If we ignore his history in the Diegem race, it would seem the least likely of the 3 consecutive races for MVDP to win. It's a race with lots of paved climbing, really, which should favor the proven road climbers, Wout and Pidcock. Mathieu won the hardest, heaviest race (Gavere) by a good margin, was a missed pedal from sprinting for the win at Zolder where Pidcock wasn't a factor (got his rest), and then was by far the best rider at Diegem for 6 laps. Blew up in the end. He'll be disappointed and maybe concerned, and I would have liked to see him do better, but I don't think it's time to dismiss his chances for the rainbow jersey.
He won the race with the most running, and the heaviest mud; that's Wout territory, whereas the other races normally suit MvdP. I don't know what happened at his training camp, but he's down a level from Antwerp. Maybe him/his team are looking long term, and his top form will kick in later on. The micro accelerations don't appear to be there which is where he's often gained time.
He did get a gap last night, but he didn't look like his best version, it looked like hard work. And the gap disappeared very quickly.....