There aren’t many sprint points available where Cav can’t go, that will also be in places where other sprinters can. Sagan, Mathews and Colbrelli are going to have to try and get into breaks, pick up as many points as possible in the mountain stages.
Quickstep has 3 stages baring unforeseen circumstances that will have sprint finishes, 13, 19, and 21. Quickstep will be gunning to set up sprint finishes in 10, 12, and 13 for Cav to win, gain points, and in case he finishes OTL these are the last 3 stages he can win for 5 days. Matthews needs every point he can get over Colbrelli if Colbrelli is able to do this mountain performance again. Matthews has beat Colbrelli in a sprint at the finish every time but stage 3. If the breaks take the stage and intermediate points, Matthews won’t gain more points than Colbrelli and has no chance at green. Colbrelli has the potential to gain points on every remaining stage based off today.
Ya, looking at the route and where the intermediate points are, there's some chance to drop Cav if Bahrain and BikeExchange drill it on stages 10, 11, 14,18,19 and he should definitely be out on stage 16 which is one that Colbrelli and Matthews will target in a break I'd say. That and 14 are the two they're probably best off targeting for breaks as good chance of getting to the finish and winning there.
Of the remaining stages I think Cav can gain 200-250 points in the best case scenario. We’ll best case is him winning all the remain flat stages but that’s unlikely.
Stage 10 Cav can’t contest the intermediate sprint and baring bad luck will compete for points at the end. Big chance for break to make it.
Stage 11 Cav can contest the intermediate and even go in the break for it, which is likely with all 3 there.
Stage 12 Cav can contest the intermediate. Chance for break.
Stage 13 Cav can contest the intermediate. Sprint most likely.
Stage 14 Cav can contest the intermediate and even go in the break for it, which is likely with all 3 there.
Stage 15 Cav can contest the intermediate and Quickstep can even keep a break from forming until reaching the intermediate.
Stage 16 Cav highly unlikely to contest intermediate it could try breakaway.
Stage 17 Cav can contest the intermediate.
Stage 18 Cav can contest the intermediate.
Stage 19 Cav can contest intermediate and sprint most likely.
Stage 20 no points.
Stage 21 Cav can contest intermediate and sprint most likely.