Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[barmaher]

In the Team Time Trial, he will lose between 1 minute and 2 minutes to the top dogs in BMC, Sky, Astana, Movistar and Tinkoff.

Added to the likely 30s to 60s he will likely lose in the ITT, he is on the back foot. It is also hard to imagine him staying with Nibali on the cobbles.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

on work computer and it won't let me look at betting sites, has pinot's performance in tour de Suisse impacted on his odds? and how much time does he lose in the TTT?

Not much. He was behind TJ before. Some sites show him better than TJ now. Always trailing behind the big four. So his chances are almost the same I think. His results from Tour de Suisse were expected IMHO.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Of course it's way to early to really say. If all come in top form:
1. AC
2. Froome
3. Quintana
4. Nibali
5. Pinot

There is no way that they all 4 are going to be in top 5. That's a more unlikely than the scenario that it's not on of the big 4 who is going to win.

You seem to be quite certain. Why is it not possible?

He's just talking nonsense. The most likely top 4 is one that includes all of the "big 4".

 

[barmaher]

Of course it is.

Saying that the most likely Top 4 is the Big 4 does not mean that you think it is more likely than not to happen.

I would say it is maybe 10 to 15% likely that the Top 4 are CF/NQ/AC/VN in any order. But if you replace any of those riders with another rider, the probability drops down to < 5% I would say.

 

[Taxus4a]

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

Giro-Tour =/= Tour-Vuelta

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

on work computer and it won't let me look at betting sites, has pinot's performance in tour de Suisse impacted on his odds? and how much time does he lose in the TTT?

Not really, because his odds to win the Tour are tiny to begin with.

 

[ninjadriver]

Re:

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

Interesting comparison, Taxus, regarding Valverde's 2014 TDF/Vuelta vs. Contador's 2015 Giro/TDF, however, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion, because:

1. Valverde finished almost 10 minutes down in the 2014 TDF, while Contador labored like a mule to hang on and WIN the 2015 Giro, getting dropped by Landa, then Aru, then Landa again, then Aru again (something like that). Contador didn't finish 10 minutes down (although had they raced another 2 mountaintop finishes, he might have).

2. Neither Contador nor Froome was anywhere near his peak at the 2014 Vuelta, which otherwise had an exceptionally weak GC field (J-Rod was about it).

3. Racing the weaker-fielded Vuelta as the 2nd of the back-to-back tours on tired legs is a lot easier than riding the strongest-fielded and fastest paced TDF as the 2nd tour.

As I've said previously, I give Contador ZERO SHOT to win the TDF. I give him a marginal shot of even making the podium. I hope he runs into (non-health) trouble, abandons, and then goes on to win the Vuelta. It'll be Froome vs. Nibali, with Quintana barking if he can TT and his team can TTT.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

Interesting comparison, Taxus, regarding Valverde's 2014 TDF/Vuelta vs. Contador's 2015 Giro/TDF, however, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion, because:

1. Valverde finished almost 10 minutes down in the 2014 TDF, while Contador labored like a mule to hang on and WIN the 2015 Giro, getting dropped by Landa, then Aru, then Landa again, then Aru again (something like that). Contador didn't finish 10 minutes down (although had they raced another 2 mountaintop finishes, he might have).

2. Neither Contador nor Froome was anywhere near his peak at the 2014 Vuelta, which otherwise had an exceptionally weak GC field (J-Rod was about it).

3. Racing the weaker-fielded Vuelta as the 2nd of the back-to-back tours on tired legs is a lot easier than riding the strongest-fielded and fastest paced TDF as the 2nd tour.

As I've said previously, I give Contador ZERO SHOT to win the TDF. I give him a marginal shot of even making the podium. I hope he runs into (non-health) trouble, abandons, and then goes on to win the Vuelta. It'll be Froome vs. Nibali, with Quintana barking if he can TT and his team can TTT.

I dont compar performances or things like that, I just say that for Vaklverde Tour was his main objetive, he focus the season to be strong there, as Quintana did Giro, and Imo, just rainy days, especially in the first weak, put them out of the fight for yellow.

Later he won San sebastian, with very hot weather, and he showed a similar performance, or even better, with similar shape, in la Vuelta.

For Evans was similar.

Can anybody tell me why Giro-Tour is different than Tour Vuelta? Usually contenders are weakers in the Giro.

The only reason I found is that if you do Tour Vuelta in the Vuelta you will find people with another GT, Giro or Tour, except some exceptions as Horner, some spanish and some young people... But if Valverde or Puyrito or evans has showed he can be in Tour Vuelta al a hight level, and even be at Lombardia very strong, why is the reason to dont be strong in le Tour after Giro?

it is mentally demanding, it is maybe not at the reach of everybody, it is not at the reach of anybody in the first attemp (as we see with Froome in his Tour -Vuelta (anyway he was 4th)

if Valverde losed time on le Tour wanst becouse doent mean he didt focus his sahpe on le Tour or he didnt get the same tired than Nibali. it was a demanding Tour for him with the rain.
Rigoberto wanst at his level in this Giro, but he train to be there at his best, and for him meybe to start with an Ilness made the Giro more demanding phisically than for Contador.

And I think that if now Rigo found himself very nice, he is without pressure,. if he is lucky and he found a good situation in GC just for the circusntances (as landa in the Giro) he could be with the best in the climbs.

I think that not everybody can do that double at hbis bnest shape, of coruse Valverde yes, Purito similar, and I think contador is one of those (Froome as well), but Tour si a demanding race with the best in the best shape...For him to had the Giro is maybe a bit more challenging, but as well is less pressure, and as he always like, more remarcable if he win, as he and press did in la Vuelta.

The problem is Froome, Quintana, Nibali and maybe more people, not the Giro, and it will be the same without the Giro, or very similar, with more pressure.

 

[Taxus4a]

To sum up what I mean, anybody think that Valverde could have beated Contador and frome if he would have rode le Tour?
He was 3th, but forst days he was doing stupid attacks and avoiding bonus.

Maybe he would have been fresher and he would have beated them, but it is not very likely, and tour is more demanding than Giro, especially one wiith rain, crashes, pavé and a long ITT at the end.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Of course it is.

Saying that the most likely Top 4 is the Big 4 does not mean that you think it is more likely than not to happen.

I would say it is maybe 10 to 15% likely that the Top 4 are CF/NQ/AC/VN in any order. But if you replace any of those riders with another rider, the probability drops down to < 5% I would say.

+1.

The probability of picking somebody else actually drops higher than 5% depending on the quality and the amount of outsiders.

There is at least 25% that you will miss the one from the big four that will be outside of top 5.

 

[durtyfat]

1. Froome
2. Quintana
3. Nibali
4. Contador
5. Hesjedal
I believe that the the cobble stage and the hard 3rd week of this TDF will give an advantage for Hesjedal over some other contenders

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

Interesting comparison, Taxus, regarding Valverde's 2014 TDF/Vuelta vs. Contador's 2015 Giro/TDF, however, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion, because:

1. Valverde finished almost 10 minutes down in the 2014 TDF, while Contador labored like a mule to hang on and WIN the 2015 Giro, getting dropped by Landa, then Aru, then Landa again, then Aru again (something like that). Contador didn't finish 10 minutes down (although had they raced another 2 mountaintop finishes, he might have).

2. Neither Contador nor Froome was anywhere near his peak at the 2014 Vuelta, which otherwise had an exceptionally weak GC field (J-Rod was about it).

3. Racing the weaker-fielded Vuelta as the 2nd of the back-to-back tours on tired legs is a lot easier than riding the strongest-fielded and fastest paced TDF as the 2nd tour.

As I've said previously, I give Contador ZERO SHOT to win the TDF. I give him a marginal shot of even making the podium. I hope he runs into (non-health) trouble, abandons, and then goes on to win the Vuelta. It'll be Froome vs. Nibali, with Quintana barking if he can TT and his team can TTT.

There's always a chance Nibali, Froome and Quintana crash out and Pinot and Rodriguez lose 10 minutes at one point. Zero shot? There's always a slight chance.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

I read lot of people that says contador cant win Tour de France becouse he should be tired after Giro...
I see this:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=5&year=2014&all=1&current=0

and valverde was even stronger in la Vuelta than in the Giro, and he won San Sebastian between both and he was second in Lombardia.

Of course is good to be fresh as Horner was in la Vuelta, but it supossed than Contador wanst at his best in Tirreno or la Volta, so i think that Giro is not very bad, he didnt ride a lot at hius best...

I dont see difference when Froome win Oman, second in Tirreno, (but he showed a hight level, the best), CI, Romandie and Dauphiné, is it not that to be tired?

Interesting comparison, Taxus, regarding Valverde's 2014 TDF/Vuelta vs. Contador's 2015 Giro/TDF, however, I respectfully disagree with your conclusion, because:

1. Valverde finished almost 10 minutes down in the 2014 TDF, while Contador labored like a mule to hang on and WIN the 2015 Giro, getting dropped by Landa, then Aru, then Landa again, then Aru again (something like that). Contador didn't finish 10 minutes down (although had they raced another 2 mountaintop finishes, he might have).

2. Neither Contador nor Froome was anywhere near his peak at the 2014 Vuelta, which otherwise had an exceptionally weak GC field (J-Rod was about it).

3. Racing the weaker-fielded Vuelta as the 2nd of the back-to-back tours on tired legs is a lot easier than riding the strongest-fielded and fastest paced TDF as the 2nd tour.

As I've said previously, I give Contador ZERO SHOT to win the TDF. I give him a marginal shot of even making the podium. I hope he runs into (non-health) trouble, abandons, and then goes on to win the Vuelta. It'll be Froome vs. Nibali, with Quintana barking if he can TT and his team can TTT.

How much time do you think he Nairo will lose in a 13.8k time trial, less than 30 seconds imo to the other GC contenders.

 

[LaFlorecita]

30 to 40s imo
Add another 10 on Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne (he must hope Froome and/or Contador don't get bonus seconds) and you're up to a minute
Max 1 minute in the TTT
But the real challenges will be stage 2 and 4.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

To sum up what I mean, anybody think that Valverde could have beated Contador and frome if he would have rode le Tour?
He was 3th, but forst days he was doing stupid attacks and avoiding bonus.

Maybe he would have been fresher and he would have beated them, but it is not very likely, and tour is more demanding than Giro, especially one wiith rain, crashes, pavé and a long ITT at the end.

But Vuelta is levels below Tour in terms of hardness (as the 2nd GT of the year for 1 rider)

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

Add another 10 on Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne (he must hope Froome and/or Contador don't get bonus seconds)

Are there are intermediary sprint bonus seconds on that stage I'm not aware of? True, Nairo better watch out for those

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Can anybody tell me why Giro-Tour is different than Tour Vuelta? Usually contenders are weakers in the Giro.

Mainly because of tradicion of Giro significantly bigger then Vuelta, which compared to giro is a 2nd tier GC
and like someone said Tour After Giro is worse then Vuelta after Tour

when big GC guys are making plains for season they are forucing on Tour on Giro (more of them for Tour)
then some of them maybe Vuelta if form will be good, noone big is gioing to put all season on Vuelta
names in last years were maybe bigger on Vuelta then on giro but their form not even close to top of season

like last year top 6 riders which were there: Quintana, Rodriguez, Aru : they put season on Giro, vuelta as 2nd race with giro in legs and lower strenght
Froome, Contador would never went to Vuelta if they did not crashed from tour and on Vuelta they were able to won even with significantly lower form
Valverde: 3rd on Vuelta after 4th on tour beaten by Pinot and Bardet, lower riders then Purito or Aru in Giro form

2013 same story : Nibali after giro with worse performance, Purito Valve tired after tour

and same other years so field of Vuelta is really not giro field even with names like last year

 

[bassano]

Re:

30 to 40s imo
Add another 10 on Mur de Huy and Mur de Bretagne (he must hope Froome and/or Contador don't get bonus seconds) and you're up to a minute
Max 1 minute in the TTT
But the real challenges will be stage 2 and 4.

Froome and Contador have only few chances to get bonuses on Huy (if you are talking about Huy) Purito and Valve are good for that
and I also do not believe Froome will be better then Quintana on Huy they are quite even on such short climb IMHO quite worse then Nibs or Contador both of them

 

[SeriousSam]

Out of the Big 4, I expect Nibali and Quintana to be the worst at the Mur. But I don't expect any of the Big 4 to try and get time on the others there. Will be going to the finish holding their hands in peaceful camaraderie.

 

[nelsonsmen71]

I love threads like this on the TDF as people always forget its SPORT which in its self means anyone can and DOES beat anyone. The TDF and road cycling is even more indicative of this point. Riders can be kicked out for the unmentionable. They can crash out anywhere from the cobbles to the descents. They can burn out, they can have illnesses. They can mentally give up. Some lesser favourites can and HAVE virtually every year worn yellow then unexpectantly to their own form ride out of their own skins ( The unforgettable Tommy Voeckler ) Riders can have flat tyres, lose their team mates, miss pedal turns, fall of a mountain, race over nails left on road by sabateurs, take the wrong turn and ride over a field, get food poisoning, this list could go on n on................................ Its the TDF, most of us have given a Top 5 but none of us will be right as we can not predict who will suffer the unpredictable, its why we love and why the world loves the TDF, its the best competitive race, in any sport in the world Ps 11 days to go !!!!

 

[SeriousSam]

Actually, the chance none of us will be right is small. And the chance none of us has posted a top 5 that gets, say, 3 out of the 5 right, is extremely small.

The outcome is very predictable. The winner won't be resulting from a random permutation of the start list. It will be one of F, Q, N, C, with high probability. If we extent that set of riders by just a few names, we can be overwhelmingly confident to have the eventual winner in there. The same goes for the top5, and the top 10. It's just not as random and unpredictable as you make it seem.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Can anybody tell me why Giro-Tour is different than Tour Vuelta? Usually contenders are weakers in the Giro.

Mainly because of tradicion of Giro significantly bigger then Vuelta, which compared to giro is a 2nd tier GC
and like someone said Tour After Giro is worse then Vuelta after Tour

when big GC guys are making plains for season they are forucing on Tour on Giro (more of them for Tour)
then some of them maybe Vuelta if form will be good, noone big is gioing to put all season on Vuelta
names in last years were maybe bigger on Vuelta then on giro but their form not even close to top of season

like last year top 6 riders which were there: Quintana, Rodriguez, Aru : they put season on Giro, vuelta as 2nd race with giro in legs and lower strenght
Froome, Contador would never went to Vuelta if they did not crashed from tour and on Vuelta they were able to won even with significantly lower form
Valverde: 3rd on Vuelta after 4th on tour beaten by Pinot and Bardet, lower riders then Purito or Aru in Giro form

2013 same story : Nibali after giro with worse performance, Purito Valve tired after tour

and same other years so field of Vuelta is really not giro field even with names like last year

I have seen cycling frm the begining of 80s.
I know of course all those arguments and the way you think.
But I dont agree,
Vuelta is more demanding becouse is at the end of the season.
Ask Aru if is more difficult to be on the podium of the Giro or the Vuelta.
It depends of the names, of course, and Giro use to have more demanding routes, but this Giro the route is similar.
Has anyone get the double Tour July-Vuelta September?
So, why is easier than Giro-Tour? it is depends of every season, but not as a rule.
Of course nobody of the big names focus from the begining just the Vuelta, but the same for the Giro, if you focus just on the Giro maybe is better later to choose Vuelta than Tour, but there are people than focus in the Vuelta and that way they do the Giro.
it is a question of situation in the calendar, but it is the same difficult to rest in August than to rest in June, in term of to keep shape.

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re:

Actually, the chance none of us will be right is small. And the chance none of us has posted a top 5 that gets, say, 3 out of the 5 right, is extremely small.

The outcome is very predictable. The winner won't be resulting from a random permutation of the start list. It will be one of F, Q, N, C, with high probability. If we extent that set of riders by just a few names, we can be overwhelmingly confident to have the eventual winner in there. The same goes for the top5, and the top 10. It's just not as random and unpredictable as you make it seem.

I hear what your saying but considering I am one of the only ones who has omitted one of the top 4 usual suspects in their Top 5 , ( I left Contador out ) that is why I say its very likely none of us are right. Your theory will only work if we all give 8 names ( say ) and out of those 8 names we get the Top 5 right in any order, but again back to the original thread we are guessing the Top 5 in the exact order, so your point fails. The reality is its probably easier to pick the winners of the jerseys than it is to get the Top 5 in exact order, just because one of F Q N or C is very likely either not going to finish or will be plugging on like a trooper despite an injury from a fall or something similar.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Actually, the chance none of us will be right is small. And the chance none of us has posted a top 5 that gets, say, 3 out of the 5 right, is extremely small.

The outcome is very predictable. The winner won't be resulting from a random permutation of the start list. It will be one of F, Q, N, C, with high probability. If we extent that set of riders by just a few names, we can be overwhelmingly confident to have the eventual winner in there. The same goes for the top5, and the top 10. It's just not as random and unpredictable as you make it seem.

I hear what your saying but considering I am one of the only ones who has omitted one of the top 4 usual suspects in their Top 5 , ( I left Contador out ) that is why I say its very likely none of us are right. Your theory will only work if we all give 8 names ( say ) and out of those 8 names we get the Top 5 right in any order, but again back to the original thread we are guessing the Top 5 in the exact order, so your point fails. The reality is its probably easier to pick the winners of the jerseys than it is to get the Top 5 in exact order, just because one of F Q N or C is very likely either not going to finish or will be plugging on like a trooper despite an injury from a fall or something similar.

Indeed trying to predict the top five in order is a very difficult task. But by putting different names other than the big four is an even harder task to predict. An your probabilities of getting right will be worse.