Rest Day 1: who wins green?

[Leinster]

Are we completely dismissing VanAert here? On 47 points currently, yet to actually contest a sprint properly, and was able to out sprint Bennett and Ewan at times last year. Ok, he hasn’t had the same form and/or prep as last year, but now that he’s relieved of any GC nursemaid duties (JV aren’t going to defend/work for Vingegaard’s possible 3rd place nearly the way they would Roglic’s drive for yellow) then stage wins are surely on the cards, and he might climb the rankings very quickly. With Tony Martin and Teunissen, he has a solidish leadout there, too.

 

[Bonimenier]

Are we completely dismissing VanAert here? On 47 points currently, yet to actually contest a sprint properly, and was able to out sprint Bennett and Ewan at times last year. Ok, he hasn’t had the same form and/or prep as last year, but now that he’s relieved of any GC nursemaid duties (JV aren’t going to defend/work for Vingegaard’s possible 3rd place nearly the way they would Roglic’s drive for yellow) then stage wins are surely on the cards, and he might climb the rankings very quickly. With Tony Martin and Teunissen, he has a solidish leadout there, too.

If he made it his goal the next coming 2 weeks he could definitely get close or take it, but it's likely he'll take certain days off with Tokyo on his mind. So I doubt he'll get enough points in the intermediates.

I said Colbrelly for green before the Tour so I'll stick to it, but if Cav keeps dominating the sprint stages it might be impossible for Sonny.

 

[Leinster]

If he made it his goal the next coming 2 weeks he could definitely get close or take it, but it's likely he'll take certain days off with Tokyo on his mind. So I doubt he'll get enough points in the intermediates.

I said Colbrelly for green before the Tour so I'll stick to it, but if Cav keeps dominating the sprint stages it might be impossible for Sonny.

I can’t see enough stages between now and Paris being hard enough for Sonny to pick up points without Cav nearby. Unless he repeats his stage 9, but then if he keeps that up he’ll be in the GC hunt and won’t be able to get in any more breaks.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Cav 59 points clear now, and neither Matthews nor Colbrelli are quick enough to capitalise on a high value finish even if they did drop him. If Cav makes the time cut tomorrow it's all over.

 

[will-10]

The only competition is the time cut now, but Ventoux, Andorra stage and the Tourmalet stage (only 130km) are all threats in that regard.

 

[Northerner]

Ok, I doubted Cav would still have the legs for the sprints after the mountains, but if he reaches Paris I don't think anyone will catch him now. If he reaches Paris...