Pre La Vuelta-thread

[movingtarget]

The best out of form or recently injured rider wins...........that's what makes the race so hard to call. There are doubts about most of the so called favourites. I think the winner comes from Quintana,Simon Yates, Uran or dare I say it Richie Porte but there are probably another four that could win it if they find form.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

No Landa. All in for Quintana for GC. Hope Nairo has something left from TdF.

Nope, they have specifically stated that Valverde and Quintana are co-race leaders for la Vuelta. They are not all in for Quintana and they'd end up POing a lot of Spanish fans if they did as well. They're already POing a lot of Spanish fans because there are only 2 Spaniards on the Vuelta team as it is.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

Yeah but it's been a couple of seasons now hasn't it, since his best GC results? I did mean not as good a shot to win (not podium), didn't make that clear. All the things you said could happen, but they also may not. What if Richie finally catches a break? If Yates has learnt and recovered well from Giro? If Quintana wins a couple of MTF's? I just haven't seen Valverde produce on the biggest stages in recent GT's to see him as a winner here. Again, I like him a lot and I'd be happy to be wrong on this.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

Yeah but it's been a couple of seasons now hasn't it, since his best GC results? I did mean not as good a shot to win (not podium), didn't make that clear. All the things you said could happen, but they also may not. What if Richie finally catches a break? If Yates has learnt and recovered well from Giro? If Quintana wins a couple of MTF's? I just haven't seen Valverde produce on the biggest stages in recent GT's to see him as a winner here. Again, I like him a lot and I'd be happy to be wrong on this.

2015 finally got podium at the Tour. 2015 Vuelta (hurt his shoulder). 2016 Giro podium, 2016 Tour 6th, 2016 Vuelta 12th. Remember that was his 5th GT in a row AND 3rd GT in one season. The only other rider in the peloton do that is Adam Hanson. 2017 he didn't race a GT due to the crash and broken kneecap that by all rights should have been career ending. So the last time he raced the Vuelta without injury or it being his 3rd GT in a year was 2014 when he got a podium. Not sure how you can count last since he didn't race any. It's also well know that your first GT back after a year or more without a GT is going to be harder because you don't have a GT in your legs and truthfully his Tour this year wasn't a horrible as his 2012 Tour was. He got a podium at the 2012 Vuelta. Also remember he actually looks at podiums as about the same as a win and really wants another podium at la Vuelta as it will tie a record. That is one of those records he really wants. Also remember he values podiums as much as wins and talks about some of the podium records he has and values actually more than wins. He was asked acouple years ago if he'd trade in his 6 World's podiums for one win and he said no that he values that record and the record of most years between first and most recent Worlds podium as it shows his consistency and longevity is the sport. He's said something similar about his Vuelta podiums and the record he has with those as longest time between first and most recent.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

Geraint Thomas defeated history so there is no reason other's can't. Valverde had had a great career but I don't see a 38 year old winning the Vuelta and yes I know Horner was older. Podium at best. Quintana should probably be favourite, along with Uran if he can repeat his 2017 Tour ride. Porte, Pinot, Yates and a few others should be thereabouts.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

Geraint Thomas defeated history so there is no reason other's can't. Valverde had had a great career but I don't see a 38 year old winning the Vuelta and yes I know Horner was older. Podium at best. Quintana should probably be favourite, along with Uran if he can repeat his 2017 Tour ride. Porte, Pinot, Yates and a few others should be thereabouts.

Not only has Quintana not shown any form, he has appeared to be in decline. Uran and Porte yes, plus they can do very good TTs. Pinot's TTing is inconsistent. Quintana still can't TT. IF Valverde is actually targeting the Vuelta (which with his comments, who knows if he is or isn't), he should be considered as much of a favorite as anyone else. One more difference is Valverde has gotten podiums with teams that couldn't support a GT GC rider while Quintana has had great support for all of his podiums/wins. Also remember Valverde would be extremely happy with another podium. He loves podiums as much as wins.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

the more a look at the start list the more i like Bahrain chances.
my only doubts is witch of the brothers will be better and if the team will be committed to one of them..

 

[Koronin]

Re:

the more a look at the start list the more i like Bahrain chances.
my only doubts is witch of the brothers will be better and if the team will be committed to one of them..

I like their line up as well. I think the team will commit to one of them. As for which one I wouldn't be surprised if the brothers are allowed to make that decision themselves. They won't hurt the team by being allowed to choose which one is better for the race.

 

[Gigs_98]

Weren't there some talks about valverde not going for the gc but instead entirely focussing on his worlds preparation?

 

[hammerthaim]

Valverde for world's podium, not a Vuelta one. Zakarin is the only guy that was getting comparatively better at the end of the Tour. Could count Mollema at San Seb.... So many riders coming from injuries at the tour. Hard to call. S.Yates for me.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

the more a look at the start list the more i like Bahrain chances.
my only doubts is witch of the brothers will be better and if the team will be committed to one of them..

Ion is the leader, and I think he's a better GT rider as well as his climbing is better than Gorka's.

 

[dastott]

Such an open race, can't wait for the first GC action. If Valverde is not in decline he has a fair chance at a podium I think but don't think he'll actually be challenging for the win. That will probably be between Quintana, S. Yates and Porte, with MAL and Carapaz as dark horses.

 

[Robert5091]

Stage 16's 32 km long ITT might well dash some climber's dreams. If LRP stays upright (and that's a big if) then it might well win the Vuelta for him.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I think S.Yates has a good chance if he doesn't go all out in the first couple of weeks. That was his downfall in the Giro. He thought he needed to gain as much time on Froome and Dumo to protect himself in the TT. He doesn't have those 2 to worry about in the Vuelta. Yes, there are a few who can TT better than him here but not on the level of the 2 big ones. I don't think S.Yates will make the same mistake as in the Giro.

 

[Lexman]

Do you really think Porte is ready for GC? I'm not provoking just asking, was his recovery fast enough to ride already for GC?

 

[Tim Booth]

Re:

Do you really think Porte is ready for GC? I'm not provoking just asking, was his recovery fast enough to ride already for GC?

“Of course, I would like to do well in my last Grand Tour for BMC Racing Team but you never know where your form is when you haven’t had an ideal run into a race. After crashing out of the Tour de France, I had to have some time off and it took me a while to get back to work due to my injuries. I have put in some good training since then but I won’t be lining up in the shape I was in before the Tour de France,” Porte said.
“At first, I think I will definitely be taking the race day-by-day. The last week is pretty hard so you don’t know what could happen there but, we have a great team lining up with lots of good options. There’s definitely also a carrot dangling in front of me at the Vuelta with the UCI World Championships being a climber’s course so it will be good preparation for that.”

 

[rick james]

Why does Quintana have 2 asterisks beside his wins??

 

[telencefalus]

Re:

Why does Quintana have 2 asterisks beside his wins??

leave him alone he is a quintana BIG hater and an even bigger valverde fan boy.
Valverde is not going to podium la vuelta, he wants the worlds
as for quintana i really don't know what to expect , pretty inconsistent , maybe a podium and stages victories

 

[Squire]

Re:

Why does Quintana have 2 asterisks beside his wins??

Some people think he won the Giro because he raced the 'neutralized' descent, and won the Vuelta thanks to Contador's attack catching Froome off guard, and that those things somehow make his wins less legit.

Following that train of thought, you'd have to put an asterisk beside every game of chess ever played.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Movistar is sending a nice team, but nothing like what they had 2-3 years ago. Their selections are making very little sense.

Valverde has as good of a shot of winning and definitely getting a final podium as any other GC rider has at this race. This is his favorite race of the season AND he's chasing history at it. He needs one more podium and one more green jersey to tie overall records. He already holds the most years between first and most recent win and first and most recent podium.

I love Valverde, but there is no way he has as good a shot as Richie/Yates/Quintana. He will lose time on nearly all the big MTF's. Would like to be wrong on that, but history says it will happen.

Except this is la Vuelta and is much more suited to his abilities. Also Yates and Richie have yet to win a GT and Quintana's two get asterisks. Valverde also has 8 total GT podiums with 6 of those being at la Vuelta. History tells us that Porte won't finish and that Yates will blow up at some point. History also tells us that Quintana is unlikely to win or even podium at la Vuelta.

Geraint Thomas defeated history so there is no reason other's can't. Valverde had had a great career but I don't see a 38 year old winning the Vuelta and yes I know Horner was older. Podium at best. Quintana should probably be favourite, along with Uran if he can repeat his 2017 Tour ride. Porte, Pinot, Yates and a few others should be thereabouts.

Not only has Quintana not shown any form, he has appeared to be in decline. Uran and Porte yes, plus they can do very good TTs. Pinot's TTing is inconsistent. Quintana still can't TT. IF Valverde is actually targeting the Vuelta (which with his comments, who knows if he is or isn't), he should be considered as much of a favorite as anyone else. One more difference is Valverde has gotten podiums with teams that couldn't support a GT GC rider while Quintana has had great support for all of his podiums/wins. Also remember Valverde would be extremely happy with another podium. He loves podiums as much as wins.

Quintana has improved his TT somewhat but his climbing is not peak Quintana 2013/15. He had a couple of falls in the Tour but I still think he can do well in the Vuelta without having to worry about Sky's A Team and there are queries about most of his rivals as well. There is no clear favourite even clear two favourites. Aru really needs a result but who knows how he will go ? The most open grand tour for many years. Valverde making the podium would not surprise me. He may not get a better opportunity to make another podium.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Why does Quintana have 2 asterisks beside his wins??

There’s always a way to explain away a riders win when you don’t like them. I have an asterisk on all Froomes wins. :lol:

Kidding....

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Why does Quintana have 2 asterisks beside his wins??

Some people think he won the Giro because he raced the 'neutralized' descent, and won the Vuelta thanks to Contador's attack catching Froome off guard, and that those things somehow make his wins less legit.

Following that train of thought, you'd have to put an asterisk beside every game of chess ever played.

:lol:

In this forum they have asterisks in just about every rider!

 

[Pantani_lives]

The Vuelta confirms its status as re-examination for riders with a thus far more or less disappointing season.

Crashed out of Tour: Porte, Nibali, Urán
Disappointing Tour: Quintana*, A. Yates
Disappointing Giro: Aru, Pinot, S. Yates

*Quintana did win a great Tour stage, and it always looks good to put an asterisk behind his name.

In spite of being the race of second chances this might be the most entertaining GT of the year, because we don't know in advance who's going to win. It's hard to predict what the shape will be of some of these big names. Apart from the seven names above we also have M.A. Lopez, Valverde, Mollema, Kruijswijk and Zakarin, so I expect an open race with shifting chances.