Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[Eagle]

Re: Re:

1. AC
2. CF
3. NQ
4. RM
5. VN

honorable mentions AV, TvG, TP, RB, PR, BM (?!), JA, JR

Is it
1. Contador = AC
2. Froome = CF
3. Quintana = NQ
4. Majka = RM
5. Nibali = VN

Honorable mentions:
Valverde = AV
van Garderen = TvG
Pinot = TP
Bardet = RB
? = PR
? = BM
? = JA
Rodriguez = JR


What are the others?

PR= Pierre Rolland
BM=Bauke Mollema
JA= Julian Alaphilippe
JR= Joaquin Rodriguez

I would have said JA = Julián Arredondo

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

I'm not saying Majka will top 5 the tour, but overrated? He was clearly the 2nd best climber of the tour last year.

No he was not, Pinot was.

Anyway, a surprise list:

Valverde
Purito
Contador
Pinot
Nibali

Stage 13: Majka faster on the last climb
Stage 14: After entire day in a breakaway. The group starts final 12.6km climb slightly less than 1 minute before Pinot. 10.5km to go: 40s gap from Majka to Pinot. 9km to go, Majka joins De Marchi. still 40s gap Pretty much at this point Majka goes solo while Pinot sucks wheels. The gap at the finish: 50s
Stage 15: Sprint stage
Stage 16: Majka rests. Not a blistering pace on this stage
Stage 17: Entire day in the break, hits the climb 1:55 before Pinot. At 8.6km: 1:15. Majka goes at 8km, wheelsucked by Purito who refuses to cooperate. Slows down, then chases Schelck, attacks again at 7.5. Then rides solo entire way (small pull from spent Roche and Visconti). Pinot wheelsucks until he gets dropped. Then he pulls. Results: Majka wins by 1:40 despite celebrating for last 1km.
Stage 18: Majka stays with leaders. Nibali attacks with 10.5km to go 1st attack by Majka, 2nd attack at 8km, drops everyone. Rides similar pace to Nibali but not going to catch him so sits up. Then gets outsprinted by Pinot.

Seriously, Majka was better in mountains than Pinot

 

[DenisMenchov]

Re: Re:

1. AC
2. CF
3. NQ
4. RM
5. VN

honorable mentions AV, TvG, TP, RB, PR, BM (?!), JA, JR

Is it
1. Contador = AC
2. Froome = CF
3. Quintana = NQ
4. Majka = RM
5. Nibali = VN

Honorable mentions:
Valverde = AV
van Garderen = TvG
Pinot = TP
Bardet = RB
? = PR
? = BM
? = JA
Rodriguez = JR


What are the others?

PR= Pierre Rolland
BM=Bauke Mollema
JA= Julian Alaphilippe
JR= Joaquin Rodriguez

I would have said JA = Julián Arredondo

I had Arrendondo in mind, but would also like Alaphilippe to crack the TOP10, so JAx2

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re: Re:

1. AC
2. CF
3. NQ
4. RM
5. VN

honorable mentions AV, TvG, TP, RB, PR, BM (?!), JA, JR

Is it
1. Contador = AC
2. Froome = CF
3. Quintana = NQ
4. Majka = RM
5. Nibali = VN

Honorable mentions:
Valverde = AV
van Garderen = TvG
Pinot = TP
Bardet = RB
? = PR
? = BM
? = JA
Rodriguez = JR


What are the others?

PR= Pierre Rolland
BM=Bauke Mollema
JA= Julian Alaphilippe
JR= Joaquin Rodriguez

Thanks!

 

[Tonton]

Strange Libertine Seguros hasn't proposed Juan Arango yet .

 

[Fernandez]

I bet for five astanas un top five

 

[Miburo]

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Contador will not win the Tour.

I am surprised at people thinking with their hearts.

Not sure who will win it.

So your prediction is that you aren't sure?

I am sure is not Contador.

Gut feeling.... Contador will win.
I said this months ago I cannot see anyone else winning (stupid I know, I know it's a possibility but I cannot see it)
Froome is too vulnerable and has not been super since TDF 2013. He will lose time in the first week.
Quintana is not yet on Fwoome and Berto's climbing level and will probably lose time in the first week.
Nibali I cannot see him pull it off again, he won't be so lucky this time.
That leaves Berto or a complete surprise
But I should say in 2011 I also "could not see" anyone but Berto winning

Sorry Flor, I also said few months ago that he never should have raced the Giro if he wanted to win.

If he wins I'll bow to his greatness!

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

I don't believe that.

I have seen worse occasions including him where he has risen to the top after an accident.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

Perhaps it hindered him mentally, but he still would have lost. Andy and Evans were stronger that year, especially evident on the Sierre Chevalier stage.

 

[Rollthedice]

Contador won't win, Froome will not finish, Quintana will be in the top 5 same as Pinot and Nibali will be on the podium. The other rider to be among the five best will be Purito.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Contador won't win, Froome will not finish, Quintana will be in the top 5 same as Pinot and Nibali will be on the podium. The other rider to be among the five best will be Purito.

Who wins?

 

[Queens Boulevard]

It'd probably be better to wait until the start of the tour for this as so many things could change. Froome is the wildcard so far out, because depending on the Dauphine he could have the confidence and momentum to come in and smash the tour by 6 minutes or he might DNF stage 4. You just never know where he's at and even when you do all it takes is a slight wind shift and he goes from great to garbage. But picking winners is fun so...

1. Nibali - 2 years in a row he has peaked spectacularly for the race which he has targeted, and this course suits him okay.
2. Quintana - I'm still a doubter I guess, just not sure he can beat a field as strong as this one, though he'll come close
3. Purito - I like him on this course. Valverde is better, but he'll have to keep his ambitions in check for Quintana.
4. Contador - Classiest rider in the world, and if he didn't have the Giro in his legs he'd take the top step of the podium easily. Could still grab 2nd or 3rd but I think it more likely he'll crack himself trying to win this. Secondary placings are worthless to the Great One.
5. Tejay - When he's had the proper build up to the Tour he's done quite well and he's proven he can handle the rigors of a grand tour.

Froome - DNF. It's either feast or famine for Sky it seams in grand tours. I'm putting famine at about 70%
Majka, Bardet, Talansky - All fun riders. Another year to get to know them better. Majka is hampered a bit by having to help Contador attempt history
Pinot - Probably right there with Tejay around that top 5 spot but I'm a Tejay fan so I went with him.
Valverde - If 3rd through 8th are all within a minute or so he could be right up there despite his domestique duties. I doubt he and Quintana could both podium with this field but a top 5 isn't completely out of his reach I reckon.

 

[meat puppet]

If nibali improves proportionately to astana in the giro he should win it tranquillo. Otherwise quintana wins. This year's froome third, giro legged ac fourth. Pinot fifth.

Different ball game of course if froome summons 2012 or 2013.

 

[Miburo]

Purito has one issue though, cobblestones.

 

[phanatic]

Re:

Contador won't win, Froome will not finish, Quintana will be in the top 5 same as Pinot and Nibali will be on the podium. The other rider to be among the five best will be Purito.

Quintana, Contador, Nibali, Purito and Pinot?

 

[movingtarget]

Froome, Nibali, Contador, Quintana and TJVG.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

Perhaps it hindered him mentally, but he still would have lost. Andy and Evans were stronger that year, especially evident on the Sierre Chevalier stage.

He got a knee injury, don't forget.

 

[Walkman]

Re: Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

Perhaps it hindered him mentally, but he still would have lost. Andy and Evans were stronger that year, especially evident on the Sierre Chevalier stage.

He got a knee injury, don't forget.

In all honesty, how bad could it have been when you can race 200+ km every day in all kinds of conditions and still compete with the best?

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re: Re:

1. AC
2. CF
3. NQ
4. RM
5. VN

honorable mentions AV, TvG, TP, RB, PR, BM (?!), JA, JR

Is it
1. Contador = AC
2. Froome = CF
3. Quintana = NQ
4. Majka = RM
5. Nibali = VN

Honorable mentions:
Valverde = AV
van Garderen = TvG
Pinot = TP
Bardet = RB
? = PR
? = BM
? = JA
Rodriguez = JR


What are the others?

PR= Pierre Rolland
BM=Bauke Mollema
JA= Julian Alaphilippe
JR= Joaquin Rodriguez

I would have said JA = Julián Arredondo

I had Arrendondo in mind, but would also like Alaphilippe to crack the TOP10, so JAx2

Alaphilippe is doing Vuelta I think not the TdF

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

In all honesty, how bad could it have been when you can race 200+ km every day in all kinds of conditions and still compete with the best?

Oh man

Must resist

Must not post pic of Alberto in grey undies showing his knee

T-Nielsen would kill me

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Purito has one issue though, cobblestones.

He didn't lost that much time back in 2010. He was in the group with Gesink and Basso, and about 1 minute behind Contador.

And he has got more experience now (although last year he was just cruising on the cobblestones )

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I cant believe my eyes, so many people believe in Giro-Tour double, situation has changed here, I remember the general opinion was opposite ..interesting

It's quite interesting really. Basically Contador has been good enough in this Giro to convince many he's still the best. I'm actually on the opposite side of the argument though. I never doubted his ability, but I think the energy he's had to expend in the Giro will be to much for him.

Unfortunately we've not really had the top 4 race against each other without crashes to know who's truly the best. But I just don't believe Contador is enough above the other 3 to beat them with a Giro in his legs. And to be quite honest I don't think anyone should be that good. Remember the last guy who did the Giro-Tour double wasn't exactly a paragon of clean cycling.

As I said I think it's really hard to know who's the best right now. I think under perfect conditions in the high mountains it's probably Contador/Quintana > Froome > Nibali. But the gaps are very small. And considering Froome is the best in TT and Nibali seems most complete (descents/cobbles) and both of them have very strong teams it's nigh impossible to predict what will happen.

That being said, excluding crashes, I reckon it will be something like:
1. Quintana (the lack of time trials strongly favours Quintana).
2. Froome (in the end I think he's going to be the 2nd best climber considering Contador has a Giro in his legs).
3. Nibali (he won't lose that much in the mountains, and he could be higher if he takes time in odd stages).
4. Contador (I just think he'll be too tired to take the top 3, and of course he'll try to win, which could cost him time).
5. Rodriguez (the lack of TT's favours him as much as Quintana, as do the punchy stages, I just think he's to old to challenge the likes of Quintana).

Honestly though, I don't think anyone will really know until La Pierre Saint Martin at the earliest.

Bumping this excellent post

I will add my opinion when the time is right (which is not during the Giro)

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

Perhaps it hindered him mentally, but he still would have lost. Andy and Evans were stronger that year, especially evident on the Sierre Chevalier stage.

He got a knee injury, don't forget.

In all honesty, how bad could it have been when you can race 200+ km every day in all kinds of conditions and still compete with the best?

It's just too hard for some people to admit that Evans rode a great race and deserved to win.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I'm still convinced that contador would have won the tour in 2011 if he didn't lose time in stage 1 and crashed later on.

It put him in a terrible GC position. Otherwise he could have just cruished until the alpe.

Destroy evans and win it.

Perhaps it hindered him mentally, but he still would have lost. Andy and Evans were stronger that year, especially evident on the Sierre Chevalier stage.

He got a knee injury, don't forget.

OTOH we dont know how serious