Remco vs Paul, who will have the best LBL result in 2026?

[Red Rick]

Jonas maybe can after 130 km of racing but not after 230 km.

Why do people always pretend distance in a 1 day race has the exact same effect in a Grand Tour.

Vingegaard has never been dropped by Pogacar on a >200km stage

 

[Old-school]

that's tricky because the terrain suits Remco better, but the result of Seixas in Fleche Wallone has shown he can play on all fronts. So I vote Paul, I don't think the lenght of the race is such an issue for him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Why do people always pretend distance in a 1 day race has the exact same effect in a Grand Tour.

Vingegaard has never been dropped by Pogacar on a >200km stage

Did I say anything about GTs? I was refering to Liege exactly.
One year ago I was still a believer when it comes to Jonas' abilities in long classics but I'm not sure anymore.

 

[Red Rick]

Did I say anything about GTs? I was refering to Liege exactly.
One year ago I was still a believer when it comes to Jonas' abilities in long classics but I'm not sure anymore.

Well you made it about distance, not one day racing. The implied hypothetical is that Vingegaard would be in TdF shape.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well you made it about distance, not one day racing. The implied hypothetical is that Vingegaard would be in TdF shape.

So would an in-form Jonas follow Pog all the way and get 2nd in Liege? (or even first place)

 

[Red Rick]

So would an in-form Jonas follow Pog all the way and get 2nd in Liege? (or even first place)

The obvious answer is the's the #1 candidate to follow on La Redoute, because he has basically a 4 year track record of doing that in the TdF hilly stages.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The obvious answer is the's the #1 candidate to follow on La Redoute, because he has basically a 4 year track record of doing that in the TdF hilly stages.

That was my thinking one year ago but maybe he'll never be in this kind of form in April anyway. Too bad he's not trying.

 

[Coppi-Bartali]

The obvious answer is the's the #1 candidate to follow on La Redoute, because he has basically a 4 year track record of doing that in the TdF hilly stages.

You said it yourself,at the Tour de France. In one-day races, Vingegaard's results are more similar to Froome's.
Looking at his results in the one-day races, the obvious answer is that he wouldn't even make podium.

 

[Red Rick]

That was my thinking one year ago but maybe he'll never be in this kind of form in April anyway. Too bad he's not trying.

He was in 2023.

When he's tried in one day races in the fall in a serious way, it wasn't that terrible. The thing where GC riders go do multiple GC bids in February/March/April and then they're toast by the time the Ardennes rolls around is not all that unique to Vingegaard.

It's a pity it's probably not doable because of altitude camps, but I would've loved to see Vingegaard race TOTA while chilling around a bit and then show up to Liege before going to the Giro

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He was in 2023.

When he's tried in one day races in the fall in a serious way, it wasn't that terrible. The thing where GC riders go do multiple GC bids in February/March/April and then they're toast by the time the Ardennes rolls around is not all that unique to Vingegaard.

It's a pity it's probably not doable because of altitude camps, but I would've loved to see Vingegaard race TOTA while chilling around a bit and then show up to Liege before going to the Giro

Being not terrible and following the best one-day racer since Merckx is not the same though. Monuments are raced at a high intensity (compared to intermediate Tour stages), are longer and there are a lot of fast sections in Liege so it's not just w/kg battle. I would rate Vingegaard's chances for top2 higher in Lombardy (if he somehow manages to build an autumn peak) but in Liege I'm not sure.

 

[Red Rick]

Being not terrible and following the best one-day racer since Merckx is not the same though. Monuments are raced at a high intensity (compared to intermediate Tour stages), are longer and there are a lot of fast sections in Liege so it's not just w/kg battle.

I'm just gonna call bs here.

If the pace is so high for so long in LBL, why is there 100 guys going into La Redoute?

 

[Red Rick]

Or just make an educated guess for Michael Woods' or Alejandro Valverde's average watts in LBL 2021 when he sprinted for the win

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm just gonna call bs here.

If the pace is so high for so long in LBL, why is there 100 guys going into La Redoute?

Well, maybe you are right. A possible explanation of him missing LBL is he's not in thermonuclear form then (so he doesn't expect himself to be in contention for victory) and is preparing for other goals.
BTW, I just checked his Ardennes campaign in 2021 (fresh after his Basque runner-up) and there was a large divergence between one-day racing and stage-racing results. I know it's mezozoic era but he was in decent form then.

 

[Red Rick]

Well, maybe you are right. A possible explanation of him missing LBL is he's not in thermonuclear form then (so he doesn't expect himself to be in contention for victory) and is preparing for other goals.
BTW, I just checked his Ardennes campaign in 2021 (fresh after his Basque runner-up) and there was a large divergence between one-day racing and stage-racing results. I know it's mezozoic era but he was in decent form then.

I think that's when riders often prepeare for stage races and they get tossed into the Ardennes for the sake of it, probably over the spring peak already.

Also, notable he was much less *** in Liege than Fleche. Amstel he should never start.

 

[houtdffan]

that's tricky because the terrain suits Remco better, but the result of Seixas in Fleche Wallone has shown he can play on all fronts. So I vote Paul, I don't think the lenght of the race is such an issue for him.

are we forgetting Remco literally won a similar length race this past sunday

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

To those who say Paul Seixas can't handle the distance:

https://www.strava.com/activities/16194423163/overview

disclaimer: no comments about speed.

 

[vappa]

To those who say Paul Seixas can't handle the distance:

https://www.strava.com/activities/16194423163/overview

disclaimer: no comments about speed.

Just distance without speed is irrelevant

 

[peterfin]

Remco by a mile. Literally.

 

[ChasingPotatoes]

Just distance without speed is irrelevant

you didn't read the disclaimer

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

To those who say Paul Seixas can't handle the distance:

https://www.strava.com/activities/16194423163/overview

disclaimer: no comments about speed.

He anyway got 7th in Lombardia and 13th in the WCRR to show for. Those are Top results for an 18 year old, especially given how hard the WCRR was. Certainly results that don't indicate he fades badly after 200km in my opinion.

I think Seixas is gonna be fine with the distance, and that he'll drop Remco either on a climb or on a descend.

 

[vappa]

you didn't read the disclaimer

I did, my point is just the distance is achievable to "everyone" and shouldn't matter much

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Remco by a mile. Literally.

He'll be DSQ for not using the metric system, so automatic win for Seixas against him.

 

[vappa]

He anyway got 7th in Lombardia and 13th in the WCRR to show for. Those are Top results for an 18 year old, especially given how hard the WCRR was. Certainly results that don't indicate he fades badly after 200km in my opinion.

I think Seixas is gonna be fine with the distance, and that he'll drop Remco either on a climb or on a descend.

He won't drop Remco on descents, it will be dry, Remco is a lot more familiar with them and they're not very technical

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

He won't drop Remco on descents, it will be dry, Remco is a lot more familiar with them and they're not very technical

Yeah, I don't know what I had in mind (like which part of the parcours) when I wrote that. Looked at the descends again and yes, he won't be dropped. Nonthinking take by me because Seixas is such a good descender.

 

[vappa]

Yeah, I don't know what I had in mind (like which part of the parcours) when I wrote that. Looked at the descends again and yes, he won't be dropped. Nonthinking take by me because Seixas is such a good descender.

He did (unnecessarily) one very good descent by being familiar with it by doing a recon and taking big risks. We have yet to see if he really is such a great descender