Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[ferryman]

Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I don't think Landa was conjured from anywhere but why not have a sly dig and Contador will have Majka who on his day is as good a lieutenant as any. And nice dig at Movistar also. 3 down...

 

[Tonton]

Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

Lol you are so mighty ridiculous...I see you dont have an avatar, but let make some bet about 'weak'Quintana beating 'untouchable' Nibali , I dont care if signature,avatar or something but I really want know if those bullshits you mean seriously

What was ridiculous about my response? Are you claiming that Nibali's Giro win wasn't far more convincing than Quintana's? Or that he wasn't absolutely dominant in his Tour win? Or that Quintana didn't lose in 2013 by a huge margin?

Of course I am going to back it up. And I don't have an avatar because I couldn't care less about it.

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

Yeah, I'll be shocked if Valverde isn't in the yellow jersey on the first rest day. The short TT will suit him, he'll gain time and bonus seconds on the 2 or 3 hilly classic like stages and I would not be surprised to see him doing better than Quintana on the cobbles too. Quintana needs to assert his leadership on stage 10, but that could come with the baggage of having to crack his own teammate in the (probable) yellow jersey and with Nibali being the most likely one to inherit it.

 

[sunnyIce]

Nice thread. I'd like to think it'd be:

1. Dawg - will be best prepared professionally speaking, coming into this. Beware the SkyTrain.
2. Shark - Will have enough individually and as a team to thwart off other contenders.
3. Pistolero - Would have to put massive effort in both Weeks 2 and 3 to make the podium. The top 2 will be 2 strong.
4. Purito - With good turn of events, can see swapping places with #3. But support (Team) may not be enough.
5. El Condor - Will learn at this tour what it means in terms of preparation prior to the tour. And how high a level the SkyTrain and AstTrains are at.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

Valverde didn't seem uncooperative in Spain. He actually pulled at the memorable first MTF for a prolonged period of time, with Quintana in his wheel. Of course, Quintana proved too weak and dropped, whereas Valverde still had enough to win the stage.

Valverde will, and should be allowed to, target the hilly stages. He'll also focus on GC, but that is to the benefit of Quintana, provided he is actually stronger. If he is, it will be him who accelerates away. At any rate, he'll have at least one teammate with him at the business end of MTFs.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

I soooooo disagree. Having a guy with his own agenda is not an advantage. Valverde will try to gain time week 1, and force Nairo to play domestique. Think about it: when Piti takes off, the other favorites may let him go, effectively eliminating Quintana from GC contention.

I can't see anyone letting Valverde go in the mountains, especially if he is already in yellow. He's far, far too dangerous to give a few minutes to. I think it would help Quintana more than anything, as Valverde could attack and tire the others out, while Quintana can just climb at his own tempo, following wheels, then pushing hard towards the end of climbs in the high altitude.

Valverde isn't Lance. He's not going to ruthlessly try to turn the team against Quintana and go all out for the GC, even if he holds the yellow jersey. He's already had a great season and if he wins a stage or two and holds yellow in the Tour I think he'd be very content - especially with the chance of doing well at a relatively weak Vuelta later in the year.

 

[Pentacycle]

1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. Valverde
4. Contador
5. Froome

6. Zubeldia

 

[barmaher]

I have seen most of every GT in the past few years, and almost all the buildup races this season and last season. I have seen Contador v Froome in Andalucia, I have seen Quintana win Tirreno, Romandie, Nibali in the classics, the Giro.

I have read all the reports about Froome smashing it in Tenerife, all the opinions on here about the likely impact of the parcours, as well as the ability of the major players to recover from injuries over the course of the year.

And do you know what? I have absolutely no idea who will win the Tour.

Maybe Astana will smash it up in the cobbles and Nibali will ride away from his adversaries on all the tough finishes after his teammates crack them one by one.
Maybe Froome will be back to 2013 form, and will attack 10km out in all the hard MTF stages and win by 5 minutes.
Maybe Alberto Contador will break a metatarsel in the scrimmage to Mur de Huy, ride with the injury, talk about his sensations but be devastating by the time they get to Pierre St Martin. And then continually hammer all the others in every other tough stage.
Maybe Nairito will climb like a god and snap the other favourites in the high mountains, after losing just 20 seconds in the ITT.
Maybe we will see Valverde, Martin, Pinot, Bardet or someone else upset the apple cart.

I just don't really know. It never ceases to amaze me how you guys argue the whole time. Sticking my finger in the air, here is my prediction.

1. Froome
2. Nibali
3. Quintana
4. Valverde
5. Pinot

I have a sneaky feeling that Alberto Contador will find it difficult to recover from his Giro exertions. But I am not a sports scientist, so this is a hunch.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

Lol you are so mighty ridiculous...I see you dont have an avatar, but let make some bet about 'weak'Quintana beating 'untouchable' Nibali , I dont care if signature,avatar or something but I really want know if those bullshits you mean seriously

What was ridiculous about my response? Are you claiming that Nibali's Giro win wasn't far more convincing than Quintana's? Or that he wasn't absolutely dominant in his Tour win? Or that Quintana didn't lose in 2013 by a huge margin?

Of course I am going to back it up. And I don't have an avatar because I couldn't care less about it.

Nibali's wins at Tour or Giro werent impressive at all.He had weak competition like Quintana had during his Giro win.And of course he didnt need Stelvio-'gate' FTW, but Im not going to discuss it with you as I remember what mess you did in that particular thread.
A final question for you...do you think Nibali will be superior to Quintana in this Tour? Seriously?

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

Lol you are so mighty ridiculous...I see you dont have an avatar, but let make some bet about 'weak'Quintana beating 'untouchable' Nibali , I dont care if signature,avatar or something but I really want know if those bullshits you mean seriously

What was ridiculous about my response? Are you claiming that Nibali's Giro win wasn't far more convincing than Quintana's? Or that he wasn't absolutely dominant in his Tour win? Or that Quintana didn't lose in 2013 by a huge margin?

Of course I am going to back it up. And I don't have an avatar because I couldn't care less about it.

Nibali's wins at Tour or Giro werent impressive at all.He had weak competition like Quintana had during his Giro win.And of course he didnt need Stelvio-'gate' FTW, but Im not going to discuss it with you as I remember what mess you did in that particular thread.
A final question for you...do you think Nibali will be superior to Quintana in this Tour? Seriously?

Absolute rubbish. According to the numbers crunchers - Nibali averaged 5.99w/kg on the five major climbs (slightly higher than what Froome did in 2013) - http://cyclingtips.com.au/2014/08/t...lysis-of-climbing-data-and-what-does-it-mean/. And this was after he had already put minutes into his rivals on a cobbled stage - pretty impressive stuff.

He won by the biggest winning margin in 17 years, and won four stages - one of which wasn't even in the mountains. You have to be incredibly one-eyed to claim that win wasn't 'impressive at all'.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

A final question for you...do you think Nibali will be superior to Quintana in this Tour? Seriously?

How can you be so sure he won't?

 

[Miburo]

People keep overrating quintana, i'm sure nibali can follow him in the mountains. I'm certain he will, nibali is a better overall rider than quintana.

And quintana's mental strength hasn't been tested, facing a guy like nibali will be torture then. Nibali and contador are the same, maybe nibali is even riskier than contador because of his descending.

If it was just quintana and nibali, nibali would destroy quintana.

Has quintana ever faced high quality riders with the pressure being the leader to win it? Tour 2013 doesn't fit that description.

 

[Angliru]

Re:

1 Contador
2 Quintana
3 Valverde
4 Froome
5 Majka.

I hope you're right. That would be my ideal podium.

 

[SeriousSam]

Hitch really doesn't rate Nibali. Majka?!?

 

[Netserk]

Contador
Froome
Nibali
Quintana
Pinot

 

[Angliru]

Re:

Not possible, because of crashes.

Maybe we will get lucky and everyone will make it through primarily unscathed. Just a hope.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

1. Quintana
2. Nibali
3. Valverde
4. Contador
5. Froome

6. Zubeldia

I fixed that for you!

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

I cant believe my eyes, so many people believe in Giro-Tour double, situation has changed here, I remember the general opinion was opposite ..interesting

It's quite interesting really. Basically Contador has been good enough in this Giro to convince many he's still the best. I'm actually on the opposite side of the argument though. I never doubted his ability, but I think the energy he's had to expend in the Giro will be to much for him.

Unfortunately we've not really had the top 4 race against each other without crashes to know who's truly the best. But I just don't believe Contador is enough above the other 3 to beat them with a Giro in his legs. And to be quite honest I don't think anyone should be that good. Remember the last guy who did the Giro-Tour double wasn't exactly a paragon of clean cycling.

As I said I think it's really hard to know who's the best right now. I think under perfect conditions in the high mountains it's probably Contador/Quintana > Froome > Nibali. But the gaps are very small. And considering Froome is the best in TT and Nibali seems most complete (descents/cobbles) and both of them have very strong teams it's nigh impossible to predict what will happen.

That being said, excluding crashes, I reckon it will be something like:
1. Quintana (the lack of time trials strongly favours Quintana).
2. Froome (in the end I think he's going to be the 2nd best climber considering Contador has a Giro in his legs).
3. Nibali (he won't lose that much in the mountains, and he could be higher if he takes time in odd stages).
4. Contador (I just think he'll be too tired to take the top 3, and of course he'll try to win, which could cost him time).
5. Rodriguez (the lack of TT's favours him as much as Quintana, as do the punchy stages, I just think he's to old to challenge the likes of Quintana).

Honestly though, I don't think anyone will really know until La Pierre Saint Martin at the earliest.

But didn't Ullrich lose major minutes to Pantani due to one rainy mountainous stage where he simply blew up? Wasn't that the primary reason for Pantani's win? Would he have won otherwise? It's been a long while since I watched that Tour so the details for me may be quite sketchy.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

I cant believe my eyes, so many people believe in Giro-Tour double, situation has changed here, I remember the general opinion was opposite ..interesting

Obviously the opinion has changed because, well, the situation has changed. There's a huuuge difference whether you ask this situation in January or after the Giro.

 

[Angliru]

At the Tour crashes inevitably play their part and it is almost certain that at least one podium place goes to someone outside of the circle of favourites.
Out of the big four Froome has so far been the weakest mentally, but if everything goes right for him he can be an unbeatable terminator again. His below par spring campaign however rises questions whether he is able to reach the heights of 2013 or even Dauphine 2014 again. He looked like a different rider this spring, apart from one stage in Andalucia. However, he was the strongest rider in Tour 2012 after a non-existent spring campaign so one cannot draw too many conclusions from this years one.
Quintana has had the best and most consistent spring campaign out of the big four. He seemed to peak for Tirreno and was really impressive there, though less so in Pais Vasco and Romandie. I'm not sure his climbing is that much better compared to two years ago, but he has undoubtedly made a huge leap mentality-wise. He has now a self-confidence and assuredness of a champion, in a way that most reminds me of Contador. However, he looks to be much more cagey, calculating and conservative rider than Alberto. The big unknown factor is how he good/bad he is on the cobbles compared to his GC rivals. Also, the presence of Valverde in his team can be a double-edged sword.
Nibali is following his last years model of one superpeak, but the question is, is this superpeak high enough to beat his rivals when they are all there and in form. He is probably the most complete racer of the big four, and has a stage with cobbles to shine on again. However he has previously been somewhat weaker climber than other three and the fact that none of them where last year when Tour reached big mountains leaves us with a lot of questions and no answers. For me though, it very much looked like he cracked at end of the stage 8 hill climb, even if the gap was measly 3 seconds. Also if the cobbled stage is raced in dry conditions, Nibali's advantage over the others and specially Contador should be significantly lesser than in last years rain-soaked epic.
And last but not least Contador. Big question is how much his by now almost certain victory of the Giro influences his Tour form. For me it seems he is planning his main peak for the Tour as he is definetely not at his best at the Giro (at least climbing-wise, the long TT was really impressive). It is impossible that the Giro won't have any influence on his Tour form, but the thing with Contador and Grand Tours is that if none of his rivals are head and shoulders stronger than him (like Froome in 2013), then Contador wins. If he isn't crushed, he always finds the way to win. At this point it is absolutely impossible to predict if someone is able to crush him or not.
Of the other, Pinot has impressed me the most thus far. He seems to have stepped up a bit this year. How significant it is, remains to be seen. Also given the mountainious nature of this years Tour, he is likely to shine and reach the podium again, though victory is without his reach.
I won't make a specified prediction about final placings before the Dauphine and Suisse are over, but hope for an open and unpredictable Tour as there have been far too many processions in last years.

A fine analysis. Great job!

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

Lol you are so mighty ridiculous...I see you dont have an avatar, but let make some bet about 'weak'Quintana beating 'untouchable' Nibali , I dont care if signature,avatar or something but I really want know if those bullshits you mean seriously

What was ridiculous about my response? Are you claiming that Nibali's Giro win wasn't far more convincing than Quintana's? Or that he wasn't absolutely dominant in his Tour win? Or that Quintana didn't lose in 2013 by a huge margin?

Of course I am going to back it up. And I don't have an avatar because I couldn't care less about it.

Nibali's wins at Tour or Giro werent impressive at all.He had weak competition like Quintana had during his Giro win.And of course he didnt need Stelvio-'gate' FTW, but Im not going to discuss it with you as I remember what mess you did in that particular thread.
A final question for you...do you think Nibali will be superior to Quintana in this Tour? Seriously?

Yes, Nibali is a far superior cyclist

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

I cant believe my eyes, so many people believe in Giro-Tour double, situation has changed here, I remember the general opinion was opposite ..interesting

It's quite interesting really. Basically Contador has been good enough in this Giro to convince many he's still the best. I'm actually on the opposite side of the argument though. I never doubted his ability, but I think the energy he's had to expend in the Giro will be to much for him.

Unfortunately we've not really had the top 4 race against each other without crashes to know who's truly the best. But I just don't believe Contador is enough above the other 3 to beat them with a Giro in his legs. And to be quite honest I don't think anyone should be that good. Remember the last guy who did the Giro-Tour double wasn't exactly a paragon of clean cycling.

As I said I think it's really hard to know who's the best right now. I think under perfect conditions in the high mountains it's probably Contador/Quintana > Froome > Nibali. But the gaps are very small. And considering Froome is the best in TT and Nibali seems most complete (descents/cobbles) and both of them have very strong teams it's nigh impossible to predict what will happen.

That being said, excluding crashes, I reckon it will be something like:
1. Quintana (the lack of time trials strongly favours Quintana).
2. Froome (in the end I think he's going to be the 2nd best climber considering Contador has a Giro in his legs).
3. Nibali (he won't lose that much in the mountains, and he could be higher if he takes time in odd stages).
4. Contador (I just think he'll be too tired to take the top 3, and of course he'll try to win, which could cost him time).
5. Rodriguez (the lack of TT's favours him as much as Quintana, as do the punchy stages, I just think he's to old to challenge the likes of Quintana).

Honestly though, I don't think anyone will really know until La Pierre Saint Martin at the earliest.

But didn't Ullrich lose major minutes to Pantani due to one rainy mountainous stage where he simply blew up? Wasn't that the primary reason for Pantani's win? Would he have won otherwise? It's been a long while since I watched that Tour so the details for me may be quite sketchy.

Does it really matter concerning the chance of a Tour-Giro double? Pantani already rode 2 minutes away of Ullrich on Plateau de Beille.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Nibali
Quintana
Contador
Rodriguez
Froome

 

[VeloCity]

I'm totally puzzled by the way a lot of people in here tend to forget how in the last mountain stage of this 2015 Giro, Contador was dropped by the likes of freakin' Hesjedal.
He won grand total of ZERO stages. He never looked amazing in the mountains (except in the Mortirolo...sort of).
And it will be his second GT.
Call it wishful thinking.

Could just as easily mean that AC wasn't even at tip-top form in the Giro, aiming to peak for the TdF, and yet he still won.

Besides, what exactly has Nibali done so far this year? He was terrible at Tirreno and 10th overall and 1:30 behind Froome on GC at Romandie is not exactly inspiring.

Re: top choices for TdF, 7 mountain stages with 5 summit finishes but only one very short ITT and one short-ish TTT, gotta go with Quintana. If he's on climbing form just can't see anywhere that Froome or Contador will be able to gain significant chunks of time. IMO, and barring crashes, illness, or other misfortune, it should be a battle between Quintana, Froome, and Contador.

Is Porte riding the Tour? Curious to see if he rebounds.

What did we see last year from nibali before the tour? A bad dauphine a bad tour de romandie,...
The shape before the tdf itself doesn't count at all and now please don't tell me nibali wouldn't have had a chance if AC and froome didn't crash. Of course its possible that one of those riders had won the tour if the hadn't abandoned but Nibali was already 2 minutes in front before the big mountains and the fact that he always was the strongest one on the mtf´s shows that AC and froome would have had huge problems to beat vincenzo.

Sure but the poster I was responding to was saying that AC can't be considered a fave for the Tour because he was being dropped at the end of the Giro - I was just pointing out that if you want to go by that standard, then Nibali has looked even worse so far this year.