Pre Tour de France-thread

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Movistar's 3 amigos will be going from the Tour to the Vuelta although most likely a slight shuffling of positions where Valverde will be the first leader as he's chasing history there.

What history?

He's one short of tying the all-time podium record. He has 6, the record is 7. He's also one short of tying the number of Green jersey's won at the end of the race. He has 3 the record is 4.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Why are we talking about the Vuelta, in the TdF thread?

Because a mod complained that one rider's participation in the Tour would ruin the whole Vuelta.

...and that wasn't me .

And I'll reiterate that UCI has to decide and if the decision is that Froome can race, good for him. Otherwise, I disagree that he's allowed to race. I also understand that no-one cares what I think. But it's my humble opinion.

And I reiterate: Porte may break the curse, but until he does, I would not bet a penny on his chances. Last year (stupid me), I did. Seeing his odds means that many believe in miracles. His skill set is impressive. But I question his mental: when the first glitch takes place, how will Porte react? Self-fulfilling prophecy and meltdown? What we don't know: his ability to focus, concentrate, not have a lapse of brain-matter, like fall or take the wrong wheel...and then what? I have yet to see Porte make a meaningful attack in a GT. Don Quifroome's windmill on Finestre . Porte won't do that. 9/4? And I thought I was a fanboy .

Bardet's odds are way too low. Landa's are about right: of the "three amigos", my head says Valverde, my guts say Quintana, my heart says Landa. Listening to your heart is how you lose money gambling. But the Basque is my bet for "best of Movistar", and the Don will help if he gets Mikel to help at la Vuelta.

And here we are...La Vuelta...

 

[Robert5091]

Sky seem to target 2, 3 stages in a GT when the whole team goes 100%. Froome likes the "iconic climbs" so stage 12 up the Alpe D'Huez would be one, add another mountain stage and the TTT of course. Stage 9 will be damage limitations.

 

[Põhja Konn]

Which kind of weather we get during the first week, will determine a lot about how this Tour is going to pan out. Two elite climbers, Quintana and Porte, have their entire season solely built around the Tour, same to a lesser extent applies for Landa. In case of bad weather, that first week could end their challenge before it even started.

Porte of course have an advantage of having a top end TTT squad around him, but we saw what happened to him in the first two stages of last years Paris-Nice. Movistar duo should be more durable in tough conditions, but are still certainly vulnerable and have a weaker team around them for this kind of racing.

Froome is kind of a wildcard. If he is allowed to start, the one thing that can be ruled out is him not being competitive. Not sure how much, if anything at all, he will pay for winning the Giro in a manner that was anything but easy and straightforward.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Why are we talking about the Vuelta, in the TdF thread?

Because a mod complained that one rider's participation in the Tour would ruin the whole Vuelta.

...and that wasn't me .

And I'll reiterate that UCI has to decide and if the decision is that Froome can race, good for him. Otherwise, I disagree that he's allowed to race. I also understand that no-one cares what I think. But it's my humble opinion.

And I reiterate: Porte may break the curse, but until he does, I would not bet a penny on his chances. Last year (stupid me), I did. Seeing his odds means that many believe in miracles. His skill set is impressive. But I question his mental: when the first glitch takes place, how will Porte react? Self-fulfilling prophecy and meltdown? What we don't know: his ability to focus, concentrate, not have a lapse of brain-matter, like fall or take the wrong wheel...and then what? I have yet to see Porte make a meaningful attack in a GT. Don Quifroome's windmill on Finestre . Porte won't do that. 9/4? And I thought I was a fanboy .

Bardet's odds are way too low. Landa's are about right: of the "three amigos", my head says Valverde, my guts say Quintana, my heart says Landa. Listening to your heart is how you lose money gambling. But the Basque is my bet for "best of Movistar", and the Don will help if he gets Mikel to help at la Vuelta.

And here we are...La Vuelta...

Plus at the Ardennes Landa proved to Valverde that his word is good and he will work for Valverde. Of course at the Ardennes it was in hopes of the favor being returned at the Tour. However, I agree that Valverde may very well end up choosing to help Landa knowing Landa will keep his word and work for him at the Vuelta.

 

[Poursuivant]

I think if you offered Porte a podium right now he would take it.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re:

I think if you offered Porte a podium right now he would take it.

Probably, but he shouldn’t. Getting a podium would mean that he got his form right and then went through the three weeks without falling off, getting sick or having a catastrophic day. What makes people doubt him isn’t his best level, it’s his ability to manage all of the above. In the unlikely event that he manages to produce “Good Richie” every day of the Tour he’d have a perhaps once in a lifetime shot at winning and he should no way trade that chance for a good losing spot.

 

[deValtos]

Re: Re:

Probably, but he shouldn’t. Getting a podium would mean that he got his form right and then went through the three weeks without falling off, getting sick or having a catastrophic day. What makes people doubt him isn’t his best level, it’s his ability to manage all of the above. In the unlikely event that he manages to produce “Good Richie” every day of the Tour he’d have a perhaps once in a lifetime shot at winning and he should no way trade that chance for a good losing spot.

It's a tricky one as he's in the unique position of having never podiumed in a GT for a rider of his talents. I don't recall a rider as old and strong as him with as poor GT results almost ever.

The allure of the podium will be immense and I can't blame him if he doesn't go full finestre if he's sat in 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

I think if you offered Porte a podium right now he would take it.

Probably, but he shouldn’t. Getting a podium would mean that he got his form right and then went through the three weeks without falling off, getting sick or having a catastrophic day. What makes people doubt him isn’t his best level, it’s his ability to manage all of the above. In the unlikely event that he manages to produce “Good Richie” every day of the Tour he’d have a perhaps once in a lifetime shot at winning and he should no way trade that chance for a good losing spot.

True. The best Ritchie can win a GT, absolutely. What are the odds? Not 9/4...but I wish him to get something, and yes, I believe that he would sign for a podium. Good for morale and something to build on.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

I agree that Valverde may very well end up choosing to help Landa knowing Landa will keep his word and work for him at the Vuelta.

I agree. But in this equation, when the two make up, the best friend Nairo holds the candle .

If Quintana doesn't assert himself quickly as the Man, his TdF is doomed IMO.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

I agree that Valverde may very well end up choosing to help Landa knowing Landa will keep his word and work for him at the Vuelta.

I agree. But in this equation, when the two make up, the best friend Nairo holds the candle .

If Quintana doesn't assert himself quickly as the Man, his TdF is doomed IMO.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens. At this point this team with esp Landa and Quintana are very much a subplot to the Tour.

I agree. If he doesn't I think not only is his TdF doomed, but his leadership on the team is pretty much done. With not just Landa there, but also Soler and Carapaz looking like they are getting closer to being ready to take on a leadership role within the team.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I think if you offered Porte a podium right now he would take it.

Probably, but he shouldn’t. Getting a podium would mean that he got his form right and then went through the three weeks without falling off, getting sick or having a catastrophic day. What makes people doubt him isn’t his best level, it’s his ability to manage all of the above. In the unlikely event that he manages to produce “Good Richie” every day of the Tour he’d have a perhaps once in a lifetime shot at winning and he should no way trade that chance for a good losing spot.

True. The best Ritchie can win a GT, absolutely. What are the odds? Not 9/4...but I wish him to get something, and yes, I believe that he would sign for a podium. Good for morale and something to build on.

Yes ridiculous odds for Porte but there are also other factors. Froome backing up, Quintana not the rider he was, Nibali the same, although a win to either would not surprise if they can find their best form. Thomas in the same boat as Porte, Valverde's best GT days are over. Landa and Porte are probably the two potential jokers........potential. Bardet is consistent in GTs but he is limited as is Uran. Zakarin probably not, same with Yates and Mollema. It's an odd sort of race with no standout favorites like the Giro had which some people might think gives Porte more of a chance plus there is the TTT which is usually good for BMC. I guess if Cadel Evans can win at 38-1 Porte can also win at ridiculous odds but Cadel had already proven himself results wise, Porte is leaving it late to do that if it happens at all. I really thought last year was an opportunity missed for Porte. Whether he's in the same shape this year and can stay out of trouble, time will tell. But no one will be more psyched than Quintana and Porte this year you would think, both have a lot to prove and they are meeting Froome very favorably. If not now when ? Nibali too, probably has his last realistic shot at the Tour.

 

[Robert5091]

LRP is a talented rider but he's like watching a kid with a box of matches - you know soon there'll be a disaster - a puncture, a crash, an illness, something. It's like the man sold his soul at Sky and is in some Sisyphus like purgatory.

Froome did not win a stage at last years TdF but won the overall - Uran wheelsucked Froome for 3 weeks, did a good ITT and came second. Maybe there's something there.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Nobody know what gaps people are starting with on stage 17?

 

[Netserk]

Why any gaps? Pulled out of your arse, or have you seen any credible suggestions that there will be any kinds of gaps between the groups from the start?

As far as I can tell, the rules don't mention gaps one bit. But please prove me wrong and cite any mention of it.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

Why any gaps? Pulled out of your ****, or have you seen any credible suggestions that there will be any kinds of gaps between the groups from the start?

As far as I can tell, the rules don't mention gaps one bit. But please prove me wrong and cite any mention of it.

If there are no gaps, there are no groups, genius.........

 

[Climbing]

There is absolutely no justification for gaps, in fact I don't see why there would be gaps, nor mention of it.
Probably it will be just like a MTB XCO starting grid.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re:

There is absolutely no justification for gaps, in fact I don't see why there would be gaps, nor mention of it.
Probably it will be just like a MTB XCO starting grid.

That would be utterly pointless in a road race, the next groups would close the gaps in seconds.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Why any gaps? Pulled out of your ****, or have you seen any credible suggestions that there will be any kinds of gaps between the groups from the start?

As far as I can tell, the rules don't mention gaps one bit. But please prove me wrong and cite any mention of it.

If there are no gaps, there are no groups, genius.........

There won't be gaps. The "groups" are just how the riders will be placed before the start. Hence the reference to CX.
This has been pointed out a couple of times already.

edit: and yes it's a pointless gimmick

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

There is absolutely no justification for gaps, in fact I don't see why there would be gaps, nor mention of it.
Probably it will be just like a MTB XCO starting grid.

That would be utterly pointless in a road race, the next groups would close the gaps in seconds.

Correct. It is pointless in road racing. It makes for good publicity I guess.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Re: Re:

I think if you offered Porte a podium right now he would take it.

Probably, but he shouldn’t. Getting a podium would mean that he got his form right and then went through the three weeks without falling off, getting sick or having a catastrophic day. What makes people doubt him isn’t his best level, it’s his ability to manage all of the above. In the unlikely event that he manages to produce “Good Richie” every day of the Tour he’d have a perhaps once in a lifetime shot at winning and he should no way trade that chance for a good losing spot.

True. The best Ritchie can win a GT, absolutely. What are the odds? Not 9/4...but I wish him to get something, and yes, I believe that he would sign for a podium. Good for morale and something to build on.

9/4 is not the simple odds on him to win: those are odds for win or come second to Froome.

 

[Lequack]

Why don't they make the sprint stages be like 60km instead, that'd make for a far more watchable race.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Why any gaps? Pulled out of your ****, or have you seen any credible suggestions that there will be any kinds of gaps between the groups from the start?

As far as I can tell, the rules don't mention gaps one bit. But please prove me wrong and cite any mention of it.

If there are no gaps, there are no groups, genius.........

There won't be gaps. The "groups" are just how the riders will be placed before the start. Hence the reference to CX.
This has been pointed out a couple of times already.

edit: and yes it's a pointless gimmick

yep, it's only a marathon type of start with corals, like in Boston: tea party? If so, the Brits are at an advantage I guess...

 

[Tonton]

Re:

LRP is a talented rider but he's like watching a kid with a box of matches - you know soon there'll be a disaster - a puncture, a crash, an illness,

...sad, but I agree...like Jean Alesi in F1 years ago. Super-talented but a mix of bad luck, questionable judgement or lapses of focus, wreck, heart-break. Something. I would not bet a dollar on him. And he's aware, not getting any younger, being desperate i's not a recipe for success vs. calm, collected, confident.

I loved Alesi, some here like LRP. I wish the guy good...luck. He's a better rider than some who have podium-ed in the past. His years as a dom with Sky were wasted IMO. And now time is running out.

 

[Robert5091]

SDB gives away Sky's tactic for stage 12 at TdF

https://www.bbc.com/sport/cycling/44372328

For each hairpin you decelerate into each one and have to accelerate out of it. The first four or five guys in the line are OK. When you go to 11, 12, 13, you're having to sprint out of every one. You get natural gaps. You know that if you take it on at the front, someone will pay the price at the back.