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Predict the winners of the Vuelta mountaintop finishes

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cyclingfanatik

cyclingfanatik

Aug 4, 2010
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My prediction (assuming no breaks, I can't fathom to predict who will win if there is a break) based on raw climbing ability:

Stage 11: A true brute; I'm going with Andy Schleck. Frank will blow up and Andy will take this one over himself

Stage 14: Tough little finish; I think this is well suited for Rodriguez

Stage 15: I think Menchov or Nibali could take this one. I'll go with Nibali

Stage 16: This could be one for Mosquera. Tough day!

Stage 20: I have no idea- Intauxti? Anton?
 
B

balena

Aug 23, 2010
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Just say who will be the first rider in the GC group...

Don’t expect to see Andy Schleck doing anything massive this time around. The Tour will have taken a lot out of him both mentally and physically. Its all about Frank and Nibali for the GC.

Tom Danielson could do something if the planets align.
 
ericthesportsman6

ericthesportsman6

Jul 14, 2009
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Stage 11-Igor Anton. He tends to ride well early, and he needs time on every mountain stage.

Stage 14-Joaquim Rodriguez. Tough, short, and steep, perfectly suited for Rodriguez. Not to mention he's interested mostly in stage wins, and not the GC.

Stage 15-Benat Intauxti. Attacks early, and is ignored as the favorites watch each other. I really hope he shows off his climbing talent on the big stage.

Stage 16-David Moncoutie. He'll win a stage somewhere, so why not here. It's a good day for KOM points, even though I have a feeling he'll take control of the competition earlier in the race than here.

Stage 20-Ezequiel Mosquera. Will need the time, and he might be the best climber in this year's race.
 
Vonn Brinkman

Vonn Brinkman

Apr 26, 2010
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ericthesportsman6 said:
Stage 11-Igor Anton. He tends to ride well early, and he needs time on every mountain stage.

Stage 14-Joaquim Rodriguez. Tough, short, and steep, perfectly suited for Rodriguez. Not to mention he's interested mostly in stage wins, and not the GC.

Stage 15-Benat Intauxti. Attacks early, and is ignored as the favorites watch each other. I really hope he shows off his climbing talent on the big stage.

Stage 16-David Moncoutie. He'll win a stage somewhere, so why not here. It's a good day for KOM points, even though I have a feeling he'll take control of the competition earlier in the race than here.

Stage 20-Ezequiel Mosquera. Will need the time, and he might be the best climber in this year's race.
Click to expand...

Completely agree with you. The Spaniards will really blow this race up this year. Menchov, Nibali and the Schlecks will do well and stay in the GC groups, but will not actually win any mountaintop finishes. Menchov might take a ITT, and he will finish high as well, but the Spanish armada will win the most stages this year.
 
ericthesportsman6

ericthesportsman6

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O

Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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Just saw a rerun of the LaPandora stage and the insane attacking in the last 4k. There couldn't have been a testing agency within 200 miles of that stage finish! Cunego, Mosquera, Gesink, Basso, Valverde, Evans, Sanchez...everyone was on fire.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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That was a cool stage... a shame Valverde returned after the steep parts where gone though. If they just lasted a bit longer....

Not that it mattered much in the end, after Gesink falling, getting a hole in his knee and lose 4'30 in the final mountain stage dropping him from 2nd (32 seconds behind) to 6th. :(
 
T

theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Oldman said:
Just saw a rerun of the LaPandora stage and the insane attacking in the last 4k. There couldn't have been a testing agency within 200 miles of that stage finish! Cunego, Mosquera, Gesink, Basso, Valverde, Evans, Sanchez...everyone was on fire.
Click to expand...
Cunego had a few minutes head start at the foot of the climb, he won from a break. BTW, are you used to watching only the Tour? In other races, attacking is considered to be an essential part of cycling.
 
B

balena

Aug 23, 2010
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ericthesportsman6 said:
Do you have a good reason for that? There some if not the best climbers in the race.
Click to expand...
If you had to put £1000 on someone to win, who would it be?

Frank Schleck or Joaquin Rodriguez?
Vincenzo Nibali or Ezequiel Mosquera?

Coming 5, 4, 5 would give the impression your lacking that last little bit in the finish wouldn't it? consistant performer but how many races has he won in 11 years as a pro?

I expect to see them in the top 10 with placings during the race, but forget the podium inless we get another David Arroyo...
 
Kwibus

Kwibus

May 25, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
That was a cool stage... a shame Valverde returned after the steep parts where gone though. If they just lasted a bit longer....

Not that it mattered much in the end, after Gesink falling, getting a hole in his knee and lose 4'30 in the final mountain stage dropping him from 2nd (32 seconds behind) to 6th. :(
Click to expand...


Going completely off-topic here, but personally I hope Gesink will go for the Giro and Vuelta next year instead of the TdF. If he's ever gonna have a chance at winning a GT it's the Vuelta or Giro. TdF will be too much I guess, but he could always try if he ever won the Giro or Vuelta. (BIG if's)
But I'm pretty sure the sponsor wants him to ride the TdF and finish 4th-10th instead of a podium in Italy or Spain.
 
O

Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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theyoungest said:
Cunego had a few minutes head start at the foot of the climb, he won from a break. BTW, are you used to watching only the Tour? In other races, attacking is considered to be an essential part of cycling.
Click to expand...

No. I'm also not used to seeing human beings jump around like jackrabbits on crack at that elevation, at the end of a mountain stage. You could see the Cera fumes...
 
T

theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Kwibus said:
Going completely off-topic here, but personally I hope Gesink will go for the Giro and Vuelta next year instead of the TdF. If he's ever gonna have a chance at winning a GT it's the Vuelta or Giro. TdF will be too much I guess, but he could always try if he ever won the Giro or Vuelta. (BIG if's)
But I'm pretty sure the sponsor wants him to ride the TdF and finish 4th-10th instead of a podium in Italy or Spain.
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He's only done one Tour de France, it's a bit too early to give up on it, don't you think? He needs to ride multiple Tours to improve, the level at the Giro and Vuelta is just not high enough. I think he'll do the Tour-Vuelta double next year, and knowing Gesink he'll put up a good fight in both races.

And on-topic: I'm sure Menchov will want to scoop up some bonus seconds along the way. He has a good uphill sprint, and there aren't any Di Lucas or Valverdes to beat him. A stage win should be possible.
 
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Oldman

Jun 19, 2009
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Libertine Seguros said:
Allow me to remind you what it's like when you can genuinely see the CERA:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xLLWZLs2hPg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qPClV8aNqPY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nySBP5JfxTQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMvgbNFAxdA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvMskGCu4cQ

by comparison, La Pandera wasn't too bad at all.
Click to expand...

I'll allow you but I've seen those as well. La Pandera didn't seem as bad by a minor degree but anyone that's raced at altitude can tell you nothing happens fast more than once without paying a huge penalty.
Didn't mean to divert the discussion at hand but noted this year's Tour de France was absent these kinds of displays.
 
S

Sasquatch

Sep 16, 2009
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Sasquatch said:
Stage 11: Igor Anton
Stage 14: Joaquim Rodriguez
Stage 15: Joaquim Rodriguez
Stage 16: David Moncoutie
Stage 20: Andrey Kashetskin
Click to expand...

So far me and someone else are on 100%.

Wish I could change some of these predictions though. Mosquera will probably be the one tomorrow but hoping Rodriguez will do the double.
 
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