Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Contador will be lucky to be in the top 5.
Froome? If his mind is as frail as Porte's...

1. Nibali
2. Quintana
3. Pinot
4. Contador
5. Valverde

DNF Froome

Nibali? Umm, this TDF has real competition present. Nibali isn't even in the same class of climber as Froome, Contador and Quintana.

Nibali only wins when no real contenders are present.

Not sure I am following...

So what you are saying is that despite having hard evidence (mihhint's data) that Nibali was by far the best climber in the Tour since 2009, by knowing that he is great tactically, a 'pure' racer, and after seeing the show he put on a cobbles destroying every contender by at least 2:30 you are still saying that Nibali isn't the same class as those you mentioned???

Is that what you were trying to say? And among those who mentioned you have a guy who won a GT once, a guy who was a distant runner-up in that GT and needed Stelvio-gate to beat Uran in Giro (the same Uran that Nibali absolutely destroyed). Not sure I follow your logic

I think the apprehension that many have about Nibali is the fact that he hasn't shown this level of dominance anywhere other than in 2014 Tour, and only on the one stage versus the elite gc contenders. There has been no evidence of that same level before or since.

Giro 2013

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

 

[VeloCity]

I'm totally puzzled by the way a lot of people in here tend to forget how in the last mountain stage of this 2015 Giro, Contador was dropped by the likes of freakin' Hesjedal.
He won grand total of ZERO stages. He never looked amazing in the mountains (except in the Mortirolo...sort of).
And it will be his second GT.
Call it wishful thinking.

Could just as easily mean that AC wasn't even at tip-top form in the Giro, aiming to peak for the TdF, and yet he still won.

Besides, what exactly has Nibali done so far this year? He was terrible at Tirreno and 10th overall and 1:30 behind Froome on GC at Romandie is not exactly inspiring.

Re: top choices for TdF, 7 mountain stages with 5 summit finishes but only one very short ITT and one short-ish TTT, gotta go with Quintana. If he's on climbing form just can't see anywhere that Froome or Contador will be able to gain significant chunks of time. IMO, and barring crashes, illness, or other misfortune, it should be a battle between Quintana, Froome, and Contador.

Is Porte riding the Tour? Curious to see if he rebounds.

 

[damian13ster]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Double posting

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

@Eagle
I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite, along with Nibali. I just can't commit to endorsing him as being above his 3 rivals. At this moment I'd give the edge to Froome as the likely Tour winner if he can stay off the asphalt. One crash, no matter how minimal his physical injuries, and he's toast with his fragile anatomy. Contador, as much as I would like it if he won, hasn't the support necessary plus his opponents are fully rested. The Giro was just too taxing IMO for him to be able to have the form to take the top step. I believe he will podium though, using his experience, determination and guile. Nibali will have to build his gap on the cobbled stage again to have a chance, but I don't think it will happen. Quintana will complete the podium by taking time on Nibali in the mountains.

 

[damian13ster]

Really not sure which part is yours. Nevertheless.
I also see Froome as a favorite if nothing bad happens to him in the first week. He is the best climber as shown in Tour 2013, and has good acceleration as well which will be helpfull with this route.
But the 2nd favorite is Nibali. Doesn't have the kick, but there is cobbled stage and his climbing both in Giro 2013 and Tour 2014 was ridiculous. If he takes 2 minutes on Froome on the cobbles then he becomes main favorite.
Contador is spent and not in shape. Was there ever a season in which he performed badly but then improved substantially? Being dropped by Landa on every single stage on which Mikel was allowed to attack (even if he then had to wait) and getting dropped hard is not a good indicator. And this time there isn't a long TT that doesn't suit his competitors to save his ass. I wouldn't be shocked to see him out of the podium. I kind of expect that.

And don't even get me started on Quintana. Came nowhere close to Froome in 2013 (the gap was huuuugge), in Giro against a weak field (comparable if not weaker than Nibali had in 2013) he was bad, bad enough to need Stelvio controversy to win. He hasn't shown at all that he is elite. There is top 3 and then there is Quintana who has the chance to reach that level.
I think he can top 3 this Tour behind Froome and Nibali but wouldn't be shocked if he finishes outside of a podium as well depending how the cobble-stage goes and how far behind he is after first week.

 

[AlexNYC]

Quintana didn't need Stelvio to win the 2014 Giro; the only way you could truly believe that is if you didn't follow the race and are basing your opinion on the stage reports afterwards. After getting the pink jersey, Quintana pretty much limited himself to controlling the race. He could have won a number of the MTF stages in the last week had he really wanted too.

 

[May0maniac]

1. Quintana
2. Froome (If he's able to avoid crashes)
3. Nibali (could end up even higher)
4. Contador (Yes he wasn't at his best at the Giro, but every stag was ridden very hard and a hard Giro will wear you out, he could go for long range attacks and try to make the race really chaotic and that would make the race very entertaining)
5. That's a good question, Purito could have a great Tour, Pinot seems to be very strong and Talansky has the right mindset and would go for long range attacks, I just don't know how great his form is, his early season was a desaster but Dauphine will show us a little bit more about his form.

 

[ray j willings]

FFS Froome had no healthy competition in 2013,,,The up and coming Quintana dropped him.
Froome always has a bad day or 2.
He was full boar at last years Dauphine and could not drop Bertie. Bertie has quicker times up the Ventoux.
But I am not confident that Bertie will be in top form after the Giro.
Quintana on the other hand I expect to be in top form and he will drop Froome on at least 2 mountains and gain some serious time.
Froome has never won anything against healthy competition "rivals on good form"

You Froome fans will be in for a disappointment come the tour. There will be early attacks
on the climbing stages. Froome will have to look at his stem and do what he did at the Vuleta to limit damage.
Its easy to look good against no rivals and 2013 was a long time ago .

Bertie beat him in the TT early this year and dropped him as well, remember that?
This is my opinion , which I am entitled to. If your upset "froome fan boys"
then please ignore.if you want to make some grown up responses then I am happy to respond if need be.

 

[Gigs_98]

I'm totally puzzled by the way a lot of people in here tend to forget how in the last mountain stage of this 2015 Giro, Contador was dropped by the likes of freakin' Hesjedal.
He won grand total of ZERO stages. He never looked amazing in the mountains (except in the Mortirolo...sort of).
And it will be his second GT.
Call it wishful thinking.

Could just as easily mean that AC wasn't even at tip-top form in the Giro, aiming to peak for the TdF, and yet he still won.

Besides, what exactly has Nibali done so far this year? He was terrible at Tirreno and 10th overall and 1:30 behind Froome on GC at Romandie is not exactly inspiring.

Re: top choices for TdF, 7 mountain stages with 5 summit finishes but only one very short ITT and one short-ish TTT, gotta go with Quintana. If he's on climbing form just can't see anywhere that Froome or Contador will be able to gain significant chunks of time. IMO, and barring crashes, illness, or other misfortune, it should be a battle between Quintana, Froome, and Contador.

Is Porte riding the Tour? Curious to see if he rebounds.

What did we see last year from nibali before the tour? A bad dauphine a bad tour de romandie,...
The shape before the tdf itself doesn't count at all and now please don't tell me nibali wouldn't have had a chance if AC and froome didn't crash. Of course its possible that one of those riders had won the tour if the hadn't abandoned but Nibali was already 2 minutes in front before the big mountains and the fact that he always was the strongest one on the mtf´s shows that AC and froome would have had huge problems to beat vincenzo.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

You mean just like Berto dropped Nibali on stage 8 of last year's Tour?

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I am at a loss as to why everyone seems to think Quintana is part of the elite group with Contador and Froome, but many do not think Nibali is. Nibali has shown much, much more to indicate he belongs with Contador and Froome than has Quintana. If Quintana wins or shows well in this Tour, I will grant him that status, but based on achievements, it surely goes Contador >>>> Nibali >> Froome (who I would place ahead of Nibali based on his dominance, outside of crashes, and wasted strength supporting Wiggins) >> Quintana. Quintana has a first in a Giro against a weak field and a second in a Tour in which Contador was off his game, Nibali wasn't there, and Froome completely demolished him. Furthermore, the only time Froome has looked human since like 2011 is when he has crashed. Other than that, he has clearly been the best. Contador is wily and a fighter. Unless he was truly training through the Giro and aiming to peak at the Tour, I just don't see him beating Froome, Nibali AND Quintana, as much as I'd like it.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

You mean just like Berto dropped Nibali on stage 8 of last year's Tour?

I am a Contador fan, too, if maybe a slightly more pessimistic one (probably to protect myself from disappointment), but that didn't seem like anything to point to to me. That'd be like if Contador had crashed out of the Giro after a weak and everyone said Aru would have beaten him anyways because he gapped him by a second on that uphill sprint...

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

You mean just like Berto dropped Nibali on stage 8 of last year's Tour?

That was a 1,8km at 10,3% climb, you can't compare that to a high mountain stage, just look at the La Zubia stage in the Vuelta when Valverde beat Froome and Contador, it's hard to compare such a short effort at high intensity to a real climb in the high mountains, Nibali isn't as explosive as Contador.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

I absolutely agree with you, but it has to be noted that the Giro was Nibali's big peak that year and that he didn't get a single win for the rest of the year, whereas Contador's biggest peak is for the Tour. If Contador had planned to bring his absolute best to the Giro like in '11, I have no doubt he would've won it like back then or at least as comfortable as Nibali did.

I will also say that the Astana duo this year would've crushed Evans and Uran of '13.

 

[damian13ster]

Re:

Quintana didn't need Stelvio to win the 2014 Giro; the only way you could truly believe that is if you didn't follow the race and are basing your opinion on the stage reports afterwards. After getting the pink jersey, Quintana pretty much limited himself to controlling the race. He could have won a number of the MTF stages in the last week had he really wanted too.

I still don't understand the assumption that everyone is making.
Could have, would have. You are saying that he could easily win stages but CHOSE not to? That's insane.
What would he be saving energy for? Why would a rider who has a chance of winning stages and prove that he won because he was the strongest and not because of the action by race director choose not to?
That's nonsense

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

When I saw the uphill TT Mori-Polsa when he put one minute into second placed Samu I understood that he's at a whole new level with Astana. Unfortunately Sir Brad, the reigning TdF winner did not finish that Giro so that everybody see where Nibs was at that point in his career. The remaining contenders, sure were not at a very high level, something Contador experienced in this year Giro. The difference was that Nibs won that Giro breathing only through his nose.

I absolutely agree with you, but it has to be noted that the Giro was Nibali's big peak that year and that he didn't get a single win for the rest of the year, whereas Contador's biggest peak is for the Tour. If Contador had planned to bring his absolute best to the Giro like in '11, I have no doubt he would've won it like back then or at least as comfortable as Nibali did.

I will also say that the Astana duo this year would've crushed Evans and Uran of '13.

Indeed, Contador was supposed to win easily this Giro with an average form if not for the Astana Bros. and all Vino's atomic boys. He won it almost on his own, unfortunately needing to dig deeper than planned and this brings us to the question if he will be capable to recover and peak to win the race against much harder competition.

 

[Miburo]

It seems some here can see the future and assume this landa is nothing compared to the other big 3.

You don't know, you can't know. Stop assuming you think you do.

Contador and landa were another level compared to the rest, finestre was a bad day of contador, bad days happen. Even Merckx, the greatest ever had a bad day.

It's hilarious to say contador is done as a rider, as the damionfellow says.

Look back at stage 8 of the tour last year, just look back at it. And look how contador was.

I can bring up everything of 2014, contador destroyed it. But that moment says enough.

 

[ILovecycling]

Nibali is much less explosive than Froome and Contador, so he will be dropped on the hills, but he can ride at insane pace for a very long time so high mountains and long climbs will suit him. I highly doubt he will be dropped for good there. The question is whether performance on a cobbles will be enough to offset 20-30 seconds in total that he will lose in stages that end with short hills.
Will be interesting one for sure. For me he is the 2nd favorite behind Froome

Thats for sure that Nibs and Nairo will be dropped for a while because their accleration is very bad in comparison with Froome and Contador.I think they can even help themselfs in pacing each other until they catch the duo again.
OTOH Im not sure how Quintana and Nibali will drop the other two, they can only do that by riding hard pace for very long time which is a big disadvantage.

The same way he was dropping people at the Tour. Tiring them out and then even a small acceleration is deadly. Or just riding them off the wheel.

you mean Pinot and Peraud?

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

I don't think of the 2013 Evans as an elite gc contender at that point in his career nor is Uran. Contador, Froome, and Quintana are the current elite.

The competition was at least as good if not better than in Giro 2014. And Nibali was absolutely untouchable, destroyed everyone with ease while Quintana needed Stelvio-gate to win against very similar field, yet the latter is seen as a favorite but not Nibali?

Lol you are so mighty ridiculous...I see you dont have an avatar, but let make some bet about 'weak'Quintana beating 'untouchable' Nibali , I dont care if signature,avatar or something but I really want know if those bullshits you mean seriously

 

[SeriousSam]

damian13ster is right about one thing. Based on purely on accomplishments, Nibali has shown more than Quintana. His Giro win was superior, and his performance in the 2014 Tour was obviously vastly superior to Quintana's 2013.

Yet, I still rate Quintana higher for this Tour. Cos he's young, he's prodigiously talented, and he has a living legend of cycling riding along side him in his team. Projecting his improvements somewhat optimistically, he'll climb better than Nibali.

 

[Walkman]

Re:

damian13ster is right about one thing. Based on purely on accomplishments, Nibali has shown more than Quintana. His Giro win was superior, and his performance in the 2014 Tour was obviously vastly superior to Quintana's 2013.

Yet, I still rate Quintana higher for this Tour. Cos he's young, he's prodigiously talented, and he has a convicted cheater who knows "what's up" of cycling riding along side him in his team. Projecting his improvements somewhat optimistically, he'll climb better than Nibali.

Fixed it for you!

 

[SeriousSam]

The nature of his conviction was such that the benefit he can provide his young companion with is no worse than the benefit unconvicted cheaters in other teams can provide their star riders with.

But that's not what I was talking about, anyway. Having a co-leader/wildcard as strong as Valverde is simply an advantage. Though I guess Astana might yet conjure another Landa out of thin air, and with Froome controlling the angry Tasmanian, it's only Contador who has no one.

 

[Pantani_lives]

I just hope for Quintana having Valverde in his team won't turn out to be a disadvantage.