Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[damian13ster]

Re:

Not sure what cobbles have to do with which class of climbers you're in.

That was response to the last sentence of his post. Also it is quite an important fact considering that cobbles are also featured this year.
And the response about climbers is well presented in the data that I reffered to.

 

[meat puppet]

One thing is certain: astana will throttle the cobbles. It is up to the others to respond. If the team is as strong as in the giro, the others will be in a pickle.

Also the climbing graph posted above is self explanatory. Nibali 2014 was the strongest since contador and andy 2009 though he was not pushed to the max as other top favs were not there.

So I would not underestimate him, especially after the giro showing by astana.

 

[Miburo]

Nibali the best climber since 2009 in the tour? LMAO

Even wiggins outclimbed him in 2012.

Rewatch stage 8 of the tour 2014, contador was dropping nibali and he wasn't breathing. Nibali never proved that he's on the same level as froome and contador. Never in a GT.

 

[meat puppet]

Talking about the aggregates here. They paint a clear enough picture.

Note that all I said is that the numbers show nibali 14 was very very strong (too strong for his own good if you ask me) which to me indicates that he is not to be underestimated.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re: Re:

Not sure what cobbles have to do with which class of climbers you're in.

That was response to the last sentence of his post. Also it is quite an important fact considering that cobbles are also featured this year.
And the response about climbers is well presented in the data that I reffered to.

Exactly. Cobbles are in there, and were very important last year. They can also totally change the dynamic of the race. If guys like Froome and Contador loose 2-3 minutes to Nibali, then they have to make all of that up and then some. Nibali has proven to be the best bike handler on the cobbles last year. If it rains again, I can see Froome losing minutes. Contador probably a bit less than Froome, and Quintana is a bit of an enigma.

 

[Walkman]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

Hard evidence?

There are too many unknown variables that effect the climbing numbers to call them "hard evidence". Armstrong put up similar numbers in 2009 as to previous years when he was winning yet none would suggest he was climbing as well as before. The race, the route, the weather, the stage all effect the performance which makes it difficult to compare different times from different races/years.

The fact is that Nibali has never faced the top competition, in the mountains and in the time-trials and come out on top. I am not slamming him, but the 2010 Vuelta, the 2013 Giro and the 2014 Tour was won without the best riders present during the whole race. And I know staying on the bike is a part of racing but you can't say that he has ever proven himself against the best in the mountains. In 2012 he did go toe-to-toe with Froome and was outclassed. Sure, he might have improved but I still want to se a real showdown between him and the rest of the top dogs before I give my verdict on him.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

People write off Nibali? He has won multiple GTs.

He beat Rodriguez in the Vuelta (back when he could probably have won a GT), and Uran in the Giro.
Plus judging by the Giro, his team will be quite strong too. I don't think he'd be at too much of a disadvantage.
Good bike handler over the cobbles, in the rain and down the mountains. I think he might just win it.

Contador might have good too deep at the giro, but i still think he'd be the one that the others are marking.

No offence to Uran,Rodriguez and Pinot but Contador,Froome and Quintana are on a whole another level and not only climbing wise.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

People write off Nibali? He has won multiple GTs.

He beat Rodriguez in the Vuelta (back when he could probably have won a GT), and Uran in the Giro.
Plus judging by the Giro, his team will be quite strong too. I don't think he'd be at too much of a disadvantage.
Good bike handler over the cobbles, in the rain and down the mountains. I think he might just win it.

Contador might have good too deep at the giro, but i still think he'd be the one that the others are marking.

No offence to Uran,Rodriguez and Pinot but Contador,Froome and Quintana are on a whole another level and not only climbing wise.

We saw that in the Alps in Tdf 13

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

Hard evidence?

There are too many unknown variables that effect the climbing numbers to call them "hard evidence". Armstrong put up similar numbers in 2009 as to previous years when he was winning yet none would suggest he was climbing as well as before. The race, the route, the weather, the stage all effect the performance which makes it difficult to compare different times from different races/years.

The fact is that Nibali has never faced the top competition, in the mountains and in the time-trials and come out on top. I am not slamming him, but the 2010 Vuelta, the 2013 Giro and the 2014 Tour was won without the best riders present during the whole race. And I know staying on the bike is a part of racing but you can't say that he has ever proven himself against the best in the mountains. In 2012 he did go toe-to-toe with Froome and was outclassed. Sure, he might have improved but I still want to se a real showdown between him and the rest of the top dogs before I give my verdict on him.

Yeah, hard evidence. He was dropping everyone at will. Even though he already had GC wrapped up he was still attacking from 10km+ and winning by over a minute. Now tell me who of the favorites was doing the same in GTs? Just compare it to last Vuelta or this Giro in which competition wasn't much stronger. When was the last time you have seen such a dominate performance? Froome at 2013TdF and Nibali at Giro. Since 2013 Nibali is at whole new level in races he targers.
And those numbers do take the conditions into account if I understand the formula correctly. Also, it wasn't a single stage. It is throughout entire race, in which Nibali wasn't even pushed, rode entire climbs either alone or on the front (with Peraud, Pinot staying on his wheel for a while, etc.).


And what argument do you have to claim that it wasn't best climbing performance since Tour 2009? Your own prejudice toward Nibali?

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

Not sure what cobbles have to do with which class of climbers you're in.

That was response to the last sentence of his post. Also it is quite an important fact considering that cobbles are also featured this year.
And the response about climbers is well presented in the data that I reffered to.

Exactly. Cobbles are in there, and were very important last year. They can also totally change the dynamic of the race. If guys like Froome and Contador loose 2-3 minutes to Nibali, then they have to make all of that up and then some. Nibali has proven to be the best bike handler on the cobbles last year. If it rains again, I can see Froome losing minutes. Contador probably a bit less than Froome, and Quintana is a bit of an enigma.

This time Contador has Sagan to follow though.

 

[SeriousSam]

Yes, if you estimate his (length of effort, w/kg) curve using the 2014 Tour, is looks similar to Froome's 2013.

But until I see Nibali not being dropped by Froome, Quintana and Contador when they go all out, I still can't quite believe it. That may well be a bias due to him always being dropped like a stone in the past, but the bookmakers also share this view.

 

[damian13ster]

Nibali is much less explosive than Froome and Contador, so he will be dropped on the hills, but he can ride at insane pace for a very long time so high mountains and long climbs will suit him. I highly doubt he will be dropped for good there. The question is whether performance on a cobbles will be enough to offset 20-30 seconds in total that he will lose in stages that end with short hills.
Will be interesting one for sure. For me he is the 2nd favorite behind Froome

 

[ILovecycling]

Nibali is much less explosive than Froome and Contador, so he will be dropped on the hills, but he can ride at insane pace for a very long time so high mountains and long climbs will suit him. I highly doubt he will be dropped for good there. The question is whether performance on a cobbles will be enough to offset 20-30 seconds in total that he will lose in stages that end with short hills.
Will be interesting one for sure. For me he is the 2nd favorite behind Froome

Thats for sure that Nibs and Nairo will be dropped for a while because their accleration is very bad in comparison with Froome and Contador.I think they can even help themselfs in pacing each other until they catch the duo again.
OTOH Im not sure how Quintana and Nibali will drop the other two, they can only do that by riding hard pace for very long time which is a big disadvantage.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Yes, if you estimate his (length of effort, w/kg) curve using the 2014 Tour, is looks similar to Froome's 2013.

But until I see Nibali not being dropped by Froome, Quintana and Contador when they go all out, I still can't quite believe it. That may well be a bias due to him always being dropped like a stone in the past, but the bookmakers also share this view.

Yeah, the same bookmakers that had Wiggins 30-1 two 2 weeks before the start of the last Tour, and joint favourite for Paris Roubaix. The bookmakers know very little.

Also what is the past? Dauphine 2014? When Nibali was way below his best. Froome in good shape vs Nibali in good shape has very rarely been seen, and AC vs Nibali has been seen, but the last time was in 2011. Things change in 4 years. Nibali won't win in all likelihood, but he will no doubt put up a fight.

 

[ray j willings]

What we need to find out is how good is Nibs. He did lose Bertie's wheel at the tour last year but it was right at the end of the race and he may have just sat up although "pride" tells me he was spent.
He has never yet shown that he can climb with the likes of Bertie , Chaos theory limbs . tinymanofpower. etc
Horner gave him a beating at the Vuelta although Nibs did put up a surprisingly good fight on the last mountain stage.
For me Valverde surprised me at the Vuleta last year. He stayed with the big boys and was aggressive on a lot of the climbs and definitely wasted energy. Looking at the Giro I think Astana are going to absolutely hammer it from the go on every mountain stage to hurt their rivals.
Could work. Nibs is well capable of winning the "unexpected stages"
It could be epic and if Bertie gets top form then the other teams will have to stop him.
The dauphine is on ITV 4 live....We will find more out then

 

[Pippo_San]

I'm totally puzzled by the way a lot of people in here tend to forget how in the last mountain stage of this 2015 Giro, Contador was dropped by the likes of freakin' Hesjedal.
He won grand total of ZERO stages. He never looked amazing in the mountains (except in the Mortirolo...sort of).
And it will be his second GT.
Call it wishful thinking.

A Froome 2013 style has no rivals. But he's frail, way too frail. One moment of trouble and it's game over.

Nibs and Nairo are two mofo fighters. They're excellent climbers. They know how to win a GT.

And that will be the real showdown.

 

[Rollthedice]

Nibali is an outsider for the win, no doubt. But he has proved that since 2010 with one exception, he ends up on the podium every time he enters a GT. Since he is with Astana he is a much stronger rider and given that we didn't have a direct showdown with the other three in a race that matters it's not easy to predict the outcome. I wouldn't be so sure he would be dropped hard. They might gain seconds but Le Tour might be won or lost in the cobbled stage, in the TTT, in a hard raced unpredictable stage, by a surprise move, by risking and attacking in unusual places all of which are mastered very well by Nibs.

Slongo said that Landa is close in test to Nibali and we all saw how he dropped Contador at will. This of course doesn't mean Contador will be the same at Le Tour. Froome is yo-yoing with his form and I wouldn't bet my money that he will survive a very aggressive first week or so. Astana did a great rehearsal at the Giro.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm totally puzzled by the way a lot of people in here tend to forget how in the last mountain stage of this 2015 Giro, Contador was dropped by the likes of freakin' Hesjedal.
He won grand total of ZERO stages. He never looked amazing in the mountains (except in the Mortirolo...sort of).
And it will be his second GT.
Call it wishful thinking.

A Froome 2013 style has no rivals. But he's frail, way too frail. One moment of trouble and it's game over.

Nibs and Nairo are two mofo fighters. They're excellent climbers. They know how to win a GT.

And that will be the real showdown.

Just quoting this now so I can get back to you at the end of July.

 

[SeriousSam]

A Froome 2013 style has no rivals.

Contador has shown a level at least as good as that one before, but it was all the way back in 2009.

Also, again, Nibali's (length of effort, w/kg) curve looks like Froome's from that year. If the number are to be believed, this implies Nibali could have been on Froome's wheel at Ax3 and Ventaux.

That would still favour Froome who murdered the time trials as well, but there aren't any notable time trials this year.

And as for Quintana, he's young and may have improved. Unlike Nibali and Contador, he has, however, not shown a level of performance yet that wouldn't get annihilated by Froome's 2013 form.

 

[Jagartrott]

Re:

The dauphine is on ITV 4 live....We will find more out then

You'll not find out more I think because Nibali was kinda sh*te there last year.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

I think the apprehension that many have about Nibali is the fact that he hasn't shown this level of dominance anywhere other than in 2014 Tour, and only on the one stage versus the elite gc contenders. There has been no evidence of that same level before or since.

 

[Eagle]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

I think the apprehension that many have about Nibali is the fact that he hasn't shown this level of dominance anywhere other than in 2014 Tour, and only on the one stage versus the elite gc contenders. There has been no evidence of that same level before or since.

Giro 2013

 

[damian13ster]

Nibali is much less explosive than Froome and Contador, so he will be dropped on the hills, but he can ride at insane pace for a very long time so high mountains and long climbs will suit him. I highly doubt he will be dropped for good there. The question is whether performance on a cobbles will be enough to offset 20-30 seconds in total that he will lose in stages that end with short hills.
Will be interesting one for sure. For me he is the 2nd favorite behind Froome

Thats for sure that Nibs and Nairo will be dropped for a while because their accleration is very bad in comparison with Froome and Contador.I think they can even help themselfs in pacing each other until they catch the duo again.
OTOH Im not sure how Quintana and Nibali will drop the other two, they can only do that by riding hard pace for very long time which is a big disadvantage.

The same way he was dropping people at the Tour. Tiring them out and then even a small acceleration is deadly. Or just riding them off the wheel.

 

[Campervan man]

What I'd like...
AC
NQ
VN
CF (top four separated by under 1:30)
TP

But what I fear might be more likely....
CF (2 minute gap)
NQ
VN
AC (1:30 back)
TP (1 minute back)

I think a TT of greater length would help Alberto and hinder Nairo. Froome is unknown though if he shows up in Alien mode and stays on through week 1 it's quite scary how much he'll mock the rest. Nairo can only win if Froome DNF's and Alberto fades. Nibali's only chance is a Froome fail and take big on first week/ downhill or use a strong team to advantage. Contadors only hope lies with outrageous attacking to decimate the field early on a mountain stage, take big then hold lead. All fear the '13 Dawg though.

 

[phanatic]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

I think the apprehension that many have about Nibali is the fact that he hasn't shown this level of dominance anywhere other than in 2014 Tour, and only on the one stage versus the elite gc contenders. There has been no evidence of that same level before or since.

I thought 2013 Giro was nearly as impressive, and the Vuelta that year not much worse.