Rest Day 1: who wins green?

Rest Day 1: Who wins green?

  • Cavendish

    Votes: 38 55.1%
  • Matthews

    Votes: 2 2.9%
  • Colbrelli

    Votes: 19 27.5%
  • Philipsen

    Votes: 3 4.3%
  • Alaphilippe

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bouhanni

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Pogacar

    Votes: 3 4.3%
  • Sagan

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Vino/Other

    Votes: 2 2.9%

  • Total voters
    69
  • Poll closed .
So Cav survived Tignes, Matthews kept his points from the intermediate and Colbrelli took 3rd on a 4000m climbing day. Fair to say we should expect the unexpected. Cast your votes

RnkPrev▼▲RiderPoints
11-CAVENDISH Mark Deceuninck - Quick Step168
22-MATTHEWS Michael Team BikeExchange130
36▲3COLBRELLI Sonny Bahrain - Victorious121
44-PHILIPSEN Jasper Alpecin-Fenix102
57▲2ALAPHILIPPE Julian Deceuninck - Quick Step99
65▼1BOUHANNI Nacer Team Arkéa Samsic99
78▲1POGAČAR Tadej UAE-Team Emirates89
89▲1SAGAN Peter BORA - hansgrohe72
910▲1MOHORIČ Matej Bahrain - Victorious62
1013▲3ASGREEN Kasper Deceuninck - Quick Step50
 
Kasper Asgreen will win Tuesday's stage and 70 points as DQS don't want to chase a break alone. He will do the same after the Ventoux stage and win the green jersey.

The sprinters will then arrange a protest where they interchangeably block eachother on the parkour and all get declassified.
 
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I think Cav wins but this might actually depend on other teams. If teams other than Quick Step race for the sprint stages, he easily picks up enough points to win. If they don't, I can see a lot of breakaway wins on this sprint stages so good chance Colbrelli might actually pick up enough to take it.
 
#ManxMissile5Wins

Still backing Cav for 5 and green like before the Tour.
Crazy how the first poll on Red Rick, Amazinmets87 and myself were the only ones to vote Cav. Now he is leading. Of course other teams with sprinters will help bring in the breakaway, especially if they don’t have any stage wins. It is ridiculous to think otherwise and if they don’t Quickstep can put riders in the breakaways and still try for their wins. This isn’t 2009-2011 HTC doing all the work with a young Cav because they’re dominating. Quicksteps train has been overcome by AF in both sprints Cav has won. AF thinks they can beat Quickstep and Cav (whether they choose stage 4 or stage 6 tactics). There are 4 other teams besides Quickstep that will work for the win and only 2 have wins.
 
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If this is the official rest day chit chat thread some food for thought. Roglič and Pogačar are often refereed as being Rog and Pog. I guess due to the difficulties with pronunciation o Č. Note that there is an alternative option available as they nicknamed themselves already in the past as being Rogla and Pogi.

P.S. Now you know your favourite cyclist official nickname.
 
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#ManxMissile5Wins

Still backing Cav for 5 and green like before the Tour.
Crazy how the first poll on Red Rick, Amazinmets87 and myself were the only ones to vote Cav. Now he is leading. Of course other teams with sprinters will help bring in the breakaway, especially if they don’t have any stage wins. It is ridiculous to think otherwise and if they don’t Quickstep can put riders in the breakaways and still try for their wins. This isn’t 2009-2011 HTC doing all the work with a young Cav because they’re dominating. Quicksteps train has been overcome by AF in both sprints Cav has won. AF thinks they can beat Quickstep and Cav (whether they choose stage 4 or stage 6 tactics). There are 4 other teams besides Quickstep that will work for the win and only 2 have wins.
The other sprinters are being trimmed day by day. We’re going to see Sagan and Colbrelli and Matthew’s getting in breaks now, because they know they can’t out-drag race Cav or Philipsen.

DQS can hand-pick their DeClerq days, though, and make sure Cav is in the mix on those days, but put Alaphilippe, Asgreen or whoever in the break with the other green-chasers to spoil and prevent the “wrong sorts” getting maximum points.
 
The other sprinters are being trimmed day by day. We’re going to see Sagan and Colbrelli and Matthew’s getting in breaks now, because they know they can’t out-drag race Cav or Philipsen.

DQS can hand-pick their DeClerq days, though, and make sure Cav is in the mix on those days, but put Alaphilippe, Asgreen or whoever in the break with the other green-chasers to spoil and prevent the “wrong sorts” getting maximum points.
Edit: though at the time of that post I didn’t realize Demare finished OTL today. The next upcoming flat stages Quickstep should be hungry got to get the win.


Again, this isn’t young Cav. His sprint, stamina, and endurance after 1-3 weeks of racing hard is yet to be seen. I doubt Bora was ever going to help but Colbrelli and Matthews team both will still help a little unless they’re still being dominated. Both those riders still need points and if the breakaway takes those points, there is less chance of coming back and winning green.
 
Last edited:
#ManxMissile5Wins

Still backing Cav for 5 and green like before the Tour.
Crazy how the first poll on Red Rick, Amazinmets87 and myself were the only ones to vote Cav. Now he is leading. Of course other teams with sprinters will help bring in the breakaway, especially if they don’t have any stage wins. It is ridiculous to think otherwise and if they don’t Quickstep can put riders in the breakaways and still try for their wins. This isn’t 2009-2011 HTC doing all the work with a young Cav because they’re dominating. Quicksteps train has been overcome by AF in both sprints Cav has won. AF thinks they can beat Quickstep and Cav (whether they choose stage 4 or stage 6 tactics). There are 4 other teams besides Quickstep that will work for the win and only 2 have wins.
Tbf, from a pure sprinter pov, there's not many left and even less who's team isn't down several members already.

Bora are unlikely to help for Sagan, bar some positioning help at the end and if they're smart, Bahrain or BikeExchange won't help until it's inevitable the break will be brought back. Smarter tactic is to leave QuickStep ride and reduce their strength for the end of the stage and best tactic to win green is for them to pick up points on stages Cav can't and reduce the amount of points he wins on the stages he can (which means leaving breaks go).
 
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Tbf, from a pure sprinter pov, there's not many left and even less who's team isn't down several members already.

Bora are unlikely to help for Sagan, bar some positioning help at the end and if they're smart, Bahrain or BikeExchange won't help until it's inevitable the break will be brought back. Smarter tactic is to leave QuickStep ride and reduce their strength for the end of the stage and best tactic to win green is for them to pick up points on stages Cav can't and reduce the amount of points he wins on the stages he can (which means leaving breaks go).
There aren’t many sprint points available where Cav can’t go, that will also be in places where other sprinters can. Sagan, Mathews and Colbrelli are going to have to try and get into breaks, pick up as many points as possible in the mountain stages.
 
There aren’t many sprint points available where Cav can’t go, that will also be in places where other sprinters can. Sagan, Mathews and Colbrelli are going to have to try and get into breaks, pick up as many points as possible in the mountain stages.
Ya, looking at the route and where the intermediate points are, there's some chance to drop Cav if Bahrain and BikeExchange drill it on stages 10, 11, 14,18,19 and he should definitely be out on stage 16 which is one that Colbrelli and Matthews will target in a break I'd say. That and 14 are the two they're probably best off targeting for breaks as good chance of getting to the finish and winning there.
 
There aren’t many sprint points available where Cav can’t go, that will also be in places where other sprinters can. Sagan, Mathews and Colbrelli are going to have to try and get into breaks, pick up as many points as possible in the mountain stages.
Quickstep has 3 stages baring unforeseen circumstances that will have sprint finishes, 13, 19, and 21. Quickstep will be gunning to set up sprint finishes in 10, 12, and 13 for Cav to win, gain points, and in case he finishes OTL these are the last 3 stages he can win for 5 days. Matthews needs every point he can get over Colbrelli if Colbrelli is able to do this mountain performance again. Matthews has beat Colbrelli in a sprint at the finish every time but stage 3. If the breaks take the stage and intermediate points, Matthews won’t gain more points than Colbrelli and has no chance at green. Colbrelli has the potential to gain points on every remaining stage based off today.

Ya, looking at the route and where the intermediate points are, there's some chance to drop Cav if Bahrain and BikeExchange drill it on stages 10, 11, 14,18,19 and he should definitely be out on stage 16 which is one that Colbrelli and Matthews will target in a break I'd say. That and 14 are the two they're probably best off targeting for breaks as good chance of getting to the finish and winning there.
Of the remaining stages I think Cav can gain 200-250 points in the best case scenario. We’ll best case is him winning all the remain flat stages but that’s unlikely.
Stage 10 Cav can’t contest the intermediate sprint and baring bad luck will compete for points at the end. Big chance for break to make it.
Stage 11 Cav can contest the intermediate and even go in the break for it, which is likely with all 3 there.
Stage 12 Cav can contest the intermediate. Chance for break.
Stage 13 Cav can contest the intermediate. Sprint most likely.
Stage 14 Cav can contest the intermediate and even go in the break for it, which is likely with all 3 there.
Stage 15 Cav can contest the intermediate and Quickstep can even keep a break from forming until reaching the intermediate.
Stage 16 Cav highly unlikely to contest intermediate it could try breakaway.
Stage 17 Cav can contest the intermediate.
Stage 18 Cav can contest the intermediate.
Stage 19 Cav can contest intermediate and sprint most likely.
Stage 20 no points.
Stage 21 Cav can contest intermediate and sprint most likely.
 
If this is the official rest day chit chat thread some food for thought. Roglič and Pogačar are often refereed as being Rog and Pog. I guess due to the difficulties with pronunciation o Č. Note that there is an alternative option available as they nicknamed themselves already in the past as being Rogla and Pogi.

P.S. Now you know your favourite cyclist official nickname.
Nah I think most use Rog and Pog as shorthand when talking about both riders because it rhymes and is short and snappy not because they are unaware of the nicknames you mentioned above.
 
#ManxMissile5Wins

Still backing Cav for 5 and green like before the Tour.
Crazy how the first poll on Red Rick, Amazinmets87 and myself were the only ones to vote Cav. Now he is leading. Of course other teams with sprinters will help bring in the breakaway, especially if they don’t have any stage wins. It is ridiculous to think otherwise and if they don’t Quickstep can put riders in the breakaways and still try for their wins. This isn’t 2009-2011 HTC doing all the work with a young Cav because they’re dominating. Quicksteps train has been overcome by AF in both sprints Cav has won. AF thinks they can beat Quickstep and Cav (whether they choose stage 4 or stage 6 tactics). There are 4 other teams besides Quickstep that will work for the win and only 2 have wins.
Was 100% a yolo vote tbh.
 
Nah I think most use Rog and Pog as shorthand when talking about both riders because it rhymes and is short and snappy not because they are unaware of the nicknames you mentioned above.
If you are not all that big of a fan then i can agree. But if you are then Rog and Pog feels doing them unjustice.

They choose to be Rogla and Pogi and best to respect that.
 
I'm voting Cav here, because I believe he'll win a couple more stages, but I'm not sure how much effort I would even put into the green jersey if I was him. It's a nice trophy, but not at the cost of more stages, especially Paris.

I'd go for the intermediates where convenient, but not where it costs too much energy; and if Matthews wins the green jersey while Cav wins two or three more stages, then that's a great result regardless imo. edit: or more than great actually, his Tour is already great all things considered.
 
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