Woah, this is a rant.
I like cobbles being included, but I always think they should play a part in the race beyond who crashes and who doesn't. Even include 2 cobbled stages of a distance and difficulty that will create gaps even if no one crashes. I think to reduce crashes placing them in the final week would be better. Worth a shot or must we see high mountains and a TT decide things in the final week?
A tour from a GC excitement standpoint for me is determined by how easy to knock off the favourite it is. Which is really hard if the favourite is the best climber and flat TTer. Far easier if you are pitting Schleck vs Evans than Froome vs Quintana. Froome is only vulnerable on the flat once isolated from his team, cobbles are an unknown, downhill I've not seen anything to show he's particularly vulnerable. 5 uphill finishes definitely fall in Froome's favour. Long flat ITT definitely falls in his favour.
IMHO if want to beat Froome, beat Sky in the hills and Froome on the flat. Even queen stages up and down all day can fall into his favour, as with a little patience Froome and Sky may lose the leaders on a climb. Then they can regroup drive hard to the next climb and then Froome can use the climb to bridge the gap, same same with a MTF. IMHO the best stages to beat Sky would be ridiculous hard starts and long flat finishes. These don't exist this tour. With 5 uphill finishes and a long TT I'd say the next best rider needs to find minimum 5 minutes over Froome to win. For surprise sake, best to do it one hit.
Stages 10, 14, 17, and 18 are chances. Stage 10 is great, but it is the first stage for real gaps (apart from crashes on cobbles) in the Tour and these have a habit being something of a let down as the contenders feel each other out. Stage 14 is a good chance. Though I'll argue if you want to win the Tour Froome needs to be with max 2 teammates over col du lauteret and the attacks need to be constant from there on, if you wait until izoard, you may make a minute, but not 5. Stage 17 could be the most exciting stage of the tour, but I can't see big time gaps. Stage 18 depends on what has happend up until now, and many folk may be looking more to move from 5th to 4th, which spoils any opportunity presented coupled with Tourmalet being so obvious, and finishing up Hautacam means a Sky don't have to catch the leaders, just get close. I'd say you have almost no chance of taking 1 minute let alone 5.
There are many stages I like for the interest of who wins the stage, but for GC overall this isn't much of a tour. I'd prefer to see the race week 3, then week 1 then week 2 to be honest.