Richard Carapaz discussion thread

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Hanging your hopes on Thomas hanging onto the Slovenians in the mountains and then beating them in the TT seems like a certain way to lose. Unless he finds a new level (even compared to 2018) he won't do either of those things.
I've been hearding on this forum that thomas is better than the slovenians on the itt, i really doubt about that.
 
Hanging your hopes on Thomas hanging onto the Slovenians in the mountains and then beating them in the TT seems like a certain way to lose. Unless he finds a new level (even compared to 2018) he won't do either of those things.
2018 Thomas is better than anything Roglic has ever done in Grand Tour. And at his age he likely isn't getting any better (obviously GT isn't either).
Pog is a different beast entirely as we don't know his ceiling.
 
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I've been hearding on this forum that thomas is better than the slovenians on the itt, i really doubt about that.
He was 4th in last year Worlds ITT on a not dissimilar route as the TTs in this year's Tour, both parcours and distance wise. He has also shown that his TTs at the end of GTs are still on the same level as those at the start. Roglic' TTs for example are often slightly worse in a 3rd week of GT. It is interesting however to see how Pogacar will do on the stage 20 TT this year, and if he can impress again like last year.
 
I do think carapaz to be the best chance for ineos. Let me start by saying, I can never root for a a big budget team sponsored by ecoterrorists. But for entertainment value, it would be interesting to see carapaz on audacious attacks from distance. Thomas and Porte are essentially good TT guys that can climb. The Slovenians are the same but better. But UAE and TJV teams are suspect. TJV have been a bit off all year. Sending long range attacks from carapaz and maybe even Tao may be the best card ineos have to play. Make the teams of the Slovenians work. If they fall apart, ineos wins. If they don’t, ineos can still attack and counterattack with Porte and Thomas. In any case, my hope is we don’t see the preordained mountain trains all tour. This is possible, because ineos doesn’t have the best rider, but will still have the best team. Fingers crossed!
 
2018 Thomas is better than anything Roglic has ever done in Grand Tour
2018 Thomas was only 3:22 better overall than 2018 Roglič. And in 2018 Roglič was not even going for GC for real - it was just an attempt to see which way to go from here on. He was more or less known for being a ski jumper than world beating cyclist while Thomas had by far the best team at his displosal. So I respectfully disagree with your statement.
 
He finished 4th by accident?
Please, be nice and include the second part of my sentence in your quote. It says "it was just an attempt to see which way to go from here on". So it's obviously not by accident but as explained in the part of the sentence that you decided not to quote: It was an attempt which would indicate whether he would focus his career on GC or stage hunting / TTs. So it was hardly peak Roglič in terms of GC if we can agree on that... Now if we can agree that 2018 TDF was not Roglič's peak GT performance and if we can agree that the overall gap to Thomas was 3:22, then the statement "2018 Thomas is better than anything Roglic has ever done in Grand Tour" by @BigCoward is at least very questionable if not completely disproven.
 
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2018 Thomas was only 3:22 better overall than 2018 Roglič. And in 2018 Roglič was not even going for GC for real - it was just an attempt to see which way to go from here on. He was more or less known for being a ski jumper than world beating cyclist while Thomas had by far the best team at his displosal. So I respectfully disagree with your statement.
Tell me which grand Tour Roglic has performed better than 2018 Thomas? Thomas could have taken more time that Tour whenever he wanted.
Regardless, It doesn't change the fact that Roglic has never done a great performance in a grand tour. He has blown a few, and scraped a few wins in the least important and least prepared for Grand Tour.
 
2018 clearly wasn't peak Roglic, or at least his performance in the Alps wasn't. But would I argue that Thomas in the 2018 Tour was better than any gt performance we have ever seen by Roglic? Absolutely yes.
 
Are we talking about the same Tour where he got a minute for free on 2 dudes who did the Giro and beat then by 2 minutes total? Also got beaten by both in the ITT.

Thomas makes a very strong case for being the 2nd most overrated rider on here. Strongly believe Carapaz is Ineos' better bet.
 
Are we talking about the same Tour where he got a minute for free on 2 dudes who did the Giro and beat then by 2 minutes total? Also got beaten by both in the ITT.

Thomas makes a very strong case for being the 2nd most overrated rider on here. Strongly believe Carapaz is Ineos' better bet.
I think Thomas is underrated on here (for a guy who has finished 1st and 2nd at Tour). Having said that, I think he is overrated in betting markets (around $6). Probably should be around $10. I'm not sure who has a better chance out of him and Carapaz.
 
Are we talking about the same Tour where he got a minute for free on 2 dudes who did the Giro and beat then by 2 minutes total? Also got beaten by both in the ITT.

Thomas makes a very strong case for being the 2nd most overrated rider on here. Strongly believe Carapaz is Ineos' better bet.
He sat up in the ITT, pretty much. But I'll give you on favourable circumstances, the TTT also helped. Even so, I think only Froome could have beaten him that year.
 
Hanging your hopes on Thomas hanging onto the Slovenians in the mountains and then beating them in the TT seems like a certain way to lose. Unless he finds a new level (even compared to 2018) he won't do either of those things.
You are very unlikely to win with Thomas or Porte, but none of the INEOS options are likely to win because they're simply not as strong as Poglic (presuming no unexpected form / health issues)

I'd never advocate all in on just one rider for Ineos at the Tour this year unless they have some ridiculous numbers we're not privy to. To win they need to put several riders into positions where they have some kind of chance of winning and force JV/UAE into situations where they have to let people do things they don't want them to.

Given Richie is going to take something like a 2min+ packet in the TT and didn't exactly decimate a flagging Roglic at the Vuelta (let alone a rampaging Pog ) you need to find ways to create a big buffer for him, if you want him to be a real factor and the only way that can really happen is if he rides aggressively while keeping other "threats" in reserve.

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Anyway. to keep this more Richie centric as we've gone a bit generic Ineos... looking forward to seeing how he goes through the rest of the TdS . Would expect him to keep attacking but maybe he picks his moments
 
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Nonsense.
The second point is only relevant if that is what we are discussing, but we weren't. And it remains to be seen, likely yes, fact? Not quite.
I could say, same as you, that your claim is nonsense.
To me, it was better performance. Roglic won that Vuelta quite comfortably, always in control, despite his weak team, being head and shoulders better than his main competition: Valverde, Pogacar, Quintana and Lopez.
I couldn't say the same for Thomas, who won against tired Dumoulin and Froome and inexperienced Roglic at the time. Without so strong team, and with fresh opponents I don't see him winning that Tour.
 
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I could say, same as you, that your claim is nonsense.
To me, it was better performance. Roglic won that Vuelta quite comfortably, always in control, despite his weak team, being head and shoulders better than his main competition: Valverde, Pogacar, Quintana and Lopez.
I couldn't say the same for Thomas, who won against tired Dumoulin and Froome and inexperienced Roglic at the time. Without so strong team, and with fresh opponents I don't see him winning that Tour.
I think you will find you are in a minority of 1.
Saying he 'only beat tired Froome and Dumoulin' when Roglic only beat an OAP and a spotty teenager is a bit rich.
 
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