Pre Tour de France-thread

[Escarabajo]

With Froome and Dumoulin with the Giro in their legs there is no clear favorite IMHO. I think is wide open. Now cobbles could be a lottery as well.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

With Froome and Dumoulin with the Giro in their legs there is no clear favorite IMHO. I think is wide open. Now cobbles could be a lottery as well.

I think the whole first 9 days, is a perfect start to the tour, where a lot of GC favorites can get in trouble.

Only stage 7 and 8 will be "relaxed", because the big sprinter trains will dominate - but the other 7 days, the race is on, with wind, short sharp climbs, TTT and cobbles.

Fatigue is also going to be a factor week 1, because it is 9 race days in a row.... especially on the Roubaix stage.

Can't wait

 

[Lequack]

Re: Re:

With Froome and Dumoulin with the Giro in their legs there is no clear favorite IMHO. I think is wide open. Now cobbles could be a lottery as well.

I think the whole first 9 days, is a perfect start to the tour, where a lot of GC favorites can get in trouble.

Only stage 7 and 8 will be "relaxed", because the big sprinter trains will dominate - but the other 7 days, the race is on, with wind, short sharp climbs, TTT and cobbles.

Fatigue is also going to be a factor week 1, because it is 9 race days in a row.... especially on the Roubaix stage.

Can't wait

Eh, people always hype up the wind and small hils and what not, but in reality the first 9 stages, bar the TTT, will almost certain be bunch sprints, guaranteed. Now if these were one day classics then things would be different of course.

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Will the top 10-15 sprint and GC contenders take part?

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

With Froome and Dumoulin with the Giro in their legs there is no clear favorite IMHO. I think is wide open. Now cobbles could be a lottery as well.

I think the whole first 9 days, is a perfect start to the tour, where a lot of GC favorites can get in trouble.

Only stage 7 and 8 will be "relaxed", because the big sprinter trains will dominate - but the other 7 days, the race is on, with wind, short sharp climbs, TTT and cobbles.

Fatigue is also going to be a factor week 1, because it is 9 race days in a row.... especially on the Roubaix stage.

Can't wait

Eh, people always hype up the wind and small hils and what not, but in reality the first 9 stages, bar the TTT, will almost certain be bunch sprints, guaranteed. Now if these were one day classics then things would be different of course.

Really? The Roubaix stage and the Mur de Bretagne state will be bunch sprints?

 

[Valv.Piti]

The hilly stage before Mur de Bretagne is for puncheurs as well. Definitely not a sprinters stage.

The wind is a lottery as always, some areas are obviously more exposed- The thought of echelons the first couple of days alone will be enough to have some hard and extremely dangerous stages - hopefully most contenders get safely through.

 

[ferryman]

Being lazy here (but I KNOW one of you will know), are there time bonuses this year?

 

[Cookster15]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Something did happen to Froome. He rode the Giro. Look, the Tour is where everyone comes in tip top form ready to give it their all. (I’m thinking of how people always said AC’s gt wins didn’t mean as much because they weren’t Tour wins. His were “easy”). That logic should be applied here. The Tour is the hardest to win apparently because it’s where the best riders are and they’re in the best possible shape. Froome is human. He won’t be able to beat the guys that have made the Tour their first and number one GT objective of the year.

I see no reason why Quintana can’t reach form from two years ago. Everyone has an off year. Oh no!....he only placed second in a Giro with a lot of TT miles. He was still okay. On top of that he might have been trying something different with his form to save himself for July. Obviously he messed up. That said, this year is definitely different. The Tour is his number one objective and he knows how to podium. He can (and it’s highly highly likely that he will) beat Froome.

I never know with Nibali. If he’s not bluffing and he can actually return to some of his old form, he’s definitely got a very fair shot at winning as well. I’ll be rooting for him personally.

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

Yes great post. Froome will be the favourite for the same reason Alberto was favourite for the 2011 Tour. But I think Chris will find this a step too far just as Alberto did. The Giro Tour double is much, much harder than the Tour Vuelta double for the reasons you stated in your first paragraph. The Tour is simply targeted by more riders and teams.

In Froome's favour is I think his so so early Giro climbing form might have been an indication he deliberately delayed his prep so he would have more left in the tank for the Tour. Similar strategy used last year for Tour Vuelta.

I also think Porte will do well because he looks to have timed his peak perfectly. Yes he's 33, but he rode most of his career as a domestique and showed his potential in 2013, 2015 when he had to sit up for Froome on the second ascent of the Alpe and 2016 with BMC . Would have finished second if not for the early crash. Nibali's form is difficult to judge as you say, Movistar might have problems with leadership not just Nairo's peaking. Bardet is a wildcard would be great to see a French winner though I doubt due to his TT.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

it's quite understandable. he is the only rider who could pull off double of two consecutive grand tours, his skillset is way wider than quintana's, after all there are Sky A team at hand, as well as individual and team time trials which are supposed to seal about 2'-2'30'' into his pocket. i'm not suggesting he will win or something, but what froome is capable of gives different racing options, while quintana should per se fly all over the mountains to win the tour.

to be honest, I don't see much of a difference between now and the pre-2011 tour situation when bertie was regarded as #1 favorite. both giri were conquered relatively easily, as it could seem visually, and there is some chance of strongest rider being able to reach even higher peak in the tour. clearly, it's far from certain, but there is just a chance. possibly it does apply to froome even to a bigger extent, because he can measure his effort and ride in an energy-saving mode like no one else does. otoh, if he cracks at penultimate climb of first multimountain stage, I won't be much surprised either.

I think it’s quite understandable to put him on EQUAL grounds with a couple other riders. He’s definitely A favorite. Thats as generous as I can be.

 

[Angliru]

Re:

Being lazy here (but I KNOW one of you will know), are there time bonuses this year?

I believe so.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Being lazy here (but I KNOW one of you will know), are there time bonuses this year?

I believe so.

There are 10, 6, and 4

 

[Tonton]

Froome is the favorite, yes, that he's human is open for discussion elsewhere. Dumoulin is making a big gamble, I wish him the best. Bardet is prepared, yes the time trials can hurt him, but he is consistent and scouted the course more than most. Movistar is the story: if all three get out of the cobbles in striking position and play sound tactics, one of them will win.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Without the Giro, on this course Froome would be hot favourite.

Froome is still obviously a strong favourite, excluding possible complications of his legal problems.

Richie Porte is 33 and he has only two top10 GT GC results, none on the podium - why believe in him now? Quintana isn't even the clear leader in his own team, and Dumoulin also raced the Giro. Who else - Nibali, Landa? I guess they have a shot if circumstances are right, but something would have to happen to Froome imo.

Something did happen to Froome. He rode the Giro. Look, the Tour is where everyone comes in tip top form ready to give it their all. (I’m thinking of how people always said AC’s gt wins didn’t mean as much because they weren’t Tour wins. His were “easy”). That logic should be applied here. The Tour is the hardest to win apparently because it’s where the best riders are and they’re in the best possible shape. Froome is human. He won’t be able to beat the guys that have made the Tour their first and number one GT objective of the year.

I see no reason why Quintana can’t reach form from two years ago. Everyone has an off year. Oh no!....he only placed second in a Giro with a lot of TT miles. He was still okay. On top of that he might have been trying something different with his form to save himself for July. Obviously he messed up. That said, this year is definitely different. The Tour is his number one objective and he knows how to podium. He can (and it’s highly highly likely that he will) beat Froome.

I never know with Nibali. If he’s not bluffing and he can actually return to some of his old form, he’s definitely got a very fair shot at winning as well. I’ll be rooting for him personally.

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

I don't think Froome will do the double this year but would I be surprised if he did ? After the last 12 months, not particularly. Froome is the only rider currently riding who might do it as unlikely as it is. It will be interesting comparing Dumoulin's Tour performance to Froome's. Both good TT riders and both having done the Giro and Dumoulin's climbing is probably underrated simply because of his climbing style. That said, I give Dumoulin no chance in the Tour.

If Movistar, Bardet and Porte can't drop Froome in the final week after he's done the Giro I would be surprised. The Giro showed he can have bad days but not lose too much time. I expect the mountains to be much more aggressive than last year, they will have to be with Froome's time trial advantages. But I expect the TTT and cobbles to ruin the GC chances of some early in the race but that scenario won't help Froome in the final week with some climbers chasing the race. I think Froome will crack at some stage later in the race, it's just a matter of how badly. The final week of the Tour could end up being like last years Giro with five riders going into the TT with podium chances. If it doesn't then it's probably because the damage done in the TTT and cobbles was worse than expected. It looks pretty open, even more so than last year.

 

[Koronin]

Froome is the favorite, yes, that he's human is open for discussion elsewhere. Dumoulin is making a big gamble, I wish him the best. Bardet is prepared, yes the time trials can hurt him, but he is consistent and scouted the course more than most. Movistar is the story: if all three get out of the cobbles in striking position and play sound tactics, one of them will win.

That is the question and what makes Movistar an interesting story/subject for this Tour. If they get all 3 through the cobbles in contention can they keep them working together.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

Being lazy here (but I KNOW one of you will know), are there time bonuses this year?

I believe so.

There are 10, 6, and 4

PLUS! - http://inrng.com/2018/06/thursday-shorts-26/#more-33724

See the “B” on the profile above? This is another novelty in the Tour de France rules for 2018 is the “bonus point”, an intermediate sprint with no points for the points competition but instead with time bonuses of 3-2-1 seconds for the first three riders to the point and only for the first nine stages. It’s designed to spice up the race for the yellow jersey a bit more

Or if you want the Official Rule Book version - http://netstorage.lequipe.fr/ASO/cycling_tdf/tdf-2018-reglement.pdf

ARTICLE 26
|
TIME BONUSES
Time bonuses are awarded at the end of every
mass-start stage (i.e. no time bonuses on offer
in individual and team time trials). The first three
riders get 10, 6 and 4 seconds, respectively.
3, 2 and 1 seconds shall be awarded to the first
three riders at the Bonus Point in each of the first
nine stages (except for the stage 3 team time trial).
This shall have no effect on the points classification.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Being lazy here (but I KNOW one of you will know), are there time bonuses this year?

I believe so.

There are 10, 6, and 4

PLUS! - http://inrng.com/2018/06/thursday-shorts-26/#more-33724

See the “B” on the profile above? This is another novelty in the Tour de France rules for 2018 is the “bonus point”, an intermediate sprint with no points for the points competition but instead with time bonuses of 3-2-1 seconds for the first three riders to the point and only for the first nine stages. It’s designed to spice up the race for the yellow jersey a bit more

Clever, because that kind of a battle just tends to be so intense after a long TTT.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Dont question the geniuses of Christian Prudhomme, please.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

it's quite understandable. he is the only rider who could pull off double of two consecutive grand tours, his skillset is way wider than quintana's, after all there are Sky A team at hand, as well as individual and team time trials which are supposed to seal about 2'-2'30'' into his pocket. i'm not suggesting he will win or something, but what froome is capable of gives different racing options, while quintana should per se fly all over the mountains to win the tour.

to be honest, I don't see much of a difference between now and the pre-2011 tour situation when bertie was regarded as #1 favorite. both giri were conquered relatively easily, as it could seem visually, and there is some chance of strongest rider being able to reach even higher peak in the tour. clearly, it's far from certain, but there is just a chance. possibly it does apply to froome even to a bigger extent, because he can measure his effort and ride in an energy-saving mode like no one else does. otoh, if he cracks at penultimate climb of first multimountain stage, I won't be much surprised either.

I think it’s quite understandable to put him on EQUAL grounds with a couple other riders. He’s definitely A favorite. Thats as generous as I can be.

well, you was always being quite sceptical to froome. he didn't have to win the 2015 due to limited skills. later on, he did win, however many remained unimpressed, saying 'heck, no, have a look at his mediocre 3rd week recovery. next year, bertie will be fresh and bit, it'll be a completely different story'. even froome finishing 2nd in the 2016 vuelta was considered as him kinda having noticeably inferior recovery compared to quintana. skepticism always prevails when it comes to this guy. a 80km solo escape is quickly getting something elementary too, because it's so easy when you have such great legs...

let's see how it'll pan out this time.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Dont question the geniuses of Christian Prudhomme, please.

Prudhomme would shoot a gun at the stars and call it progress in space travel

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Dont question the geniuses of Christian Prudhomme, please.

Prudhomme would shoot a gun at the stars and call it progress in space travel

Lmao.

To be fair they have done a decent job with the mountain stages this year, especially the Alps. Cant remember 3 that hard, consecutive days in TdF tbh.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

Dont question the geniuses of Christian Prudhomme, please.

Prudhomme would shoot a gun at the stars and call it progress in space travel

Lmao.

To be fair they have done a decent job with the mountain stages this year, especially the Alps. Cant remember 3 that hard, consecutive days in TdF tbh.

Completely agree

I further think the first 9 days, are a very good start to the tour.

If the weather is windy/rainy, those 9 days can create havoc in the GC.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Really I don’t understand how Froome can be the favorite. I don’t say that out of my dislike for him. I’m trying to think objectively. This is NOT like a Tour Vuelta double. It’s so much harder. I don’t think he’ll manage it.

it's quite understandable. he is the only rider who could pull off double of two consecutive grand tours, his skillset is way wider than quintana's, after all there are Sky A team at hand, as well as individual and team time trials which are supposed to seal about 2'-2'30'' into his pocket. i'm not suggesting he will win or something, but what froome is capable of gives different racing options, while quintana should per se fly all over the mountains to win the tour.

to be honest, I don't see much of a difference between now and the pre-2011 tour situation when bertie was regarded as #1 favorite. both giri were conquered relatively easily, as it could seem visually, and there is some chance of strongest rider being able to reach even higher peak in the tour. clearly, it's far from certain, but there is just a chance. possibly it does apply to froome even to a bigger extent, because he can measure his effort and ride in an energy-saving mode like no one else does. otoh, if he cracks at penultimate climb of first multimountain stage, I won't be much surprised either.

I think it’s quite understandable to put him on EQUAL grounds with a couple other riders. He’s definitely A favorite. Thats as generous as I can be.

well, you was always being quite sceptical to froome. he didn't have to win the 2015 due to limited skills. later on, he did win, however many remained unimpressed, saying 'heck, no, have a look at his mediocre 3rd week recovery. next year, bertie will be fresh and bit, it'll be a completely different story'. even froome finishing 2nd in the 2016 vuelta was considered as him kinda having noticeably inferior recovery compared to quintana. skepticism always prevails when it comes to this guy. a 80km solo escape is quickly getting something elementary too, because it's so easy when you have such great legs...

let's see how it'll pan out this time.

I can’t stand him, but his Giro solo ride was amazing.

 

[saunaking]

Who decided to put the Alps & Pyrenees in the middle of the week?

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Who decided to put the Alps & Pyrenees in the middle of the week?

I think it's great

It's a brutal start to the alps

First stage 9, which is like 85 % Paris-Roubaix, and the 9th race day in a row (only 2 of them being "easy" for GC riders) - leaving everyone depleted

Then a long transport from the north of France to the alps.

Then a rest day (and we all know, a lot of riders struggle the first day after a rest day)

Then the mountains start (and we all know, some riders suffer the first day on big climbs), with 3 huge stages in the alps in a row.

Add to that, that many captains know, it is the first 9 days (obviously excluding the TTT) they can hurt Sky, Movistar and BMC, which means the pressure will be on most days, leading up the the explosive stages in the alps.

 

[roundabout]

He asked why there is not a single mountain stage on a weekend this year. It doesn't matter how 'explosive' Alps will be if one has to work.