Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[VayaVayaVaya]

Okay, now I think you’re just making things up. Her didn’t lose an inch to Pog’s initial acceleration and looked comfortable doing so. Then he slowed the pace because he put himself in a tactically bad position in front. Just upthread to responded to comments with “let’s see” and “end of story.” Why keep upping the ante with even flimsier arguments?

Because @Extinction is a Remco fan and wants us to reassure him?

 

[red_flanders]

Let's see.

Yeah this is a heavy course. He'd have to be better than last year to keep the same time gaps. And he was actually great last year.

 

[Gratemans]

Except... not. We are talking about a rider who is missing the absolute basics of cornering

Sorry I just took this little sentence from you're epistle (which actually was an interesting read).
Now I don't follow him that close, but it made me wonder how this actually can be true? How could he win so many TT's when he doesn't know how to properly attack a corner? That just seems really weird to me as that's one of the most essential skills for being a time-trialist.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sorry I just took this little sentence from you're epistle (which actually was an interesting read).
Now I don't follow him that close, but it made me wonder how this actually can be true? How could he win so many TT's when he doesn't know how to properly attack a corner? That just seems really weird to me as that's one of the most essential skills for being a time-trialist.

It's quite clear when you look for it. When they are riding single file, like in the final a few days ago, coming out of the corner (even when he just has to follow wheels) there is often a gap in front of him and he has to sprint to close it. He loses time in TT's on technical parts. He loses time on descents. The TT this week was super easy, except for the start out of town, and the finish back into town. After the first few km, Pogacar was ahead. Then the straight sections came and Evenepoel started expanding his lead. Until the last couple of more technical kilometers and suddenly Pogacar starts taking seconds back.

How? Why? I can only assume he missed that part of his training due to never having done the youth ranks, and once he became pro, people just assumed he would figure it out by riding in the peloton. I don't know. Back in his first year i basically predicted something bad would happen, and we know what happened in his 2nd year.

And i believe it is a self perpetuating issue. He likely knows it is a problem, so he tries to be careful and his gutfeeling is telling him to move away from the outside of the corner, but that is counter productive and he happens to cut out the trajectory that allows him to see far into the corner and accelerate out of the corner. He cuts too early, does not see where the bend is going, heads straight for the outside and has to hit the brakes. Either he crashes or he loses time.

I made this post (with a graphic to clarify) last year: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threa...dy-merckx-thread.34086/page-1034#post-3041452

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The TdF is actually terrible for winning the W/kg cause everything is so shallow you need to be better by a comical degree to drop someone.

Come on, don't say there are no difficult climbs. 5 HC finishes + MTT, some stages with huge amount of climbing. Out of those 5 only Loze is too shallow but stage difficulty will matter then as well. Visma definitely can't complain about lack of opportunities, there are a lot of them.

I didn't say Vingo needs perfectly even tempo to drop Pogacar, he'll need some accelerations as well. If he can't gain time on Pogacar on those multiple hard mountain stages then he's not good enough to win.

 

[Berniece]

The TdF is actually terrible for winning the W/kg cause everything is so shallow you need to be better by a comical degree to drop someone.

Visma is going all-in for stage 18 and 19. Definitely good for W/kg fight

 

[Extinction]

Okay, now I think you’re just making things up. He didn’t lose an inch to Pog’s initial acceleration and looked comfortable doing so. Then he slowed the pace because he put himself in a tactically bad position in front. Just upthread you responded to comments with “let’s see” and “end of story.” Why keep upping the ante with even flimsier arguments?

He got dropped, couldn't handle the pace, he'll be off in the mountains

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Visma is going all-in for stage 18 and 19. Definitely good for W/kg fight

Visma usually plans to go all-out on selected stages. I think they will choose i.e. two mountain stages this year (maybe one in the Pyrenees and one in the Alps) to try to break Pogacar somehow (either with classical brutal pace or with a less orthodox tactic).

 

[Berniece]

Visma usually plans to go all-out on selected stages. I think they will choose i.e. two mountain stages this year (maybe one in the Pyrenees and one in the Alps) to try to break Pogacar somehow (either with classical brutal pace or with a less orthodox tactic).

Stage 18 is perfect for it. 5.500m of altitude, one of the hardest stages in TDF for the past few years

 

[peterfin]

It's quite clear when you look for it. When they are riding single file, like in the final a few days ago, coming out of the corner (even when he just has to follow wheels) there is often a gap in front of him and he has to sprint to close it. He loses time in TT's on technical parts. He loses time on descents. The TT this week was super easy, except for the start out of town, and the finish back into town. After the first few km, Pogacar was ahead. Then the straight sections came and Evenepoel started expanding his lead. Until the last couple of more technical kilometers and suddenly Pogacar starts taking seconds back.

How? Why? I can only assume he missed that part of his training due to never having done the youth ranks, and once he became pro, people just assumed he would figure it out by riding in the peloton. I don't know. Back in his first year i basically predicted something bad would happen, and we know what happened in his 2nd year.

And i believe it is a self perpetuating issue. He likely knows it is a problem, so he tries to be careful and his gutfeeling is telling him to move away from the outside of the corner, but that is counter productive and he happens to cut out the trajectory that allows him to see far into the corner and accelerate out of the corner. He cuts too early, does not see where the bend is going, heads straight for the outside and has to hit the brakes. Either he crashes or he loses time.

I made this post last year: https://forum.cyclingnews.com/threa...dy-merckx-thread.34086/page-1034#post-3041452

Great post. His problem is a combination of a lack of knowledge, experience and fear. There is a lot to work on but he can improve if he is willing to work on it. I hope he and his (future) team understand this. It's all to easy thinking others are better because they are gifted or doing it since they were a child. The issue is that he is performing much worse than average.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Pogacar has been impressive. Despite that, he has only taken 28 sec on remco so far on the road. 39 sec of which came from the echelon. The rest of his 54 sec gap comes from bonies. Strange sentence i know.

Pogacar looks better than the rest, and i have no doubt that once the big mountains come, he'll be putting on the afterburners and throwing minutes around. But take away that echelon, and Remco would be 'ahead' on the road so far.

Kinda strange, since Evenepoel has looked solid but not great so far.

Also i've been omitting Onley from GC long run, but he's young and had some decent results already.
Maybe he'll last the whole tour.

 

[Extinction]

Great post. His problem is a combination of a lack of knowledge, experience and fear. There is a lot to work on but he can improve if he is willing to work on it. I hope he and his (future) team understand this. It's all to easy thinking others are better because they are gifted or doing it since they were a child. The issue is that he is performing much worse than average.

Ivan Basso had the same problem, although he started racing at 12 years-old. So I don't think Remco's problem is lack of experience from the jounior ranks, but that he is simply not a dragon on the decents and curves. Basso had a certain Nibali educate him. Remco needs his Vincenzo.

 

[AlpRaid]

other than the potential of a bad day in the mountains taking remco out of podium contention, I think jorgeson is the real threat.

visma will not sacrifice him in a long range attack unless he is down on GC.

in the meantime, they may hardly need to use him or burn him out as last man to launch vingo. chances are pog will attack before then. vingo will try to match.

meanwhile jorgenson will simply need to follow remco. near the top, he can then drop him each time (much like at Dauphiné).

with no other flat ITTs to recoup time, the 39" lost on the first day may come into play (not for victory) but for the last step on the podium.

 

[greyclouds]

Pogacar has been impressive. Despite that, he has only taken 28 sec on remco so far on the road. 39 sec of which came from the echelon. The rest of his 54 sec gap comes from bonies. Strange sentence i know.

Pogacar looks better than the rest, and i have no doubt that once the big mountains come, he'll be putting on the afterburners and throwing minutes around. But take away that echelon, and Remco would be 'ahead' on the road so far.

Kinda strange, since Evenepoel has looked solid but not great so far.

Also i've been omitting Onley from GC long run, but he's young and had some decent results already.
Maybe he'll last the whole tour.

We haven’t had a single big mountain stage so this is exactly as expected.

I’m hoping the Remco can challenge Pogacar in some of the big mountain stages, possibly with a stage win from the GC group, but there should be not doubts that he (and everyone else) will shed minutes to Pogacar.

 

[KoopaCycling]

We haven’t had a single big mountain stage so this is exactly as expected.

I’m hoping the Remco can challenge Pogacar in some of the big mountain stages, possibly with a stage win from the GC group, but there should be not doubts that he (and everyone else) will shed minutes to Pogacar.

Except that i've seen Pogacar ride away from his rivals on nothing this past season. I mean logically you ain't wrong. But given how impressive he's been this season, and how he looks so far in this TDF it's a bit surprising. Especially since people been debating about the need for bonies, and why there aren't bonies for TT stages.

Don't get wrong. I'm thinking bonies won't matter this TDF, and Pogacar will put Vingegaard on 5-7 minutes and Remco on prob. even more.

I'm just saying, that on the road itself Remco is doing just fine so far despite looking just solid and not great.

 

[Unchained]

I like that in many of the camera shots of Remco today he is saying something positive to riders who are all bandaged and banged up!!

 

[Berniece]

other than the potential of a bad day in the mountains taking remco out of podium contention, I think jorgeson is the real threat.

visma will not sacrifice him in a long range attack unless he is down on GC.

in the meantime, they may hardly need to use him or burn him out as last man to launch vingo. chances are pog will attack before then. vingo will try to match.

meanwhile jorgenson will simply need to follow remco. near the top, he can then drop him each time (much like at Dauphiné).

with no other flat ITTs to recoup time, the 39" lost on the first day may come into play (not for victory) but for the last step on the podium.

We will probably never know because Jorgenson will make huge tempo for Vingegaard in the hopes of fatiguing Pogacar. Therefor not being able to follow Evenepoel

 

[KoopaCycling]

Stage finished all safe for Remco. Strange all those flat tires so close to the finish.
Van Aert rode a nice final, but Milan stronger still.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

other than the potential of a bad day in the mountains taking remco out of podium contention, I think jorgeson is the real threat.

visma will not sacrifice him in a long range attack unless he is down on GC.

in the meantime, they may hardly need to use him or burn him out as last man to launch vingo. chances are pog will attack before then. vingo will try to match.

meanwhile jorgenson will simply need to follow remco. near the top, he can then drop him each time (much like at Dauphiné).

with no other flat ITTs to recoup time, the 39" lost on the first day may come into play (not for victory) but for the last step on the podium.

"he can then drop him every time"... ok. Why didn't we think of that. Like in Dauphiné... when Evenepoel crashed and had allergies.

Visma needs to play Jorgenson as a trump card, like they did Roglic in 2022. Either that or he will be domestique for Vingegaard when it comes down to it. But i would be very much surprised if Jorgenson would turn out to be a threat in the mountains.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Vingo won't drop Pogi from his wheel with start/stop tempo. Visma knows that he needs to win w/kg battle. They can obviously try with Jorgenson attack or long-ranger combo with Wout but I'm sure at least once they will try PdB 2.0 (with their strong mountain doms). If they get beaten in this they will try other ways.

I think Vingo won't drop Pogacar this year no matter how he tries.

other than the potential of a bad day in the mountains taking remco out of podium contention, I think jorgeson is the real threat.

visma will not sacrifice him in a long range attack unless he is down on GC.

in the meantime, they may hardly need to use him or burn him out as last man to launch vingo. chances are pog will attack before then. vingo will try to match.

meanwhile jorgenson will simply need to follow remco. near the top, he can then drop him each time (much like at Dauphiné).

with no other flat ITTs to recoup time, the 39" lost on the first day may come into play (not for victory) but for the last step on the podium.

I think Jorgenson doesn't have the level to podium the Tour in the really high mountains. Last year he almost won Dauphine but wasn't close in the Tour, and this year he had a really bad day in the stage with the 3 45 minute plus climbs.
With Almeida's crash and Roglic underperforming Lipowizt is the biggest threat for Remco right now

 

[Red Rick]

Jorgenson is strangely punchy for his very tall frame and TT/GC rider archetype. So him doing very well until now doesn't need to translate to him being a threat for 3rd at all.

Evenepoel should be a big favorite for 3rd.

 

[Sciatic]

"he can then drop them every time"... ok. Why didn't we think of that. Like in Dauphiné... when Evenepoel crashed and had allergies.

Visma needs to play Jorgenson as a trump card, like they did Roglic in 2022. Either that or he will be domestique for Vingegaard when it comes down to it. But i would be very much surprised if Jorgenson would turn out to be a threat in the mountains.

This is his 1st GT right? So how Jorgenson will hold up in a heavily backloaded week 3 is new territory.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

This is his 1st GT right? So how Jorgenson will hold up in a heavily backloaded week 3 is new territory.

His 5th GT Lol, Jorgenson was 8th in the Tour last year.

 

[Sciatic]

His 5th GT Lol, Jorgenson was 8th in the Tour last year.

Oopsie

 

[topcat]

Jorgenson is strangely punchy for his very tall frame and TT/GC rider archetype. So him doing very well until now doesn't need to translate to him being a threat for 3rd at all.

Evenepoel should be a big favorite for 3rd.

Jorge will ride for Vingo. He is not close to Evenepoel when both are at their best.
It appears that positions 1, 2 and 3 are nailed down. I'll watch anyway because Visma will try everything to break Pog.