I'm giving it a seven- the route seems well-rounded, though it may miss just EVEN ONE epic climb.
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gregrowlerson said:8. Very good, though could do with some more ITT. Stages 8 & 10 look excellent, and finishing climbs in high mountains are not overused ones.
brilleaben said:At the least they want to postpone Froome's annihilation of the rest to the absolute end of the race.
brilleaben said:At the least they want to postpone Froome's annihilation of the rest to the absolute end of the race.
jens_attacks said:froome will kill the race in the vosges. on belles filles he can take the same amount of time as on bonascre this year
brilleaben said:But on the TT he'll extend his lead from 5 to 8 minutes
Waterloo Sunrise said:You're backing Nibali over Quintana for 2nd then.
18-Valve. (pithy) said:Yeah, some people seem to be forgetting that Froome targets this race. ASO could have added a genuine MTT that may have favored Quintana a bit, but to add another (two?) flat and/or hilly TTs and have them earlier on in the race? LOL
I think Nibali has chance to get some time from Froome in Stage 2, just like Porto Sant'Elpidio in 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 6karlboss said:I like cobbles being included, but I always think they should play a part in the race beyond who crashes and who doesn't. Even include 2 cobbled stages of a distance and difficulty that will create gaps even if no one crashes. I think to reduce crashes placing them in the final week would be better. Worth a shot or must we see high mountains and a TT decide things in the final week?
A tour from a GC excitement standpoint for me is determined by how easy to knock off the favourite it is. Which is really hard if the favourite is the best climber and flat TTer. Far easier if you are pitting Schleck vs Evans than Froome vs Quintana. Froome is only vulnerable on the flat once isolated from his team, cobbles are an unknown, downhill I've not seen anything to show he's particularly vulnerable. 5 uphill finishes definitely fall in Froome's favour. Long flat ITT definitely falls in his favour.
IMHO if want to beat Froome, beat Sky in the hills and Froome on the flat. Even queen stages up and down all day can fall into his favour, as with a little patience Froome and Sky may lose the leaders on a climb. Then they can regroup drive hard to the next climb and then Froome can use the climb to bridge the gap, same same with a MTF. IMHO the best stages to beat Sky would be ridiculous hard starts and long flat finishes. These don't exist this tour. With 5 uphill finishes and a long TT I'd say the next best rider needs to find minimum 5 minutes over Froome to win. For surprise sake, best to do it one hit.
Stages 10, 14, 17, and 18 are chances. Stage 10 is great, but it is the first stage for real gaps (apart from crashes on cobbles) in the Tour and these have a habit being something of a let down as the contenders feel each other out. Stage 14 is a good chance. Though I'll argue if you want to win the Tour Froome needs to be with max 2 teammates over col du lauteret and the attacks need to be constant from there on, if you wait until izoard, you may make a minute, but not 5. Stage 17 could be the most exciting stage of the tour, but I can't see big time gaps. Stage 18 depends on what has happend up until now, and many folk may be looking more to move from 5th to 4th, which spoils any opportunity presented coupled with Tourmalet being so obvious, and finishing up Hautacam means a Sky don't have to catch the leaders, just get close. I'd say you have almost no chance of taking 1 minute let alone 5.
There are many stages I like for the interest of who wins the stage, but for GC overall this isn't much of a tour. I'd prefer to see the race week 3, then week 1 then week 2 to be honest.
coimbrawu said:I think Nibali has chance to get some time from Froome in Stage 2, just like Porto Sant'Elpidio in 2013 Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 6
very disappointed that there are 20 km between the bottom of descend to the finish line at Mulhouse in Stage 9, if not, Nibali would have had his chance in that stage too.
Vosges would be excited if some teams are keen to create chaos in Stage 9 and Stage 10, just like Garmin do in TdF 2013 stage 9
If this article in the blog is correct, there are some nasty steep climb in the final kms, some section with gradient more that 20%, like Jenkin road, that is like Porto Sant'Elpidio, and it is hard for Sky to control races with many steep sections. For those who wants to beat Froome in the next tour, it is hard to expect to beat him in one stage. Get 10 seconds in one stage, and 30 stage in another stage, etc. is more possible IMO. And at least it is highly possible not to see Froome in yellow after stage 10, or even after the 1st/2nd Pyrenees stage. If so, there will be the big improvement comparing to the last 2 editionskarlboss said:Stage 8, I can't see gaps till the final climb and they will be small, 10 I mentioned. 2 is unlikely it's a classic route but not a classic, with the full might of Sky I'm not sure it offers much. Stage 9 I hadn't seen that, the flat at the end offers an opportunity, decent for the gap flat for time, works well.