Predict the Top 5 GC in Tour de France

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Perhaps you should make clear what "Any crashes or sickness bet is off" means. Does it only count if he gets sick or crashes before the Tour and hence doesn't participate? Or also during the Tour? The last one makes little sense but if that's what you mean, then how severe does his crash or illness have to be for the bet to be void?

I am willing to agree that sickness or not, it is not reason to cancel bet, I said he will be top 10 and that include risk of sickness, minor crashes (e.g. porte in giro) is valverde response too
only reason from my side to cancelling bet is a big crash which will not allow Valverde to continue more then one day, it sounds fair enough
nelsonsmen agree?

 

[malakassis]

hi guys im new and dont know much about cycling but i have this feeling:

1. quintana (my favorite + best climber especially if several climbs in a stage)
2. nibali (dat "astana-bonus" + race smarts)
3. froome (although being a bot, hes got strong hardware)
4. purito (hes an old but tough one,parcours + timeboni favor him)
5. pinot (showed mountain strength in swizerland - but #5 is maximum considering his bad descenting skill)

contador in top 10 IF he finishes. hes a strong guy, but after this giro? dont forget, EPO-times are gone and hes already 32. even 2011 he faded against lower competition. i think he went for route du sud knowing he might be empty in TDF.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

hi guys im new and dont know much about cycling but i have this feeling:

1. quintana (my favorite + best climber especially if several climbs in a stage)
2. nibali (dat "astana-bonus" + race smarts)
3. froome (although being a bot, hes got strong hardware)
4. purito (hes an old but tough one,parcours + timeboni favor him)
5. pinot (showed mountain strength in swizerland - but #5 is maximum considering his bad descenting skill)

contador in top 10 IF he finishes. hes a strong guy, but after this giro? dont forget, EPO-times are gone and hes already 32. even 2011 he faded against lower competition. i think he went for route du sud knowing he might be empty in TDF.

In your very first post...

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The Mods

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

1. Bertie
2. Froome
3. Quintana
4. Nibs
5. TJ

Just a wild guess based on my limited cycling knowledge.

 

[pitchnduel]

Nairito
Froome
Contador
Teejay
Purito

 

[Akuryo]

As long as Zubeldia makes the top 10, I don't really care. I just want a good race and everybody to stay healthy.

 

[Ludwig's Olaf]

I still have to see Quintana as Moviestar's teamleader before I believe it. This skinny small guy isn't good on the cobbles or in the classics in general, and the team can pull him only so much. Now Valverde is the real universalist in the field, winning Grand Tours, classics, and was numerous times on the podium in world championships. Appears this tour is tailor-made for him. One sign of weakness by Quintana in the first week, he loses a couple of minutes, and he's gonna ride for Valverde. Moviestar did it before with Cobo, good for them to have GC options. Well, it's what I hope will take place, because I can't stand Quintana. "The best climber since Patani" is at best the most overrated talent.

 

[Cimber]

Its a tough one to call (and thats a great thing). Alot comes down to the first week. Both Contador and Froome shown weakness on the cobbles. And Froome has furthermore shown weakness in the chaotic crosswind stagess. Several of the stages in the first week could turn out to be brutal cross-wind stages, and Tinkoff-Saxo seems to have a strong lineup for those kind of stages.

Froome is my personal favorite, if the first week doesnt cost him a lot of time (and thats a big if). Contador and Nibali are smart rides, who arent afraid to do the unexpected. Quintana is ofcourse the big questionmark. Will be interesting to see what he do (I think he hopes for bad weather in the mountains). Pinot and TJ are wildcards.

Will be a great Tour (if we dont see as many crash-outs as last year)

 

[Miburo]

Contador can ride on the cobbles, he proved that in 2010, without frank's crash he would have been in the first group.

 

[Cimber]

Re:

Contador can ride on the cobbles, he proved that in 2010, without frank's crash he would have been in the first group.

True. But it was vs. the likes of Andy Schleck. Nibali seems to be better than Bertie on cobbles. However, Bertie might very well have the upper hand vs. Froome.

A lot comes down to the weather though.

 

[ebandit]

hear

Since I know more about who is riding the Tour now, I'm putting a new top5:
1. Hesjedal
2. Talansky
3. Dan Martin
4. Koren
5. Haas

here to see this...........i'm straight off to the bookies to get my bet on early

........more likely alberto
his nibs
nairo
da dawg
pinot

Mark L

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

I can't believe some people still saying this even in this day of age.

Nibali is a great climber but does not have the agility nor the body structure of Aru,Contador,Pantani,Schleck
That's why I said "not natural climber",I'm not talking about performances but phenotypes. He's more of a Passista-Scalatore...(I don't know if there is a similar english term..I've yet to find a translation)

 

[malakassis]

Re: Re:

Nibali is a great climber but does not have the agility nor the body structure of Aru,Contador,Pantani,Schleck
That's why I said "not natural climber",I'm not talking about performances but phenotypes. He's more of a Passista-Scalatore...(I don't know if there is a similar english term..I've yet to find a translation)

this is true.
pure climbers (scalatori puri) tour winners are very few: A.schleck 2010,sastre 2008, pantani 1998, delgado 1988, van impe 1976 and of course coppi.

its time to have a pure climber win again - this year is a good chance with few time trial. although i miss a real big mountain stage.

 

[SeriousSam]

Many of the riders that have been called Pure Climbers have a hard time winning because they aren't even the best climbers in addition to being hopeless in time trials. The time trialling GC climbers like Armstrong, Froome, Contador are better at everything

 

[JetSet]

1 Foome
2 Contador
3 Valverde
4 Nibali
5 Hesjedal

Pete

 

[nelsonsmen71]

Re: Re:

Perhaps you should make clear what "Any crashes or sickness bet is off" means. Does it only count if he gets sick or crashes before the Tour and hence doesn't participate? Or also during the Tour? The last one makes little sense but if that's what you mean, then how severe does his crash or illness have to be for the bet to be void?

I am willing to agree that sickness or not, it is not reason to cancel bet, I said he will be top 10 and that include risk of sickness, minor crashes (e.g. porte in giro) is valverde response too
only reason from my side to cancelling bet is a big crash which will not allow Valverde to continue more then one day, it sounds fair enough
nelsonsmen agree?

Bassano - like I said I am very happy for fairness to you that IF Valverde does not finish the race for ANY reason the bet is void? So that covers everything possible, if Valverde does not cross the line in Paris the bet is off. OK? good on ya!

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

As long as Zubeldia makes the top 10, I don't really care. I just want a good race and everybody to stay healthy.

Hopefully he wouldn't have to carry Mollema around like Ten Dam (who was clearly stronger) did last year.

 

[Velolover2]

My final bet:

1. One of the big 4
2. Pinot
3. One of the big 4
4. Purito
5. Simon Yates
6. Tejay
7. Bardet
8. One of the big 4
9. Zubeldia
10. Kelderman

DNF: One of the big 4

 

[djpbaltimore]

1) Contador
2) Froome
3) Nibali
4) Pinot
5) TJVG

 

[Pulpstar]

1 Frooooooooooooooooooooooome
2 Quintana
3 Nibali
4 Bardet
5 Contador

^_~

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

hi guys im new and dont know much about cycling but i have this feeling:

1. quintana (my favorite + best climber especially if several climbs in a stage)
2. nibali (dat "astana-bonus" + race smarts)
3. froome (although being a bot, hes got strong hardware)
4. purito (hes an old but tough one,parcours + timeboni favor him)
5. pinot (showed mountain strength in swizerland - but #5 is maximum considering his bad descenting skill)

contador in top 10 IF he finishes. hes a strong guy, but after this giro? dont forget, EPO-times are gone and hes already 32. even 2011 he faded against lower competition. i think he went for route du sud knowing he might be empty in TDF.

In this era when a rider has tried seriously in GC, Giro-Tour or Tour-Vuelta has showed similar level in both of them.

Already 32? I think he is in one of the best age to perform. He has chosen in his team people as Basso (37), Tossato (41), Rogers (35), who all of them rode the Giro.. so Giro and age is not a problem...

I think Alberto wont finish or he wont be the stronger, but nor for Giro or age.

2011 is a good reference for him, as just a hard long stage with climbs as Agnello, Izoard and Galibier, and someone who tried the impossible from far avoid him to get the double Giro-Tour. But i think even today things have changed form 2011 to some riders.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Nibali is a great climber but does not have the agility nor the body structure of Aru,Contador,Pantani,Schleck
That's why I said "not natural climber",I'm not talking about performances but phenotypes. He's more of a Passista-Scalatore...(I don't know if there is a similar english term..I've yet to find a translation)

this is true.
pure climbers (scalatori puri) tour winners are very few: A.schleck 2010,sastre 2008, pantani 1998, delgado 1988, van impe 1976 and of course coppi.

its time to have a pure climber win again - this year is a good chance with few time trial. although i miss a real big mountain stage.

Would Bahamontes have been considered a "pure climber"?

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Nibali is a great climber but does not have the agility nor the body structure of Aru,Contador,Pantani,Schleck
That's why I said "not natural climber",I'm not talking about performances but phenotypes. He's more of a Passista-Scalatore...(I don't know if there is a similar english term..I've yet to find a translation)

this is true.
pure climbers (scalatori puri) tour winners are very few: A.schleck 2010,sastre 2008, pantani 1998, delgado 1988, van impe 1976 and of course coppi.

its time to have a pure climber win again - this year is a good chance with few time trial. although i miss a real big mountain stage.

Would Bahamontes have been considered a "pure climber"?

Of course Bahamontes is the perfect description of a pure climber. IMO the best climber in History, and he was bad in the flat.

Coppi IMO no, he was much more than a climber, he was the best in History with Merckx. He won the hour records and the Paris-Roubaix...

 

[franic]

Re: Re:

I'm wondering if there's one rider outside of the big 4 who's capable of finishing ahead of one of the big four..
Froome,Contador and Quintana in top form are unbeatable, Nibali must be in the same shape as last year, otherwise he can even be dropped by Pinot and Van Garderen because he is not a natural climber which allows him to have a good performance even when he's not fit.

Bardet and Majka for the polka dot jersey. They have the climbing ability and the typical drive of two young riders, unless they will be worn out from helping their captains

I don't even know who will be the captain: Bardet or Peraud

I can't believe some people still saying this even in this day of age.

Nibali is a great climber but does not have the agility nor the body structure of Aru,Contador,Pantani,Schleck
That's why I said "not natural climber",I'm not talking about performances but phenotypes. He's more of a Passista-Scalatore...(I don't know if there is a similar english term..I've yet to find a translation)

I get your point, and in fact Nibali started more as a passista than a scalatore competing often in TT at the beginning of his career.For instance he represented Italy at 2006 and 2007 TT WC and 2008 TT OG.
But at the moment he has the frame of a pure climber. To give you an idea, here is a 2009 picture of him:

And in 2015:

Moreover here you can read height/weights of the cyclists you mentioned:
Nibali: 181cm, 62kg
Aru: 181cm, 61.5kg
Contador: 176cm, 62kg
Pantani: 172cm, 57 kg
Andy Schleck: 186cm, 68kg

 

[46&twoWheels]

Re: Re:

I get your point, and in fact Nibali started more as a passista than a scalatore competing often in TT at the beginning of his career.For instance he represented Italy at 2006 and 2007 TT WC and 2008 TT OG.
But at the moment he has the frame of a pure climber. To give you an idea, here is a 2009 picture of him:
------
Moreover here you can read height/weights of the cyclists you mentioned:
Nibali: 181cm, 62kg
Aru: 181cm, 61.5kg
Contador: 176cm, 62kg
Pantani: 172cm, 57 kg
Andy Schleck: 186cm, 68kg

nice, thanks. As you showed It's clear that he underwent a transformation.
The problem is that often height and weight don't tell the whole story.
Nibali features are comparable with the numbers of those athletes but there's still something left. Agility is something complex which has to do with body proportions (which influence balance),muscle flexibility,coordination,reflexes!
I still think It's not sufficient to loose weight in order to reach the perfect "Grimpeur silhouette".
This will not affect his performances in terms of wattage,but rather It will be harder for him to counterattack those "explosive" riders like Contador. Nibali suffers sudden changes of speed.Infact Passista sort of means: " that goes at his constant pace"