Pre Tour de France-thread

[vladimir]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Fuglsang said they have never practiced it, as in ever.

They are doing a 3 day TTT training camp later this week in Nice, for the 12 in the picture for the Tour squad - and probably do final selection after that.

It seems the team is not as set as I thought, with arguably 2 spots up for grabs.

The certain ones are:

Fuglsang
Kangert
Cataldo
Valgren
Cort
Sanchez has said he is riding the Tour publicly, so would assume he is certain too

Last two spots are open, and very dependent on who can also perform at the TTT training, as well as work for Fuglsang in the mountains (the first 6 can all do cobbles, TT and climbs).

I'd say Fraile, Hansen, Gatto, Kozhatayev and Gidich are fighting over the 2 spots.

Personally, I'd like to see Fraile and Gidich, who have both had great spring seasons.

Astana usually takes at least one Kazakh rider, and I have a feeling that this will be Gruzdev. He has ridden three of the last four TDFs and showed good form in Suisse. Good rider to do the dirtywork. I also think Kangert is more or less certain and if Fuglsang wants Hansen to make it four danes I suspect it will be:
Fuglsang
Valgren
Cort
Hansen
Kangert
Gruzdev
Lulu Sanchez
and either Fraile or Cataldo

 

[infeXio]

Re: Re:

Danish commentators said today at the TdS TT, that Fuglsang was riding an old TT bike, because his new one was delayed in shipping, so arguably, his TT should be better at the tour

Also got the little tidbit on EF and Astana, that they are both going on TTT training camp, with their tour squads, later this week - seems a lot of teams have full focus on that stage.

For Astana in particular this seems to be a pretty good idea.

Fuglsang said they have never practiced it, as in ever.

They are doing a 3 day TTT training camp later this week in Nice, for the 12 in the picture for the Tour squad - and probably do final selection after that.

It seems the team is not as set as I thought, with arguably 2 spots up for grabs.

The certain ones are:

Fuglsang
Kangert
Cataldo
Valgren
Cort
Sanchez has said he is riding the Tour publicly, so would assume he is certain too

Last two spots are open, and very dependent on who can also perform at the TTT training, as well as work for Fuglsang in the mountains (the first 6 can all do cobbles, TT and climbs).

I'd say Fraile, Hansen, Gatto, Kozhatayev and Gidich are fighting over the 2 spots.

Personally, I'd like to see Fraile and Gidich, who have both had great spring seasons.

They'll have a Kazakh in the team

 

[Koronin]

Movistar had some sort of press conference today in Madrid. They will make the final selections for the team after the National Championships. Unzue also confirmed they are going with 3 leaders and that after the cobbled stage they'll start figuring out strategy and seeing what options and who they still have in the mix for GC.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

The dead zone in the season between now and the start of the Tour sucks.

 

[Lequack]

Re:

The dead zone in the season between now and the start of the Tour sucks.

Blame the World Cup.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

The dead zone in the season between now and the start of the Tour sucks.

Blame the World Cup.

Yeah its pretty stupid, but then we get racing for a week more in the other end, so its not that bad. But it really feels wrong.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

The dead zone in the season between now and the start of the Tour sucks.

Blame the World Cup.

I appreciate not having to split attention too much

Once the Tour starts, the world cup will be only evening games, so it all works out

 

[Robert5091]

Is it too late to say I dislike the route of this years TdF?

Edit - How about Ag2r to push it on stage 5 to punsh the pure climbers? Bardet could gain some time - then again I could see Sky doing the same if the TTT does not go as planned.

 

[Brt147]

AG2R Team
Romain Bardet
Silvan Dillier
Axel Domont
Alexandre Geniez
Pierre Latour
Tony Gallopin
Oliver Naesen
Alexis Vuillermoz

I think that we don't have any big surprises with this team. I thought Gougeard would be a choice of the team for this Tour, anyway I think they present us a good team for all types of stages. Their problem can be the TTT, but we have seen improves since last year.

 

[SafeBet]

I was checking the odds:

Zakarin @ 60 (the Roubaix stage is a big concern, but this guy was 5th and 3rd in the last couple GTs he's ridden)
Kelderman @ 182 (looked great in Suisse bar the TT, was 4th in last year Vuelta)
Poels @ 251 (say Froome is tired and Thomas is, well, Thomas...)

 

[Broccolidwarf]

AG2R confirmed their Tour team:

Romain Bardet
Alexis Vuillermoz
Pierre Latour
Alexandre Geniez
Oliver Naesen
Tony Gallopin
Axel Domont
Silvan Dillier

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Pretty much as expected. I bet Naesen and Dillier are going to by worth their weight in gold in the Roubaix stage for Bardet

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Mathias Frank omission is a big surprise to me

 

[skippo12]

Re:

AG2R confirmed their Tour team:

Romain Bardet
Alexis Vuillermoz
Pierre Latour
Alexandre Geniez
Oliver Naesen
Tony Gallopin
Axel Domont
Silvan Dillier

This year won`t be Romains. Team time trial and cobbled stage. I fear that he will be down at least 3-5 minutes after stage 9.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Pretty much as expected. I bet Naesen and Dillier are going to by worth their weight in gold in the Roubaix stage for Bardet

Yeah, but it's a little like the EF team in that respect..... you gotta wonder if the captain can keep up on the cobbles, even if other riders on the team are good there.

I have a lot of respect for Bardet, he is very much like a young Nibali to me, so he may very well surprise me on the cobbles, in which case he can win the tour.

Their TTT looks fine with this line up (top 10), and they look like the strongest team of all in the mountains, together with Movistar.

 

[Valv.Piti]

To me its just a sligtly above mediocre team. They have a couple of very good rouleur types in Naesen, Gallopin and Dillier, but their climbers really don't wow me. A tired Geniez together with Domont, Vuillermoz and Latour isn't that good tbh. Surprised Frank didnt make it instead of Domont/Geniez.

 

[spalco]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Who else? I reckon Bardet is worth a mention even if a long shot. Still only 27. Has been riding well last few years, not a one trick climbing pony. Has finished on the podium the last two years. Obviously TT is his weakness but you never know.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Who else? I reckon Bardet is worth a mention even if a long shot. Still only 27. Has been riding well last few years, not a one trick climbing pony. Has finished on the podium the last two years. Obviously TT is his weakness but you never know.

Bardet's mountain gains never offset his TT losses and he also has the cobbles this year. He is a good climber but not a Contador or a Quintana 2015/16 but he is a very good descender and probably needs to make more use of that when he can. Probably needed more mountains in this race and no TTT to have a better shot at the win. Porte probably has an advantage over him this year with the TTT. If anything I think Bardet will find it harder to make the podium this year but it will be interesting to see what Bahrain and Movistar can do in the TTT as well. Nibali will also have to be aggressive on the descents if there is a chance of splitting the GC riders. Movistar's tactics should be quite interesting especially if Landa and Quintana are both in a good position going into the third week. Uran's team could also suffer in the TTT, their glory days in the TTT are long over. Michelton should do quite well for Yates. If Astana can do a decent TTT I think Fuglsang could be a rider to watch re the top five or so.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Porte's prospects by the prognosticators is like that of a young rider that has shown great potential in his early efforts in grand tour racing, looking for that one breakthrough year. Except like you say, he's 33 and has failed to live up to these lofty expectations for years. I can understand why he keeps getting this type of belief in his chances. He seems to have that one or two bad days, be it through just getting dropped or crashing. I guess his luck has to change at some point. He has shown that he can climb and time trial well enough to be capable of being on the podium in grand tours but over the course of three weeks he just seems to mysteriously find a way to blow away all of his chances. Even I figure that one of these times he's going to make it to the end of a grand tour problem free and find himself on the podium. I expect tears from him and his fans when this finally happens.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Porte's prospects by the prognosticators is like that of a young rider that has shown great potential in his early efforts in grand tour racing, looking for that one breakthrough year. Except like you say, he's 33 and has failed to live up to these lofty expectations for years. I can understand why he keeps getting this type of belief in his chances. He seems to have that one or two bad days, be it through just getting dropped or crashing. I guess his luck has to change at some point. He has shown that he can climb and time trial well enough to be capable of being on the podium in grand tours but over the course of three weeks he just seems to mysteriously find a way to blow away all of his chances. Even I figure that one of these times he's going to make it to the end of a grand tour problem free and find himself on the podium. I expect tears from him and his fans when this finally happens.

Dumoulin and Froome won't do the Giro next year probably. Would like to see Porte do the Giro/Vuelta if he does nothing in the Tour this year. It will probably be his last chance anyway at a podium. Or just forget it completely and do the one week stage races and stage hunt in GTs. Problem is wherever he signs next will expect him to ride for GC in grand tours. Can't see him going back to domestique duties for a younger rider.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Something did happen to Froome. He rode the Giro. Look, the Tour is where everyone comes in tip top form ready to give it their all. (I’m thinking of how people always said AC’s gt wins didn’t mean as much because they weren’t Tour wins. His were “easy”). That logic should be applied here. The Tour is the hardest to win apparently because it’s where the best riders are and they’re in the best possible shape. Froome is human. He won’t be able to beat the guys that have made the Tour their first and number one GT objective of the year.

I see no reason why Quintana can’t reach form from two years ago. Everyone has an off year. Oh no!....he only placed second in a Giro with a lot of TT miles. He was still okay. On top of that he might have been trying something different with his form to save himself for July. Obviously he messed up. That said, this year is definitely different. The Tour is his number one objective and he knows how to podium. He can (and it’s highly highly likely that he will) beat Froome.

I never know with Nibali. If he’s not bluffing and he can actually return to some of his old form, he’s definitely got a very fair shot at winning as well. I’ll be rooting for him personally.

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

 

[silvergrenade]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Something did happen to Froome. He rode the Giro. Look, the Tour is where everyone comes in tip top form ready to give it their all. (I’m thinking of how people always said AC’s gt wins didn’t mean as much because they weren’t Tour wins. His were “easy”). That logic should be applied here. The Tour is the hardest to win apparently because it’s where the best riders are and they’re in the best possible shape. Froome is human. He won’t be able to beat the guys that have made the Tour their first and number one GT objective of the year.

I see no reason why Quintana can’t reach form from two years ago. Everyone has an off year. Oh no!....he only placed second in a Giro with a lot of TT miles. He was still okay. On top of that he might have been trying something different with his form to save himself for July. Obviously he messed up. That said, this year is definitely different. The Tour is his number one objective and he knows how to podium. He can (and it’s highly highly likely that he will) beat Froome.

I never know with Nibali. If he’s not bluffing and he can actually return to some of his old form, he’s definitely got a very fair shot at winning as well. I’ll be rooting for him personally.

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

Great post!
The only thing I can contest is him starting as the favourite. I think the big reason is his overall capability. No matter what GT he starts, he will start as the favourite, given that he's already shown he can hold his form and win a GT double back to back.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

it's quite understandable. he is the only rider who could pull off double of two consecutive grand tours, his skillset is way wider than quintana's, after all there are Sky A team at hand, as well as individual and team time trials which are supposed to seal about 2'-2'30'' into his pocket. i'm not suggesting he will win or something, but what froome is capable of gives different racing options, while quintana should per se fly all over the mountains to win the tour.

to be honest, I don't see much of a difference between now and the pre-2011 tour situation when bertie was regarded as #1 favorite. both giri were conquered relatively easily, as it could seem visually, and there is some chance of strongest rider being able to reach even higher peak in the tour. clearly, it's far from certain, but there is just a chance. possibly it does apply to froome even to a bigger extent, because he can measure his effort and ride in an energy-saving mode like no one else does. otoh, if he cracks at penultimate climb of first multimountain stage, I won't be much surprised either.

 

[yaco]

I am confident that Bardet will have a good result - he's always well prepared for the TDF and seems to cope admirably with the 'French' pressure - Will lose time in the TTT and ITT, though he should be fine on the cobbles.