Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Tinkoff saxo TTT team is looking pretty solid unless they decide to bring Jesus.
Valgren, Sagan, Mick, Roman, Berto and Majka should do the final climb. That's 6 guys and they could always decide to let Kiser suck wheels the entire TTT.
It's only ~1.5km remember.

I wouldn't be confident in Sagan and Rogers doing so well on that final climb if they have already put in big efforts on the flat. Especially Sagan, who will have been competing hard in pretty much every one of the first 8 stages. We've seen him completely blow up a few times this year already.

Doesnt matter if their not there at the final in this TTT you wont see teams coming in to the finish with all guys cause in this particular TTT with the climb at the end it doesnt make sense to do. Most teams will come in with 5-6 guys on this particual TTT to maximum their time what so if ppl get dropped the last 1.5K uphill its not like they will loose time on it

Well obviously. But the point is that Tinkoff already have a couple of riders who will struggle on the climb - Bodnar and Bennati. That means they will either have to carry riders like Kiserlovski and Majka through the course, or rely on Rogers and Sagan to climb well and come in the top 5. If they lose a rider in the first week or someone is having a bad day, then they have very little cushion. Even more so if Kreuziger isn't there.

Sky and Movistar have more options, because nearly all of their guys can climb well.

I agree sky has more options uphill but if you think tinkov will use up both sagan and rogers before the last climb i disagree. And tho i think too sky has more options uphill im sure tinkov is stronger on the flats and i also think you make to much of this final climb, the final climb is 1.5K a guy like sagan and rogers are never dropping there and almost the entire tinkov team are good at the flats minus majka and kiselovski (that more than can be said of sky on the flats) so ppl wont get used up like you speculate

I just think tactically there is a lot more that can go wrong with Tinkoff. They can try to use up Bodnar and Bennati on the flats, but then what if one of the climbers is having a bad day? You could easily lose 20 seconds waiting in the last few kilometres. How much should you use Sagan and Rogers on the flat - and if you use them too little then you might not put in the best time possible.

Sky, on the other hand, can just use everybody on the flat - surely the most efficient way to TTT - and then tell everyone to go all out up the hill, knowing that they have at least five or six solid climbers who won't lose much time.

 

[blackmamba]

Dude they have guys like kreuziger, AC, valgren, rogers, SAGAN, bodnar, Benati ALL which are exceptional TTT on the flats its no way they will use up rogers and sagan for a 1.5K climb. Saying Sagan will struggle there is the same as saying froome will struggle there it simply doesnt make sense and for rogers the parcour is made for him too in fact all contador, rogers, kreuziger, SAGAN, valgren even MAJKA ( LOOk romandie TT which was simular to this TTT up and down he beat froome,uran and amadore for example. All those 6 saxo riders the course fits PERFECT then add brilliant TTT riders such as bodnar and bennati in there I cant see your logic

And the tactically thing you mention your doing something wrong if all your focusing is on the final 1.5K climb

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Dude they have guys like kreuziger, AC, valgren, rogers, SAGAN, bodnar, Benati ALL which are exceptional TTT on the flats its no way they will use up rogers and sagan for a 1.5K climb. Saying Sagan will struggle there is the same as saying froome will struggle there it simply doesnt make sense and for rogers the parcour is made for him too in fact all contador, rogers, kreuziger, SAGAN, valgren even MAJKA ( LOOk romandie TT which was simular to this TTT up and down he beat froome,uran and amadore for example. All those 6 saxo riders the course fits PERFECT then add brilliant TTT riders such as bodnar and bennati in there I cant see your logic

Well, we will see. I think their riders are more flaky than their rivals; they can be good on their day, but there are not many I would be 100% confident in putting in a great performance.

Also, I'm not sure where this idea has come from that Sagan is an amazing TTT rider. He's never won a TTT - hasn't come anywhere close in any of a proper length - and he has never finished top 10 in a ITT over 10km.

He's basically a very good prologue rider (like a lot of sprinters), which translates well into short TTT's; but I don't see the evidence that he's a world class rider to have for longer TTTs.

 

[Jagartrott]

Kreuziger exceptional TTT on the flat? Que?

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Kreuziger exceptional TTT on the flat? Que?

Valgren as well? What has he ever done on a flat time trial - individual or in a team?

I think there are a lot of statements being made here, which have very little to back them up.

 

[Randy rex]

What i hope:

1.Contador
2.Pinot
3.Quintana
4.Rolland
5.Nibali

What I think it will be:

1.Froome
2.Quintana
3.Nibali
4.Contador
5.Majka

And I think Taaramae could surprise a lot of people this year if Astana confirm that all their riders are back at their best level ever.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Kreuziger exceptional TTT on the flat? Que?

Valgren as well? What has he ever done on a flat time trial - individual or in a team?

I think there are a lot of statements being made here, which have very little to back them up.

Kreuziger was the strongest of the entire team in the 2013 TDF TTT. An absolute monster, according to people on the spot.
Valgren isn't a super TTer, but he is quite good especially in shortish TTs. And usually good sprinters/flat powerhouses are good TTTers and good in short ITTs anyway. See, in T-S, for example Juul Jensen, Tosatto, Bennati, Sagan. And Valgren.
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=26524

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Kreuziger exceptional TTT on the flat? Que?

Valgren as well? What has he ever done on a flat time trial - individual or in a team?

I think there are a lot of statements being made here, which have very little to back them up.

Kreuziger was the strongest of the entire team in the 2013 TDF TTT. An absolute monster, according to people on the spot.
Valgren isn't a super TTer, but he is quite good especially in shortish TTs. And usually good sprinters/flat powerhouses are good TTTers and good in short ITTs anyway. See, in T-S, for example Juul Jensen, Tosatto, Bennati, Sagan. And Valgren.
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=26524

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

 

[blackmamba]

lol kreuziger better than almost every sky riders besides froome and maby stannard on the flats and almost everyone uphill too what world have you lived in? Have you even watched some of the last TT over the last 5 years?? And the fact that majka is not even top 5 on the tt team of tinkov and considering he beat the nr 1 on skys team just 1 month ago on a simular course your logic fails you hard. Tinkov will crush sky on the ttt easypeasy barring and crashes etc on the earlier stages its absolutely no doubt about that. Sky teams is shockingly weak and may loose up to 1min (tho i assume something more around 30-40sec) heck 1 month ago majka which is considered the 7 worst guy on this team in the ttt even beat froome your logic really fails you if you think sky can compete on the ttt with saxo.

I guess the sky boys are in for yet another surprise (not long ago most of em thought porte was a serious contender for a GT (hahah the biggest joke of the yearr) a guy who is 30 years old and just once ONCE has been top 10 in a GT and that was only cause he went in a breakaway which went in

 

[DFA123]

uh oh... he's gone full ***.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Tonton, do you think Movistar is sending 9 pure climbers to the Tour?

Have you seen their TT resume for the riders that are going to the Tour?

Amongst the GC team, don't see Movistar as good as Sky, Saxo-Tinkov, or even Astana. Obviously, some here disagree. Resume? Irrelevant IMO: no team will be at 100% after a grueling week. I think the three other teams I mentioned have more depth. I could be wrong. We shall see.

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

Kreuziger exceptional TTT on the flat? Que?

Valgren as well? What has he ever done on a flat time trial - individual or in a team?

I think there are a lot of statements being made here, which have very little to back them up.

Kreuziger was the strongest of the entire team in the 2013 TDF TTT. An absolute monster, according to people on the spot.
Valgren isn't a super TTer, but he is quite good especially in shortish TTs. And usually good sprinters/flat powerhouses are good TTTers and good in short ITTs anyway. See, in T-S, for example Juul Jensen, Tosatto, Bennati, Sagan. And Valgren.
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=26524

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

ONly contador? did you watch the hilly TT in romandie majka even beat your top dog guy there and hes nr 7 on this saxo team in terms of the hilly TTT you simply make no sense if you think the likes ROWE, poels, kennaugh are at the same lvl

 

[blackmamba]

BOSWELL Ian
DEEGNAN Philip
FROOME Christopher
KENNAUGH Peter
POELS Wouter
ROCHE Nicolas
ROWE Luke
STANNARD
Thomas
VS

Contador
Sagan
MAjka
Kiser
Bennati
Valgren
Rogers
Bodnar
Kreuziger

Contador vs Boswell = Contador
Sagan vs Deegnan = Sagan
Froome vs majka = Even tho majka just beat him i expect a better froome ofc so easy Froome!
Kennaugh vs Kiserlovski = Kennaugh
Bennati vs Poels = Bennati
Roche vs Valgren = Roche
Rowe vs Rogers = Rogers
Stannard vs Bodnar = Bodnar
Thomas vs Kreuziger = I would say even

easypeasy

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

LOL
Just wait...........

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Tonton, do you think Movistar is sending 9 pure climbers to the Tour?

Have you seen their TT resume for the riders that are going to the Tour?

Amongst the GC team, don't see Movistar as good as Sky, Saxo-Tinkov, or even Astana. Obviously, some here disagree. Resume? Irrelevant IMO: no team will be at 100% after a grueling week. I think the three other teams I mentioned have more depth. I could be wrong. We shall see.

Even without any big name time triallists, Movistar nearly always put in a very good TT; they are a fantastically well oiled machine. If Malori, Castroviejo, Dowsett and Valverde are all there and in reasonable shape, they will be challenging for the win in my opinion.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

lol kreuziger better than almost every sky riders besides froome and maby stannard on the flats and almost everyone uphill too what world have you lived in? Have you even watched some of the last TT over the last 5 years??

Have you?
Kreuziger this year:
Giro: 43rd
Tirreno: TT 47th and prologue 45th

2014:
Suisse: TT 19th, prologue 15th
Pais Vasco: TT 21st
Tirreno: TT 26th

Not so very impressive. At least not good enough to be counted among the few top riders, as you're claiming. Masses of riders are better than him on the flat.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

LOL
Just wait...........

I'd love to see it

I would be delighted to see Movistar and Tinkoff take time on Sky and Astana in an event that the latter two will have been targetting. Just can't see it though unfortunately.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

LOL
Just wait...........

I'd love to see it

I would be delighted to see Movistar and Tinkoff take time on Sky and Astana in an event that the latter two will have been targetting. Just can't see it though unfortunately.

Tinkoff-Saxo have Rogers, Bodnar, Sagan, Contador, Kreuziger, Bennati, Valgren. This is a super TTT line up. In fact all these riders have multiple top 10s in ITTs. They will be top 5 (just like Berto will be top 5 in the opening ITT)
Those hills you are talking about are 2.5/3% inclines. Only the final hill is a potential issue but then again Tinkoff-Saxo also have at least 5 riders who can tackle this hill (it is not Alpe d'Huez it's 1.5km @ 6%)

 

[damian13ster]

Re:

BOSWELL Ian
DEEGNAN Philip
FROOME Christopher
KENNAUGH Peter
POELS Wouter
ROCHE Nicolas
ROWE Luke
STANNARD
Thomas
VS

Contador
Sagan
MAjka
Kiser
Bennati
Valgren
Rogers
Bodnar
Kreuziger

Contador vs Boswell = Contador
Sagan vs Deegnan = Sagan
Froome vs majka = Even tho majka just beat him i expect a better froome ofc so easy Froome!
Kennaugh vs Kiserlovski = Kennaugh
Bennati vs Poels = Bennati
Roche vs Valgren = Roche
Rowe vs Rogers = Rogers
Stannard vs Bodnar = Bodnar
Thomas vs Kreuziger = I would say even

easypeasy

Froome vs Contador- Froome
Porte vs Sagan - Porte
Thomas vs Rogers- Thomas
Deignan vs Majka - Majka
Roche vs Valgren - close, but probably Nico
Bennati vs Rowe - ????
Stannard vs Bodnar - Bodnar
Kennaugh vs Kreuziger (if he rides) - ????
Rowe vs Kiserlovski - Rowe

Don't think that Poels will ride, think it will be Porte instead.
Honestly I don't see Tinkoff being better than Sky in this TTT but its really hard to predict since its stage 9.
Don't expect the gap to be bigger than 20s though
Movistar might be a big loser in this TTT but gaps won't be significant either

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

(just like Berto will be top 5 in the opening ITT)

That sounds crazy.
If he pulls it off, power to you. But seriously, at least 30 people will be targeting that prologue, among which many specialists. Why would he do that prologue full (this involves taking risks in corners)? He's got much more to lose than to gain. So no, I definitely do not think he'll top-5 there.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

OK, now we're getting somewhere. So Tinkoff have several fairly good riders, who should do OK because they are sprinters (Sagan), or that were good a few years ago (Kreuziger / Rogers), or that should be OK on the flatter sections, even though there aren't many (Bodnar/Bennati), or who have once had a fairly good result in Denmark,

For me, though Contador is their only top notch TT for a hilly longer TTT, and their only sure thing to perform well on this course. Contrast that with Sky, Movistar or Astana, and they have 3-4 top quality riders who you know are 99% sure to put in a great performance.

LOL
Just wait...........

I'd love to see it

I would be delighted to see Movistar and Tinkoff take time on Sky and Astana in an event that the latter two will have been targetting. Just can't see it though unfortunately.

Tinkoff-Saxo have Rogers, Bodnar, Sagan, Contador, Kreuziger, Bennati, Valgren. This is a super TTT line up. In fact all these riders have multiple top 10s in ITTs. They will be top 5 (just like Berto will be top 5 in the opening ITT)
Those hills you are talking about are 2.5/3% inclines. Only the final hill is a potential issue but then again Tinkoff-Saxo also have at least 5 riders who can tackle this hill (it is not Alpe d'Huez it's 1.5km @ 6%)

I don't think it looks that great personally. It looks flaky. Question marks over most of the riders there regarding form/ability on a rolling course.

The last hill is a big issue. Obviously it's not Alpe d'Huez, but it's a climb that will probably take about 4 minutes going all out on a time-trial bike. That's enough to shed Bodnar and Bennati, and then you're relying on Rodgers and Sagan also having a good day. Replace Kreuziger with Paulinho and throw in the possibility of at least one rider crashing out in the first week, and they look very vulnerable.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I don't think it looks that great personally. It looks flaky. Question marks over most of the riders there regarding form/ability on a rolling course.

The last hill is a big issue. Obviously it's not Alpe d'Huez, but it's a climb that will probably take about 4 minutes going all out on a time-trial bike. That's enough to shed Bodnar and Bennati, and then you're relying on Rodgers and Sagan also having a good day. Replace Kreuziger with Paulinho and throw in the possibility of at least one rider crashing out in the first week, and they look very vulnerable.

So what was your opinion about the Giro team??

Kreuziger, Contador, Rogers, Basso, Boaro, Juul Jensen, Tosatto, Rovny, Paulinho.

vs

Kreuziger, Contador, Rogers, Bennati, Bodnar, Sagan, Valgren, Majka, Kiserlovski

Kreuziger = Kreuziger
Contador = Contador
Rogers = Rogers
Bennati > Tosatto
Bodnar > Boaro
Sagan > Juul Jensen
Valgren > Paulinho
Majka = Rovny
Kiserlovski = Basso
That Giro team finished 2nd and could have won if not for the Basso Breakdown

 

[blackmamba]

Re: Re:

lol kreuziger better than almost every sky riders besides froome and maby stannard on the flats and almost everyone uphill too what world have you lived in? Have you even watched some of the last TT over the last 5 years??

Have you?
Kreuziger this year:
Giro: 43rd
Tirreno: TT 47th and prologue 45th

2014:
Suisse: TT 19th, prologue 15th
Pais Vasco: TT 21st
Tirreno: TT 26th

Not so very impressive. At least not good enough to be counted among the few top riders, as you're claiming. Masses of riders are better than him on the flat.

using that logic majka is better than froome on this TT so even better for saxo

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I don't think it looks that great personally. It looks flaky. Question marks over most of the riders there regarding form/ability on a rolling course.

The last hill is a big issue. Obviously it's not Alpe d'Huez, but it's a climb that will probably take about 4 minutes going all out on a time-trial bike. That's enough to shed Bodnar and Bennati, and then you're relying on Rodgers and Sagan also having a good day. Replace Kreuziger with Paulinho and throw in the possibility of at least one rider crashing out in the first week, and they look very vulnerable.

So what was your opinion about the Giro team??

Kreuziger, Contador, Rogers, Basso, Boaro, Juul Jensen, Tosatto, Rovny, Paulinho.

vs

Kreuziger, Contador, Rogers, Bennati, Bodnar, Sagan, Valgren, Majka, Kiserlovski

Kreuziger = Kreuziger
Contador = Contador
Rogers = Rogers
Bennati > Tosatto
Bodnar > Boaro
Sagan > Juul Jensen
Valgren > Paulinho
Majka = Rovny
Kiserlovski = Basso
That Giro team finished 2nd and could have won if not for the Basso Breakdown

I'm not really sure of the relevance of that. Because a) the opposition was much weaker than it will be in the Tour and b) the TTT in the Tour is in completely different circumstances. It comes after 8 tougt days of racing, is significantly longer and it is hilly, compared with the dead flat one in the Giro.

It's a pointless comparison.

 

[blackmamba]

And porte sure was good at the TT in giro so him too should make sure sky wins haha! Sky is imo whatever I dont even think of them as the main contenders for contador, Nibali and quintana is the ones im afraid of with Quintana as the main guy. Sky is as mental fragile as they always been so they will be just as irrelevant as they was in the giro more interessted in what team moviestar comfirm for the tour and also astana will be more interessting!