Pre Tour de France-thread

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Re:

Red Rick said:
Dumoulin starts the Tour

The Vuelta starts to look like a wasteland.
Isn't it always pretty much? Some people crashes, some people unexpectedly gets better in the Vuelta than in the Tour or whatever, it usually ends up as a race on a very high level. But maybe more so this year than previous years, I will agree with that. The Giro-Tour doubles doesn't help on that.

I have a feeling that Movistar absolutely will dominate that race.
 
Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Red Rick said:
Dumoulin starts the Tour

The Vuelta starts to look like a wasteland.
Isn't it always pretty much? Some people crashes, some people unexpectedly gets better in the Vuelta than in the Tour or whatever, it usually ends up as a race on a very high level. But maybe more so this year than previous years, I will agree with that. The Giro-Tour doubles doesn't help on that.

I have a feeling that Movistar absolutely will dominate that race.
The Vuelta has had very good fields in the last few years and in some cases easily the strongest field of the year, partially because of many of the stronger GT riders doubling up and because nobody in their right mind attempted Giro/Tour.

Now, from one year to the next, Contador retired, Froome goes Giro/Tour, Nibali goes as Worlds prep, Dumoulin goes Giro/Tour, even the fresh blood in Bernal looks like he'll be a Froome slave in the Tour rather than getting his own shot.
 
Sure, right now it looks like a weak Vuelta, but its hard to say anything until after the Tour depending on lots of stuff.

We could see a surprise winner, but the Movistar-riders haven't ridden much and are probably all going for Tour + Vuelta. Apart from that, its hard to see so many contender as of now. Bernal could realistically have won, I think.
 
Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Sure, right now it looks like a weak Vuelta, but its hard to say anything until after the Tour depending on lots of stuff.

We could see a surprise winner, but the Movistar-riders haven't ridden much and are probably all going for Tour + Vuelta. Apart from that, its hard to see so many contender as of now. Bernal could realistically have won, I think.
If he can be good for 3 weeks already, then sure. Right now it seems to me it would be great for Yates to go for it. 3rd week breakdown shouldn't be nearly as much of a problem in this Vuelta than in this Giro. But then there's the Worlds.
 
Re: Re:

LaFlorecita said:
Netserk said:
LaFlorecita said:
Much ado about nothing - my guess is this new "starting order" won't change anything. Only thing I am wondering is if they'll cut the neutralized start - if not, the effect will be even smaller.
No neutral start that day.
That makes sense - still, won't matter all that much, domestiques will just have to spend a tiny bit more energy to get to their team leader.

All depends what gaps they are starting with, between (especially) the first 3 groups.

If 10-20 seconds - sure
If 1 minute - they will never see the leaders again

The most interesting part to me, about this new way of starting, is that teams with a lieutenant hovering around 20th on the first 16 stages, will want them to ride to stay within the 20, because of stage 17.

Without the special stage 17, we would just see them drop off completely, as nobody really cares if they are 18th or 25th overall.

This will create a bunch of "Nieves" we have not seen before, riding to preserve position, rather than to save strength.
 
Dec 31, 2017
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Re:

Valv.Piti said:
Sure, right now it looks like a weak Vuelta, but its hard to say anything until after the Tour depending on lots of stuff.

We could see a surprise winner, but the Movistar-riders haven't ridden much and are probably all going for Tour + Vuelta. Apart from that, its hard to see so many contender as of now. Bernal could realistically have won, I think.

I really dont get this Bernal hype. I know he is a extreme talented guy, but look at his results and tell me how can this show anything that makes you think he can perform over 3 weeks and win the GC in the Vuelta. In catalunya the guy was going really great but was second to a guy who I hardly doubt can be a GT podium contender anymore. In Romandie he was beaten by Roglic, which never did a top 10 in a GC and in California the only guy he beat that is a top 10 GT GC contender was Yates coming from an injury.
I´m not downsizing is achievements, I just dont get how a guy who never raced a GT, and never shown any capability whatsoever to hold a shape for three weeks be considered an hevy favourite for the Vuelta. I still think he can make top 5 or so but from top 5 to win it goes a big distance.
 
Re: Re:

drebelo said:
Valv.Piti said:
Sure, right now it looks like a weak Vuelta, but its hard to say anything until after the Tour depending on lots of stuff.

We could see a surprise winner, but the Movistar-riders haven't ridden much and are probably all going for Tour + Vuelta. Apart from that, its hard to see so many contender as of now. Bernal could realistically have won, I think.

I really dont get this Bernal hype. I know he is a extreme talented guy, but look at his results and tell me how can this show anything that makes you think he can perform over 3 weeks and win the GC in the Vuelta. In catalunya the guy was going really great but was second to a guy who I hardly doubt can be a GT podium contender anymore. In Romandie he was beaten by Roglic, which never did a top 10 in a GC and in California the only guy he beat that is a top 10 GT GC contender was Yates coming from an injury.
I´m not downsizing is achievements, I just dont get how a guy who never raced a GT, and never shown any capability whatsoever to hold a shape for three weeks be considered an hevy favourite for the Vuelta. I still think he can make top 5 or so but from top 5 to win it goes a big distance.

And most of all shouldn't race a GT with GC in mind at that age imho.
That's exactly how you burn young riders...
 
Re: Re:

Climbing said:
drebelo said:
Valv.Piti said:
Sure, right now it looks like a weak Vuelta, but its hard to say anything until after the Tour depending on lots of stuff.

We could see a surprise winner, but the Movistar-riders haven't ridden much and are probably all going for Tour + Vuelta. Apart from that, its hard to see so many contender as of now. Bernal could realistically have won, I think.

I really dont get this Bernal hype. I know he is a extreme talented guy, but look at his results and tell me how can this show anything that makes you think he can perform over 3 weeks and win the GC in the Vuelta. In catalunya the guy was going really great but was second to a guy who I hardly doubt can be a GT podium contender anymore. In Romandie he was beaten by Roglic, which never did a top 10 in a GC and in California the only guy he beat that is a top 10 GT GC contender was Yates coming from an injury.
I´m not downsizing is achievements, I just dont get how a guy who never raced a GT, and never shown any capability whatsoever to hold a shape for three weeks be considered an hevy favourite for the Vuelta. I still think he can make top 5 or so but from top 5 to win it goes a big distance.

And most of all shouldn't race a GT with GC in mind at that age imho.
That's exactly how you burn young riders...
Honestly, I'd just go for it and see how it goes. I'd basically tell him to test out if he can fight for the win, and go for it if he can, and if he can't, the hell with it and go for stages.
 
Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?

No odds currently being offered for Froome
 
The Vuelta field will be strong - Some of the Giro protagonists will be riding, along with riders backing up from the TDF which will include the three amigos from Movistar, Porte, Nibali and Uran - The field will be strong enough - The most interesting rider in the TDF will be Quintana whose had a quiet start to the season - I have no idea how he will perform in this race.
 
Re: Re:

Avoriaz said:
Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?

No odds currently being offered for Froome

6/4, William Hill, "If Chris Froome will not start TDF 2018 the bet will be voided."
 
Re: Re:

Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?
Where is Roglic? There are some riders that are not proven GC and are there. So should Roglic.
 
Re: Re:

Escarabajo said:
Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?
Where is Roglic? There are some riders that are not proven GC and are there. So should Roglic.

Time to go all in on Nibali?
 
Re: Re:

Escarabajo said:
Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?
Where is Roglic? There are some riders that are not proven GC and are there. So should Roglic.
Roglic: 20/1
 
Re: Re:

Bot. Sky_Bot said:
Escarabajo said:
Gigs_98 said:
Avoriaz said:
Latest odds from Bet365 (without Froome):

1. Porte 9/4
2. Quintana 7/2
3. Landa 11/2
4. Dumoulin 11/2
5. Nibali 13/2
6. Bernal 14/1
7. Bardet 14/1
8. Valverde 16/1
9. Thomas 16/1
10. Uran 18/1

Surprised that Porte would come out on top, but could be influence of an English language site maybe.

Fuglsang is 25/1, Mollema 40/1. Soler 200/1, kelderman 80/1, Gaudu and Meintjes 600/1...
Lol at Dumoulin having better odds than Nibali. What are froome's current odds btw?
Where is Roglic? There are some riders that are not proven GC and are there. So should Roglic.
Roglic: 20/1

Reasonable price for Roglic probably should be double that.
 
Movistar's 3 amigos will be going from the Tour to the Vuelta although most likely a slight shuffling of positions where Valverde will be the first leader as he's chasing history there. He, Landa as most likely a nice percentage of the Movistar team will also be using la Vuelta to get ready for the Worlds. Bahrain will most likely also swap leaders from Nibali at the Tour to one or both of the Izagirre brothers at la Vuelta.