Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[gregrowlerson]

This is really too hard to predict. Seems like an extremely open Tour.

Hard to split Nibali, Froome and Quintana. I want Contador to win, but am leaning more towards this being a bridge too far.

It's a great route for Rodriguez, and he did a great Pais Vasco, so I think he has a chance of contending also.

Valverde is in amazing form, but he probably can't climb in the high mountains with Quintana. Still, he is due some luck and may sneak onto the podium.

As for the big four finishing top four, it's more likely than most think. Opinions are clouded by last years crash-fest. In many editions of the TDF we see the favourites perform as expected.

2000: Armstrong, Ullrich, Beloki.
2001: Same again.
2002: Ullrich didn't race.
2003: Beloki crashed.

And other years like 2010. Contador, Schleck, Menchov would have been many people's top three picks.

 

[Sasquatch]

Re:

Purito has one issue though, cobblestones.

He will have a good team to support him there though.

Purito has a great chance to win this.

 

[alspacka]

The shark is being underestimated here I feel. Nice route for Purito.

Nibali
Froome (50/50 DNF)
Contador
JRod
Quintana (crashes)

 

[R0BL4MBT0N]

1. Froome--I've seen Froome fly up short sections of the steep stuff before so I don't believe that will cause any problems, and besides I don't think those time gaps would be too significant anyway. In terms of the big mountains, there doesn't look to be enough sustained steep sections which might be potential cracking zone. I'm going to assume that Froome will be in top form, despite this and last season and in that scenario I think he will be difficult to beat.
2. Quintana--Clearly he is the strongest climber so maybe he should be the number 1 favourite, but the racing will have to go from earlier climbs in the stage I think if he is to really benefit from this. I'm yet to be, and maybe I'm wrong here, convinced that he can break the others in one climb the way prime Contador and Froome could. In the event that Contador loses time earlier and starts with his suicide missions I think Quintana will win, otherwise the controlled procession to the final climb will blow it for him.
3. Nibali--Really though, who actually knows? He doesn't seem to have actually "raced" any of the other favourites in such a long time. He's smart enough and skilled enough to gain time when there are opportunities though so even if he isn't climbing on their level he should still be very much in contention. If he actually is, against expectation, a match on the climbs though I could see him winning it.
4. Contador--I don't think that the Giro will be prejudicial to his performance at the Tour. The situation seems very different from 2011 where I think he was clearly targeting the Giro and Tour on an equal footing so I think his season will have been designed so that the Giro accounts for a typical training block but with some tapering into it. However, there still isn't enough evidence since the 2012 Vuelta to convince me that he can race top form Froome mano-o-mano on a final climb and win. I think he's going to need to tactically out-manoeuvre everyone and since I don't know how he'll do that (given also the appalling state of his team at the Giro) I think he might lose out.
5. Valverde--The early stages may put him into a leading position and, not that he needs one, but he'll have an excuse to follow wheels with Quintana as the rider everyone is watching. I have a feeling he might just be riding this to target the Vuelta this year but he seems to manage to put in consistent performance year round regardless.

 

[deValtos]

Come to think of it I feel like this is the strongest TDF lineup I've ever seen in a long time

The big 4: Froome, Contador, Nibali, Contador
Couple of old Spanish guys: Valverde, Rodriguez
Couple of Americans: Talansky, Van Garderen
Frenchies: Peraud, Pinot, Bardet
Extra supporting cast: Pozzovio, Hesjedal, Mollema, Gesink, Aru, Porte, Majka, Rolland, D.Martin, Kelderman

Ofcourse half will crash out or fail miserably ........

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

2. Quintana--Clearly he is the strongest climber so maybe he should be the number 1 favourite

uhhhh we will see about that

 

[DenisMenchov]

Re:

Come to think of it I feel like this is the strongest TDF lineup I've ever seen in a long time

The big 4: Froome, Contador, Nibali, Contador
Couple of old Spanish guys: Valverde, Rodriguez
Couple of Americans: Talansky, Van Garderen
Frenchies: Peraud, Pinot, Bardet
Extra supporting cast: Pozzovio, Hesjedal, Mollema, Gesink, Aru, Porte, Majka, Rolland, D.Martin, Kelderman

Ofcourse half will crash out or fail miserably ........

Rolland not French anymore?

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

1. Froome--I've seen Froome fly up short sections of the steep stuff before so I don't believe that will cause any problems, and besides I don't think those time gaps would be too significant anyway. In terms of the big mountains, there doesn't look to be enough sustained steep sections which might be potential cracking zone. I'm going to assume that Froome will be in top form, despite this and last season and in that scenario I think he will be difficult to beat.

Agreed that Froome can do steep. According to Dr Ferrari, Froome climbed at more than 2000 VAM for 8 or so minutes at the steep parts in the Ruta del Sol to distance Contador. He's probably just fine in that terrain.

 

[Alcanelo]

People mentioning Peraud....really now really?

 

[DenisMenchov]

Re:

People mentioning Peraud....really now really?

It's not like ha can't sneak in to TOP 10 again. Horner was a lot older that Peraud when he won the Vuelta.

 

[Miburo]

Purito isn't the big favorite, he only proved once he could compete with the best (in the tour). In the tour of 2013 and that was only in the last week.

Before that he also got crushed. But if he can be in the form of his life then he has a chance, but a small one, not a great one.

 

[Jelantik]

I would pick Quintana vs Froome. Nibali is the most all rounder. If he is zipping through cobble stage again like last year, he'll have a chance. In the mountain itself, I still rate Quintana and Froome above him. As far as Contador, that would be a million dollar question. Whether we believed or not his interview, the Giro has been draining more than he would have expected. (maybe he just realized. darn, double? what was I thinking? ). He probably didn't expect to race right from the first stage to the last stage. Everyone in the peloton said that this is the hardest giro in terms of the effort they have to do everyday. Contador's form in this Giro is good enough to defend the attack from Astana. With bad luck, bad day, chasing alone etc, it's hard to know where his form is. But if he can fend off the strong Astana by himself, his form is definitely far better than his early season. But, If Froome shows up with 2013 form, it would be really hard for Contador to top him off. For now, I would not put my hope that high for Contador. At least, not yet. He is human after all and human body isn't an exact science.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

People mentioning Peraud....really now really?

I doubt he will make the top 5 or 7.

 

[Scarponi]

1.Robobasso
2.Contador.
3.Froome
4.Peraud
5.Quintana
6.Nibali

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Purito isn't the big favorite, he only proved once he could compete with the best (in the tour). In the tour of 2013 and that was only in the last week.

Before that he also got crushed. But if he can be in the form of his life then he has a chance, but a small one, not a great one.

He only started twice in the Tour with the goal of competing with the best. In 2010 and 2013. In 2014 he rode with horrible form and an injury.

Of course he isn't the big favorite. He will not win the Tour. But he showed so many times in the past he can compete with the big four .... in the mountains. He isn't that consistent as someone as Nibali or Contador. But if he's on form, he's in the same league in the mountain stages.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

1. Chris Froome - Seriously, has everyone forgotten how insane he was in 2013? Last year he crashed out and was clearly not up to form in the Vuelta. His attack on AC earlier in the year was monstrous. If he is in good form, which I see no reason he won't be, he will beat a tired AC.
2. Alberto Contador - It's tough to say how this hard Giro will effect him, but I think his savviness and will power will get him to second, though not be enough to handle Froome. I predict a tough mountain day or two will set him back.
3. Nibali - Everything I've read says Nibali's 2014 Tour performance was basically indistinguishable from Froome's 2013 and comparable to performances in the doping era. He also has won all three GT's. I think he is underrated on these forums, though perhaps my ranking him 3rd is a continuation of that.
4. Quintana - He might be the next Contador, but he is the least proven by far of the big 4. I have heard many times on here that he is the best climber, but I am not sure where that view comes from. Is it merely because he is the worst TTer? I have seen him drop Contador when Contador was not in form, but Froome was a better climber than him in the 2013 Tour and he hasn't gone against an in form Nibali. So I'm not convinced.
5. TJVG - As an American, I will predict the American with a history of 5th place finishes to finish 5th.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Pinot

 

[Metabolol]

Re:

1. Chris Froome - Seriously, has everyone forgotten how insane he was in 2013? Last year he crashed out and was clearly not up to form in the Vuelta. His attack on AC earlier in the year was monstrous. If he is in good form, which I see no reason he won't be, he will beat a tired AC.

Froome can be very strong in the climbs and TTing but he isn't as all around as Nibali or Contador. He can't control a race the same way as those two can. The smallest setback could ruin the whole TDF for Froome. It doesn't take much for his performance level to drop to a more mortal level.

Sure he was strong in 2013 and has done some monster attacks since then but his TTing has not been as impressive as of late and he has also been completely shelled a few times. Just because you lose 30+min on a stage doesn't mean it can be neglected when you look at the overall performance.

Personally I still think he can put in monster performances but can he keep things together over three weeks facing stiffer competition than he did in 2013?

 

[Miburo]

Re:

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Pinot

Don't believe in a top 5 for piti and purito?

What TGBM?

 

[Miburo]

Re:

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Pinot

Don't believe in a top 5 for piti and purito?

What about TGBM?

 

[Joelsim]

Froome
Nibali
Quintana
Contador
Pinot

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

1. Quintana
2. Froome
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Pinot

Don't believe in a top 5 for piti and purito?

What about TGBM?

I am absolutely crap at guess the rider' from their initials. who is TGBM?

Btw, as my top-5 is the same as Dekker Tifosi, I don't think Piti will top-5, Purito however might, especially if one of the Big-4 fails. But Piti is not a great climber in the high mountains. He will get stages and placings aplenty, but top-5? More unrealistic. I can't be sure though until the Pyrenees.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I made a compilation of the lists. 5 points for place 1; 4 for place 2 etc. I ignored the jokes and the incomplete lists. Here are the current standings:

1. Froome 98
2. Contador 93
TIE Quintana 93
4. Nibali 62
5. Pinot 25
TIE Valverde 25
7. Rodríguez 14

 

[Jspear]

Re:

I made a compilation of the lists. 5 points for place 1; 4 for place 2 etc. I ignored the jokes and the incomplete lists. Here are the current standings:

1. Froome 98
2. Contador 93
TIE Quintana 93
4. Nibali 62
5. Pinot 25
TIE Valverde 25
7. Rodríguez 14

Cool, thanks. I'd say that's a pretty solid list.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I made a compilation of the lists. 5 points for place 1; 4 for place 2 etc. I ignored the jokes and the incomplete lists. Here are the current standings:

1. Froome 98
2. Contador 93
TIE Quintana 93
4. Nibali 62
5. Pinot 25
TIE Valverde 25
7. Rodríguez 14

I think we underrate nibali in this forum