali will also have the Izagirre brothers.

Many of the fans are expecting a complete implosion at the Tour by Movistar due to well Landa and Quintana getting into a war and as I said don't expect either one to be in contention by the time the cobbled stage is over. They are expecting at least a 2 minute deficit from the TTT and more time shed on the cobbles. The only one capable of clawing back time over the cobbles is Valverde who is saying he won't be anywhere near peak as he's using the Tour to get in shape for la Vuelta. Many of the fans are also expecting a lot of infighting during the Tour.

Yes you can easily have a team that is non existent at the Giro and then a complete implosion at the Tour. That is very possibly and highly likely with this team. Heck we saw a complete collapse by this team last year when Valverde got hurt. They are very much on the edge of a collapse or implosion as it is.
There’s no proof that the team will implode in the Tour. Quintana knows how to ride the Tour. He doesn’t need Valverde or anyone else to hold his hand. Landa and Quintana might not get along but they can still both be up there in the GC. Teams have done that many a time. Nibali and Froome could both puncture 15 times on the cobbles and Quintana and Landa could both finish 5 minutes ahead of them. There’s just no way of knowing. They’re pros. They’ll do just fine. They’ll either win the Tour or have someone on the podium. That’s a near certainty.

It's a fact that the team completely and totally collapsed last year when Valverde got hurt. They disappeared in the Tour and the Vuelta and really every other race they were a part of except the two sprint one day races that Carlos Barbero was the race leader for. If anything Quintana proved in last year's Tour that he is not capable of leading this team. Being pros has NEVER stopped teams from having major issues with having two (let a lone 3) top GC riders on one team before. It is highly likely they won't put anyone on the podium this year just like they haven't done in a GT for 2 and after the Giro 3 consecutive GTs. It's as likely they will have someone on the podium as it is that they will implode.
Quintana rode the Giro before he rode the Tour. That explains his poor showing. It has nothing to do with Valverde crashing. That's also why they weren't showing anything in the Vuelta. Because Quintana (or Valverde) wasn't there to give them a strong result. Would he have won the Tour without the Giro in his legs? Probably not, but he would have been better then 12th. It had nothing to do with Valverde. Quintana knows how to podium without the help of Valverde.

Sorry, but for Quintana that is only another excuse. Contador at 32 raced the Giro (won) then finished top 5 in the Tour. Valverde at 36 raced the Giro (3rd) then finished 6th at the Tour (then threw in a 12th at the Vuelta for good measure). Quintana at a much YOUNGER age could not come close to what the two Spanish stars were able to do. He proved he could not lead the team. Yes the team totally collapsed. They literally had only 2 results the entire rest of the seasons (both Carlos Barbero). His claim that the Giro is the reason is just another excuse or he's flat out admitting that both Contador and Valverde are better than he is. Also I remember 6 of the Movistar riders flat out stated they could not get their heads back into the Tour after Valverde's injury for several days and that led to several crashes. There is a LOT more to leadership than just results. Quintana could NOT get his teammates focus back into the race.
Please do tell - If Valverde hadn't crashed out of the Tour, what place would Quintana have gotten in the GC then?....[/quote]

No idea. However, Quintana could NOT get his teammates heads back into the race after Valverde crashed out. You do understand there is a lot more to leadership than just results. The fact that several riders said it took them between 5 and 7 stages to get their heads back into the race is a direct lack of leadership by Quintana. The Giro being raced previously to the Tour was just an excuse for Quintana to use. He SHOULD have been able to finish in the top 10. He SHOULD have been able to prove better leadership to a team that desperately needed it after Valverde got hurt and he could not do so.
If you base a Giro/Tour double on what Valverde and Contador did, then Quintana SHOULD have been in the top 5 of the Tour as Contador was. Considering Quintana is supposed to be a GT specialist as Contador was. Valverde is not a GT specialist and had a better double than Quintana did. Quintana ended up outside the top 10.
 
I agree Quintana should have done better. I just hate to break it to you...his performance in the Tour had nothing to do with Valverde. The teams poor performance might have, but Quintana isn’t that dependent on Valverde. He really isn’t. He could care less about Valverde. I guess that’s really my main point. Quintana riding poorly in the Tour would have happened even if Valverde was there.
 
Re:

Jspear said:
I agree Quintana should have done better. I just hate to break it to you...his performance in the Tour had nothing to do with Valverde. The teams poor performance might have, but Quintana isn’t that dependent on Valverde. He really isn’t. He could care less about Valverde. I guess that’s really my main point. Quintana riding poorly in the Tour would have happened even if Valverde was there.
But what it proved is he can't lead the team. That was the point. He proved he couldn't lead the team and the team collapsed. The team collapsed because their leader had a career threatening injury and several of the riders said they couldn't get their heads back into the game. A guy who is supposed to be a leader should have been getting them back into the race. Both Amador and Sutterlin said they crashed on stage 2 due to their heads not being on the race.
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
Jspear said:
I agree Quintana should have done better. I just hate to break it to you...his performance in the Tour had nothing to do with Valverde. The teams poor performance might have, but Quintana isn’t that dependent on Valverde. He really isn’t. He could care less about Valverde. I guess that’s really my main point. Quintana riding poorly in the Tour would have happened even if Valverde was there.
But what it proved is he can't lead the team. That was the point. He proved he couldn't lead the team and the team collapsed. The team collapsed because their leader had a career threatening injury and several of the riders said they couldn't get their heads back into the game. A guy who is supposed to be a leader should have been getting them back into the race. Both Amador and Sutterlin said they crashed on stage 2 due to their heads not being on the race.
But lets come back full circle to this Tour. That's still no proof that they will do bad this year. That just makes no sense, since Quintana HAS done well in the Tour. There's NO reason to believe he will do poorly when he's planning his entire year around this Tour. He's done well in the past and he is MORE likely to do well then he is to ride poorly.
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
Koronin said:
Jspear said:
I agree Quintana should have done better. I just hate to break it to you...his performance in the Tour had nothing to do with Valverde. The teams poor performance might have, but Quintana isn’t that dependent on Valverde. He really isn’t. He could care less about Valverde. I guess that’s really my main point. Quintana riding poorly in the Tour would have happened even if Valverde was there.
But what it proved is he can't lead the team. That was the point. He proved he couldn't lead the team and the team collapsed. The team collapsed because their leader had a career threatening injury and several of the riders said they couldn't get their heads back into the game. A guy who is supposed to be a leader should have been getting them back into the race. Both Amador and Sutterlin said they crashed on stage 2 due to their heads not being on the race.
But lets come back full circle to this Tour. That's still no proof that they will do bad this year. That just makes no sense, since Quintana HAS done well in the Tour. There's NO reason to believe he will do poorly when he's planning his entire year around this Tour. He's done well in the past and he is MORE likely to do well then he is to ride poorly.

True, although this year he's going to go very under raced. He will have raced a total of 4 races before the Tour. Not sure that's exactly smart either. The race in Colombia, Catalonia, Basque and Suisse. Is that smart, who knows. There's also a question as to rather he's hit is ceiling or not. He does not appear to have improved over the past 3-4 years and in some ways appears to have regressed a little.
Landa will have raced 4 stage races: Andalucia, T-A, Basque, Suisse, plus the Ardennes and the Spanish National Championships. So a bit more racing to be ready.

Quintana SHOULD do much better this year. However that still does not mean he has the ability to actually lead the team. What he proved last year is that he can't lead the team. Not based on his overall results, but based on the fact he couldn't get his teammates heads back into the race. That is what a leader is supposed to do. Leadership has a lot of qualities to it and so far Quintana has not shown he has them.

Now does Landa have those leadership qualities? Who knows, he's never been in a position to have to show if he does or not.
 
The reason why Movistar sucked was because their best rider crashed (who they were dependent on making a result, even winning) and Quintana was in horrible shape after the Giro. The rest of the team was bad as well, but I don't think it comes down to leadership, rather the ability of the different riders.
 
I guess we can confirm now that the skiing incident in fact cost Soler his Romandie and Giro participation. He was scheduled to race both instantly. That's upper stupid. Would've been a legitimate leader after winning P-N, even with sending Quintana, Landa, Valverde and Amador to the Tour.

Now, I wouldn't be surprised if Movistar ends up with an early pink jersey. Sky and Sunweb ain't got no interest to protect it from day 6 on already, while Aru, Lopez and Pinot can still earn it on Mount Zoncolan. So they might let go a group on Mount Etna. If for example Sepulveda is in there he's got a good chance to win from the break and carry around the pink jersey until Zoncolan. Normally he shouldn't lose minutes on Campo Imperatore and Montevergine!
 
Aug 20, 2017
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@Jspear and @Koronin
So there is no conclusion if Movistar implodes or wins sth but at least you have proved you both are from USA. :lol:
 
Re: Re:

Koronin said:
Broccolidwarf said:
Koronin said:
Jspear said:
Koronin said:
Ah but Nibali IS extremely good on the cobbles and I expect him to put a good chunk of time into most of the other GC riders. Nibali will also have the Izagirre brothers.

Many of the fans are expecting a complete implosion at the Tour by Movistar due to well Landa and Quintana getting into a war and as I said don't expect either one to be in contention by the time the cobbled stage is over. They are expecting at least a 2 minute deficit from the TTT and more time shed on the cobbles. The only one capable of clawing back time over the cobbles is Valverde who is saying he won't be anywhere near peak as he's using the Tour to get in shape for la Vuelta. Many of the fans are also expecting a lot of infighting during the Tour.

Yes you can easily have a team that is non existent at the Giro and then a complete implosion at the Tour. That is very possibly and highly likely with this team. Heck we saw a complete collapse by this team last year when Valverde got hurt. They are very much on the edge of a collapse or implosion as it is.
There’s no proof that the team will implode in the Tour. Quintana knows how to ride the Tour. He doesn’t need Valverde or anyone else to hold his hand. Landa and Quintana might not get along but they can still both be up there in the GC. Teams have done that many a time. Nibali and Froome could both puncture 15 times on the cobbles and Quintana and Landa could both finish 5 minutes ahead of them. There’s just no way of knowing. They’re pros. They’ll do just fine. They’ll either win the Tour or have someone on the podium. That’s a near certainty.

It's a fact that the team completely and totally collapsed last year when Valverde got hurt. They disappeared in the Tour and the Vuelta and really every other race they were a part of except the two sprint one day races that Carlos Barbero was the race leader for. If anything Quintana proved in last year's Tour that he is not capable of leading this team. Being pros has NEVER stopped teams from having major issues with having two (let a lone 3) top GC riders on one team before. It is highly likely they won't put anyone on the podium this year just like they haven't done in a GT for 2 and after the Giro 3 consecutive GTs. It's as likely they will have someone on the podium as it is that they will implode.
Just for the sake of argument, what team do you see Movistar put into the tour, that will "implode"?

Who are the 5 riders, apart from Quintana, Landa and Valverde?

My guess is:
Anacona, Amador, Sutterlin, Oliveira, Betancur/Bennati
- and you are saying Movistar will get crushed on a TTT, with that team? :D

Let's do some examples:

Amador: 10th and 9th at the Giro ITTs in 2017
Sutterlin: 12th at the Tour ITT in 2017
Oliveira: 24th at the Vuelta ITT in 2017
Betancur: 8th at the Vuelta ITT in 2017

Your math seems off :)
 
I think Broccolidwarf mixed up the TTT and the ITT, since Betancur got 8th in the TTT which obviously isn't great. And generally I really think the ITT results he posted make things look better than they are. For a TTT and an ITT you don't need the exact same skill set. Even Pozzovivo once had a superb Vuelta ITT, but because he is so small he isn't a good fit for a TTT. Besides, those lightweight climbers might be decent if they can ride their own pace for a long time like in an ITT, but if they have to ride very short intervals like in a TTT completely different kind of riders become important. For example, Contador in his prime was one of the absolute best ITT riders but in a TTT I'd take someone like Sagan any minute.
And even if you use performances from ITT's as an indicator for how well someone will do in an TTT, compare that Movistar team to what Sky will bring to the Tour. Sky probably has 5 riders whose best ITT performances are more impressive than the best ITT performance of any Movistar rider who'll ride the tour.

On another note,
@Koronin:
I know you really, really like Valverde, but please stop claiming absolutely everything that goes well for Movistar goes well because of him, while everything that goes wrong goes wrong because he wasn't there.
-Quintana wins the Vuelta with his ambush attack to Formigal: "It was Valverde's plan. He didn't even tell Quintana the plan, but Quintana only did it because of Valverde anyway"
-Movistar is bad in the Tour: "It's just because of Valverdes crash, Quintana has performed well without Valverde countless times, but I'm sure it's just because of the crash anyway"

I'm almost surprised you don't claim Quintana only won the 2014 giro because of Valverde too. I just counted and if I didn't overlook something, of Quintanas 34 pro victories he got only 4 riding together with Valverde. If anything, one could claim Quintana lost a tdf because of Valverde. I'm sure Valverde is a good leader and very popular in the team and probably the team works a bit better if Valverde is part of it, but that effect isn't anywhere near as big as you are trying to convince us it is. Movistar will not completely collapse as soon as Valverde is gone, it will collapse if everyone is in s*it shape or crashes out like in the tour and the vuelta last year.
 
Re:

staubsauger said:
The sprinters field looks like a walk in the park for Viviani. Does he manage to fail against Bennett, Van Poppel and Mareczko nevertheless?
Nah I think he’s stepped up this year. With the lead out plus his good top speed he’s proven to perform even when the best are there. Quickstep just won’t lose.
 
Gigs_98 said:
I think Broccolidwarf mixed up the TTT and the ITT, since Betancur got 8th in the TTT which obviously isn't great. And generally I really think the ITT results he posted make things look better than they are. For a TTT and an ITT you don't need the exact same skill set. Even Pozzovivo once had a superb Vuelta ITT, but because he is so small he isn't a good fit for a TTT. Besides, those lightweight climbers might be decent if they can ride their own pace for a long time like in an ITT, but if they have to ride very short intervals like in a TTT completely different kind of riders become important. For example, Contador in his prime was one of the absolute best ITT riders but in a TTT I'd take someone like Sagan any minute.
And even if you use performances from ITT's as an indicator for how well someone will do in an TTT, compare that Movistar team to what Sky will bring to the Tour. Sky probably has 5 riders whose best ITT performances are more impressive than the best ITT performance of any Movistar rider who'll ride the tour.

On another note,
@Koronin:
I know you really, really like Valverde, but please stop claiming absolutely everything that goes well for Movistar goes well because of him, while everything that goes wrong goes wrong because he wasn't there.
-Quintana wins the Vuelta with his ambush attack to Formigal: "It was Valverde's plan. He didn't even tell Quintana the plan, but Quintana only did it because of Valverde anyway"
-Movistar is bad in the Tour: "It's just because of Valverdes crash, Quintana has performed well without Valverde countless times, but I'm sure it's just because of the crash anyway"

I'm almost surprised you don't claim Quintana only won the 2014 giro because of Valverde too. I just counted and if I didn't overlook something, of Quintanas 34 pro victories he got only 4 riding together with Valverde. If anything, one could claim Quintana lost a tdf because of Valverde. I'm sure Valverde is a good leader and very popular in the team and probably the team works a bit better if Valverde is part of it, but that effect isn't anywhere near as big as you are trying to convince us it is. Movistar will not completely collapse as soon as Valverde is gone, it will collapse if everyone is in s*it shape or crashes out like in the tour and the vuelta last year.

Yeah, meant to list the 30th place from the tour, on the same page ;) - Oh well - the point still stands..... there is no reason to think Movistar is lose significantly on the TTT :)

Secondly, you first say you need a different skill set for TTT, thereby disqualifying the ITT skills of Movistar riders...... then - in the same post - list the ITT skills of Sky as an argument for why they will beat Movistar convincingly on the TTT?
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
staubsauger said:
The sprinters field looks like a walk in the park for Viviani. Does he manage to fail against Bennett, Van Poppel and Mareczko nevertheless?
Nah I think he’s stepped up this year. With the lead out plus his good top speed he’s proven to perform even when the best are there. Quickstep just won’t lose.
because of the weak sprinters field I think that the breaks will be advantaged, or QS will have to work all day, everyday
 
Impressive how certain WT teams are bringing their 2nd or 3rd lines for the Giro, going on holiday in Italy hoping to win a stage from the break. Androni and Bardiani (Ciccone) have more objectives than some WT squads. Absurd system which forces all teams to race all races.
 
Re:

EroicaStradeBianche said:
Impressive how certain WT teams are bringing their 2nd or 3rd lines for the Giro, going on holiday in Italy hoping to win a stage from the break. Androni and Bardiani (Ciccone) have more objectives than some WT squads. Absurd system which forces all teams to race all races.

These are the teams that are more likely to win from a break. Along with teams like Lotto Soudal. Some WT teams are sending their 2nd and 3rd teams. Although I'd say Movistar is sending their 5th or 6th team. Betancur (sole or shared leader with Fernandez) are 6th/7th GC guys on that teams depth chart. They are literally sending a team to just be there with no goals of any kind. Quickstep is at least sending a sprint team for Viviani (which is understandable). And Slipstream/EF Education is at least sending a team that should be entertaining.
 
Gigs_98 said:
I think Broccolidwarf mixed up the TTT and the ITT, since Betancur got 8th in the TTT which obviously isn't great. And generally I really think the ITT results he posted make things look better than they are. For a TTT and an ITT you don't need the exact same skill set. Even Pozzovivo once had a superb Vuelta ITT, but because he is so small he isn't a good fit for a TTT. Besides, those lightweight climbers might be decent if they can ride their own pace for a long time like in an ITT, but if they have to ride very short intervals like in a TTT completely different kind of riders become important. For example, Contador in his prime was one of the absolute best ITT riders but in a TTT I'd take someone like Sagan any minute.
And even if you use performances from ITT's as an indicator for how well someone will do in an TTT, compare that Movistar team to what Sky will bring to the Tour. Sky probably has 5 riders whose best ITT performances are more impressive than the best ITT performance of any Movistar rider who'll ride the tour.

On another note,
@Koronin:
I know you really, really like Valverde, but please stop claiming absolutely everything that goes well for Movistar goes well because of him, while everything that goes wrong goes wrong because he wasn't there.
-Quintana wins the Vuelta with his ambush attack to Formigal: "It was Valverde's plan. He didn't even tell Quintana the plan, but Quintana only did it because of Valverde anyway"
-Movistar is bad in the Tour: "It's just because of Valverdes crash, Quintana has performed well without Valverde countless times, but I'm sure it's just because of the crash anyway"

I'm almost surprised you don't claim Quintana only won the 2014 giro because of Valverde too. I just counted and if I didn't overlook something, of Quintanas 34 pro victories he got only 4 riding together with Valverde. If anything, one could claim Quintana lost a tdf because of Valverde. I'm sure Valverde is a good leader and very popular in the team and probably the team works a bit better if Valverde is part of it, but that effect isn't anywhere near as big as you are trying to convince us it is. Movistar will not completely collapse as soon as Valverde is gone, it will collapse if everyone is in s*it shape or crashes out like in the tour and the vuelta last year.

Quintana won that Giro because he attacked while the race was neutralized and they didn't penalize him for it.
Formigal stage was a plan that Valverde and Contador came up with together. I remember after the Vuelta that Contador stated he would never again work with a Quintana led team after that as well.
 

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