question for the experts

[Andre.J]

Do you guys think there will be a Belgian who can win the Tour within the next 5 to 10 years? Is there one maybe being groomed in the juniors for it?

Andre

 

[Netserk]

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

 

[Miburo]

The biggest issue is their mentality, many of them don't wanna leave their country and live in the mountains. They do it more often now but still.

 

[qwerty16]

Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Impossible to say, unless you already have all the insights in the talents and development potential of all 12 year olds in Belgium.

 

[BigMac]

Re:

The biggest issue is their mentality, many of them don't wanna leave their country and live in the mountains. They do it more often now but still.

There's a thread somewhere called ''Where do lowlanders learn to climb''. iirc some of them did/do it in their countries.

 

[Walkman]

Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Remember when we laughed at the idea of a british Tour winner within five years when SKY started? Just saying...

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Remember when we laughed at the idea of a british Tour winner within five years when SKY started? Just saying...

Not comparable for several reasons.

 

[Red Rick]

Ask Alberto, he knows

zero............................................................................................

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Nice of you to drop by, Marty McFly.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Impossible to say, unless you already have all the insights in the talents and development potential of all 12 year olds in Belgium.

I (hate to) agree with Netserk. And I hope I'm wrong.

 

[TheGreenMonkey]

Re: Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Impossible to say, unless you already have all the insights in the talents and development potential of all 12 year olds in Belgium.

You think a 21 year old is going to win the 2024 Tour de France?

 

[Pentacycle]

JVDB and De Gendt have their best climbing days behind them, it seems.

Wellens might get better at pure climbing, he's the only one of the 'established' Belgian riders who might win one IMO.

Then there's Vervaeke, but I don't know his true potential. De Tier and Campenaerts of Topsport might surprise the next few years.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re: Re:

No. Not even close (within 10 years).

Impossible to say, unless you already have all the insights in the talents and development potential of all 12 year olds in Belgium.

Well even if there is a 12 year old Belgian with huge GT potential then surely he won't be a Tour contender until he's 25/26? Maybe even older. It's going to be at least 15 years until we know the answer really so I'd say no, certainly not in the next 10.

 

[ILovecycling]

Why would they bother with boring stage races when they've got cobbles classics!

 

[Gigs_98]

Do you really think its impossible that a 15 year old talent from belgium cannot win the tour in ten years? Did anyone know chris froome when he was 15? I don't think there will be a belgian close to a tour win but I think its nonsense to say its absolutely impossible

 

[The Hitch]

qwerty was right, just got the numbers wrong. The kid doesn't have to be 12 y.o. They can be 15. They can be 16. They can even be 19 or 20. Many recent gt contenders were nobodies or at best average riders until they got into their early and even mid 20's. A few even into their late 20's.

There are reasons to believe Belgians won't win the Tour but shouldn't say its impossible.

I mean if JVDB had the luck in 2012 Nibali had last year he could have had a podium. and imo belgium can produce better than JVDB.

 

[Netserk]

It's quite simple really. Belgium already delivers the maximum amount of cyclists they can. They won't suddenly turn their attention to cycling and then produce twice as many good riders. There very well might be some in the age between 15 and 19 who could develop in to a GT contender, but we all know that the Belgium talent structure produces classic riders. A Wiggins type of rider would never be pushed in the direction of GT ambitions, but would focus on classics and TTs only.

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

It's quite simple really. Belgium already delivers the maximum amount of cyclists they can. They won't suddenly turn their attention to cycling and then produce twice as many good riders. There very well might be some in the age between 15 and 19 who could develop in to a GT contender, but we all know that the Belgium talent structure produces classic riders. A Wiggins type of rider would never be pushed in the direction of GT ambitions, but would focus on classics and TTs only.

Yeah, cos JVDB spent his whole career doing classics and tts and all these other races totally didn't care about the Tour de France

 

[SeriousSam]

Some recents winners of the Tour were ex ante incredibly unlikely to do so, so you cannot rule it out, but the chance it happes within 10 years is well below 0.5, so the answer to the OP must be no.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

It's quite simple really. Belgium already delivers the maximum amount of cyclists they can. They won't suddenly turn their attention to cycling and then produce twice as many good riders. There very well might be some in the age between 15 and 19 who could develop in to a GT contender, but we all know that the Belgium talent structure produces classic riders. A Wiggins type of rider would never be pushed in the direction of GT ambitions, but would focus on classics and TTs only.

Yeah, cos JVDB spent his whole career doing classics and tts and all these other races totally didn't care about the Tour de France

Because there's now, just like back then for JVDB, one of, if not the leading team regarding GTs that is being led by a Belgian and which develops Belgium talent?

And yet, there's only been JVDB and De Gendt (fluke) who has been able to top-5 a GT, though not contending for the win, for Belgium since 1996. That is for one of the biggest nations in the sport.

 

[Andre.J]

Re:

JVDB and De Gendt have their best climbing days behind them, it seems.

Wellens might get better at pure climbing, he's the only one of the 'established' Belgian riders who might win one IMO.

Then there's Vervaeke, but I don't know his true potential. De Tier and Campenaerts of Topsport might surprise the next few years.

Thanks...I'll keep an eye on Campenaerts and Vervaeke. Never heard of De Tier though..isn't that a team? Oh and yes I do agree with Wellens; he's been very entertaining as an attacker, I hope he gets even better.

Andre

 

[Ruudz0r]

Re: Re:

JVDB and De Gendt have their best climbing days behind them, it seems.

Wellens might get better at pure climbing, he's the only one of the 'established' Belgian riders who might win one IMO.

Then there's Vervaeke, but I don't know his true potential. De Tier and Campenaerts of Topsport might surprise the next few years.

Thanks...I'll keep an eye on Campenaerts and Vervaeke. Never heard of De Tier though..isn't that a team? Oh and yes I do agree with Wellens; he's been very entertaining as an attacker, I hope he gets even better.

Andre

Laurens de Plus has most potential for GTs I think from the belgium youth. Last year in his first U23 year he worked for Vervaeke mainly and did very well, this year he is really strong he would have won l'Iseard if he did not have bad luck in the queen stage. He is also going to ride Valle d'Aosta so that will be a good test. He cant win a GT in the next years though as Lopez is going to dominate all the GTs!

 

[TMP402]

Tiejs Benoot finished ahead of Froome on the Dauphine stage Costa won - and I don't remember him being in a breakaway that day. If he truly wasn't in a breakaway, then who is to say he couldn't work hard at his climbing?

 

[Miburo]

Re:

Tiejs Benoot finished ahead of Froome on the Dauphine stage Costa won - and I don't remember him being in a breakaway that day. If he truly wasn't in a breakaway, then who is to say he couldn't work hard at his climbing?

First type: go away from lotto.

You'll never become a top tier if you stay there, amateurs.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

It's quite simple really. Belgium already delivers the maximum amount of cyclists they can. They won't suddenly turn their attention to cycling and then produce twice as many good riders. There very well might be some in the age between 15 and 19 who could develop in to a GT contender, but we all know that the Belgium talent structure produces classic riders. A Wiggins type of rider would never be pushed in the direction of GT ambitions, but would focus on classics and TTs only.

Yeah, cos JVDB spent his whole career doing classics and tts and all these other races totally didn't care about the Tour de France

Because there's now, just like back then for JVDB, one of, if not the leading team regarding GTs that is being led by a Belgian and which develops Belgium talent?

And yet, there's only been JVDB and De Gendt (fluke) who has been able to top-5 a GT, though not contending for the win, for Belgium since 1996. That is for one of the biggest nations in the sport.

Who says that things can't change? If belgium suddenly has the talent of the century they wont let him ride only the classics. You are right, its unlikely but not even almost impossible.