Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[SeriousSam]

The standard may be predictive for one rider's Tour form (Contador) without necessarily being predictive for another's (Nibali).

I'm gonna leave the analysis as to whether Contador's pre Tour form is indicative about his Tour form to others, but for Nibali, we know from last year that being *** up to the Tour is consistent with being in his best ever form at the Tour. That's quite unique. We probably have to go back to Schleck to find another rider for whom this is true

 

[Andre.J]

1. Valverde
2. Contador
3. Bardet
4. Quintana
5. Froome

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Damianster quote:
Yes, Nibali is a far superior cyclist[/quote]

OK,thats all I had to know

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

A final question for you...do you think Nibali will be superior to Quintana in this Tour? Seriously?

How can you be so sure he won't?

I didnt say Im sure, but I think he won't.

to your question...because I use my brain

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Contador
Froome
Nibali
Quintana
Pinot

Interesting, what victory do you expect? (margin, style etc)

 

[Netserk]

Less than a minute. Taking the jersey in the last week. Sub 38' on Alpe.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

I can't see anyone letting Valverde go in the mountains, especially if he is already in yellow. He's far, far too dangerous to give a few minutes to. I think it would help Quintana more than anything, as Valverde could attack and tire the others out, while Quintana can just climb at his own tempo, following wheels, then pushing hard towards the end of climbs in the high altitude.

Valverde isn't Lance. He's not going to ruthlessly try to turn the team against Quintana and go all out for the GC, even if he holds the yellow jersey. He's already had a great season and if he wins a stage or two and holds yellow in the Tour I think he'd be very content - especially with the chance of doing well at a relatively weak Vuelta later in the year.

First part of your post: wrong. Both will lose time in the ITT, and then at the TTT. After the TTT, both Nairo and Piti will be a good 2-3 minutes behind the likes of Dawg and Il Squalo. Valverde may be 1 minute a head of Quintana, due to bonifs and a better ITT. Knowing that Valverde tends to fade away week 3, and that he can be attacked in the mountains, it is not unthinkable to let him take more time on Nairo, forcing the Colombian to become Piti's super domestique.

Second part: what makes you think Valverde won't? With a course like this and time running out, of course he will. Forget Wonderboy. Before and after him, Hinault not so sure about keeping his promise to Lemond, Dawg attacking and dopping Wiggo, examples abound. Guys at this level have a HUGE ego: that's what gets them there in the first place. He won't be "content" with a couple of stages. His goal is a podium. Remember?

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Sub 38' on Alpe.

. Love the fact Alpe is included once again.

First part of your post: wrong. Both will lose time in the ITT, and then at the TTT. After the TTT, both Nairo and Piti will be a good 2-3 minutes behind the likes of Dawg and Il Squalo. Valverde may be 1 minute a head of Quintana, due to bonifs and a better ITT. Knowing that Valverde tends to fade away week 3, and that he can be attacked in the mountains, it is not unthinkable to let him take more time on Nairo, forcing the Colombian to become Piti's super domestique.

2-3 Minutes, really? That's a bit pessimistic. If I believed that, I'd give Quintana only a tiny chance to win the Tour.

Second part: what makes you think Valverde won't? With a course like this and time running out, of course he will. Forget Wonderboy. Before and after him, Hinault not so sure about keeping his promise to Lemond, Dawg attacking and dopping Wiggo, examples abound. Guys at this level have a HUGE ego: that's what gets them there in the first place. He won't be "content" with a couple of stages. His goal is a podium. Remember?

I don't think he'd sabotage Quintana like Armstrong would, and I think there was no indication of that in the Vuelta 2014. On the other hand, Valverde definitely has an ego, and no false humility. IIRC, when asked, he praised Freire, Purito, Contador and Samu but considers himself the greatest Spanish cyclist of that generation.

 

[Netserk]

Okay, maybe sub 39' is more likely

 

[Koba80]

Re: Re:

1 Contador
2 Quintana
3 Valverde
4 Froome
5 Majka.

I hope you're right. That would be my ideal podium.

Sadly, it's not far off the anti-doping fan's worst fear.

On another note, le Tour is doing bonifications, is that right?

 

[42x16ss]

For me:

Quintana/Froome 1/2 - either order, less than 1 minute difference

Nibali ~ 2-3 mins

Contador 4-5 minutes (post giro burnout 3rd week)

Purito to have a bad ITT and post 2nd rest day bad day, 5th @ 5-6 minutes

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Sub 38' on Alpe.

. Love the fact Alpe is included once again.

First part of your post: wrong. Both will lose time in the ITT, and then at the TTT. After the TTT, both Nairo and Piti will be a good 2-3 minutes behind the likes of Dawg and Il Squalo. Valverde may be 1 minute a head of Quintana, due to bonifs and a better ITT. Knowing that Valverde tends to fade away week 3, and that he can be attacked in the mountains, it is not unthinkable to let him take more time on Nairo, forcing the Colombian to become Piti's super domestique.

2-3 Minutes, really? That's a bit pessimistic. If I believed that, I'd give Quintana only a tiny chance to win the Tour.

Second part: what makes you think Valverde won't? With a course like this and time running out, of course he will. Forget Wonderboy. Before and after him, Hinault not so sure about keeping his promise to Lemond, Dawg attacking and dopping Wiggo, examples abound. Guys at this level have a HUGE ego: that's what gets them there in the first place. He won't be "content" with a couple of stages. His goal is a podium. Remember?

I don't think he'd sabotage Quintana like Armstrong would, and I think there was no indication of that in the Vuelta 2014. On the other hand, Valverde definitely has an ego, and no false humility. IIRC, when asked, he praised Freire, Purito, Contador and Samu but considers himself the greatest Spanish cyclist of that generation.

2-3 minutes. Yes. Movistar will be destroyed in the TTT. That plus the ITT will put Quintana and to a lesser extend Valverde in the position of a Chiappucci, Pantani, or Virenque after week 1. Not as bad as the 5 minutes back in the day, but 2-3 minutes is realistic IMO.

You make my point: the greatest Spanish cyclist of his generation has a golden opportunity to make his mark on the TdF. Validation. He won't sabotage Quintana: he will do his race regardless of Nairo's interests. Which indirectly will sabotage Quintana. There will probably be a Movistar on the podium. Not on the top of it though...

 

[Pentacycle]

Why would MOV be destroyed in the TTT? They have several big engines, and having climbers on board can also come in handy on this parcours.

 

[pink_jersey]

Movistar will top 5 the TTT )...Castroviejo, Dowsett, Malori, Valverde...One hell of a team if you ask me.

 

[staubsauger]

One of Pinot, Mollema, Bardet to surprise big time and enter the top 3, at least!

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Okay, maybe sub 39' is more likely

Still a bold statement, my guess is 40+...I want to believe he will have a peak, but actually I do not.

 

[Jan the Man]

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Rodriguez

This is on the basis that everybody escapes unscathed during the first 9 days (which obviously won't happen)!

Contador will be strong but without the Giro in their legs I think that Quintana and Froome should be the two best climbers. Nibali is dangerous during the first 9 days and could gain time especially with such a strong team. I think he will be a level behind Quintana and Froome in the mountains but may podium given first week endeavours.

In reality a lot will depend on the first week. If any of the top favourites' team suffer crashes and abandonments in the first 8 days they could through no fault of their own lose a lot of time in the TTT which would distort the standings etc. There is also the cobbled stage and if the weather is bad that could mean carnage.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

Doubt Movistar would do anything with that. The post AX 3 stage in 2013 shows exactly what they do when they isolate the leader of another team. - Nothing

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

Hitch really doesn't rate Nibali. Majka?!?

Not that I don't rate Nibali, just that I don't think all gt riders always produce. EG Contador 2013. A prediction of Froome - Quintana- Nibali- Contador -Pinot, is boring and likely won't work out anyway.

Its a bit of a guess who will and won't produce. Maybe they all will. Maybe none. Maybe its Froome and Quintana that fail.

To ensure against it being purely random I went with teams. So if Contador does well a teammate will too, sort of like RK 2 years ago, this time Majka. And Movistar the other team to do really well.

 

[The Hitch]

That stupid stage 9 ttt is going to ruin one major contender's gc chances. Imagine 3, 4 of their teammates fall in some of the early crashes. Which isn't out of the question. We have seen teams reduced heavily before in the TDF.

They have to do a 30 km tt with 6 riders vs opponents having 9. You end up losing 4 minutes based on something that has absolutely 0 to do with you.

 

[The_Cheech]

Re:

Movistar will top 5 the TTT )...Castroviejo, Dowsett, Malori, Valverde...One hell of a team if you ask me.

This was exactly my thought when I read Movistar's supposed TT handicap: They have Dowsett + Castroviejo, how can they be handicapped? I'd wager the exact opposite, that they will be fighting for the win.

 

[The_Cheech]

Too many people are banking in Alberto bonking on the third week but... You know what? The TdF will already be decided by then.

 

[The Hitch]

I expect Contador to be at his strongest in the 3rd week. That's how Majka was last year.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I expect Contador to be at his strongest in the 3rd week. That's how Majka was last year.

Why?
how do you think does his form curve look like?

and yeah that ttt is a solid bs, totally aso fvcked up.

 

[Netserk]

He will be strong all three weeks, but he has to take care of himself and use as little energy as he can in the first half, so he has enough energy left to win it in the Alpes. I think he'll ride a good ITT (~5th) and then just follow wheels on the two murs and limit the damages on the cobbles. I don't think there'll be big gaps on PSM, so if he can get the same time as Froome, that'll be fine. PdB is the most crucial mountain imo, I think he'll have to concede time to at least one of his opponents. Mende suits him perfectly, so he'll attack there, and then depending on the situation he'll perhaps do something before the last two mtfs, but if he's in a good position I think he'll boss Alpe.