Richard Carapaz discussion thread

[Froome]

I think you will find you are in a minority of 1.
Saying he 'only beat tired Froome and Dumoulin when Roglic only beat an OAP and a spotty teenager is a bit rich.

Blanco is right.
The best thomas (thomas of 2018), is not better than this roglic that isn't a ski jumper. Just see the numbers of roglic is capable vs the best numbers thomas ever did.
And yes, thomas just won the tour 2018 because froome we're tired of doing 3 consecutive tours, also dumoulin was in the giro, so her best competition we're tired. Thomas did nothing relevant since his second place on tour 2019.

 

[Gigs_98]

Are we talking about the same Tour where he got a minute for free on 2 dudes who did the Giro and beat then by 2 minutes total? Also got beaten by both in the ITT.

Thomas makes a very strong case for being the 2nd most overrated rider on here. Strongly believe Carapaz is Ineos' better bet.

The argument was about Thomas in 2018, not Thomas now. I also don't think Thomas' Tour win was up there with the overall strongest Tour performances, it's just that I don't see a better performance by Roglic. The 2019 Vuelta can be the only one that is even in the discussion and even about that one I disagree. People are now overreacting about how good that field was because Pogacar was in it, ignoring how much he improved from 2019 to 2020. Also "2 dudes who did the Giro" is really selling short Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin who in the process were comfortably better than Landa, Bardet, Kruijswijk,... and on the way to comfortably beat our beloved shark of messina. So yeah, I think Thomas' 2018 Tour was better than you give him credit for.

All that being said, I also think Carapaz is Ineos' best bet for this years Tour.

 

[BigCoward]

Blanco is right.
The best thomas (thomas of 2018), is not better than this roglic that isn't a ski jumper. Just see the numbers of roglic is capable vs the best numbers thomas ever did.
And yes, thomas just won the tour 2018 because froome we're tired of doing 3 consecutive tours, also dumoulin was in the giro, so her best competition we're tired. Thomas did nothing relevant since his second place on tour 2019.

For about the 59th time, we are discussing whether 2018 Thomas was better than any Grand Tour Roglic. My position is that he was, significantly.
So to keep it on track do you agree or disagree?
My position in general is Pog is clear favourite, with Roglic, GT and Carapaz on the next level. I am not remotely convinced by Roglic being anywhere near as good at 3 week tours as he is at 1 week tours. Though I am impressed that he is trying something different with his approach this year.

 

[BigCoward]

The argument was about Thomas in 2018, not Thomas now. I also don't think Thomas' Tour win was up there with the overall strongest Tour performances, it's just that I don't see a better performance by Roglic. The 2019 Vuelta can be the only one that is even in the discussion and even about that one I disagree. People are now overreacting about how good that field was because Pogacar was in it, ignoring how much he improved from 2019 to 2020. Also "2 dudes who did the Giro" is really selling short Chris Froome and Tom Dumoulin who in the process were comfortably better than Landa, Bardet, Kruijswijk,... and on the way to comfortably beat our beloved shark of messina. So yeah, I think Thomas' 2018 Tour was better than you give him credit for.

All that being said, I also think Carapaz is Ineos' best bet for this years Tour.

I agree, but partially because of Thomas being in the tour, Roglic and Pog have to worry about Carapaz in the mountains while also worrying about the potential damage GT could cause in the 2 TT's.

 

[Froome]

For about the 59th time, we are discussing whether 2018 Thomas was better than any Grand Tour Roglic. My position is that he was, significantly.
So to keep it on track do you agree or disagree?
My position in general is Pog is clear favourite, with Roglic, GT and Carapaz on the next level. I am not remotely convinced by Roglic being anywhere near as good at 3 week tours as he is at 1 week tours. Though I am impressed that he is trying something different with his approach this year.

It's easy clarify that statement. Like i said, it's a question of seeing the numbers. For example, the numbers of roglic on vuelta 2019 are better than the numbers produced by thomas on tour 2019.
This thread is not power data estimated but he're we go. Santuario acebo-roglic did 6.49 w/kg on alto de acebo, a effort of 26 minutes.
Los machucos-6.4 w/kg in a effort of 21 min.
Mas de la costa. 6.7 w/kg in 16 min.
Now look at the performances of thomas on tour 2018. Do really think that a rider that climbs alpe d'huez in 41 min and 16 seconds stands a chance against Roglic? It's the 109th best time ever on alpe d huez! Even porte on alpe d huez 2013 did a better time working for froome!
He never did a great performance in terms of numbers on the mountains of tour 2018.

 

[Froome]

I agree, but partially because of Thomas being in the tour, Roglic and Pog have to worry about Carapaz in the mountains while also worrying about the potential damage GT could cause in the 2 TT's.

In terms of itts, i have indications that Roglic is better than thomas. Roglic won 2 itts on giro 2019, one itt on vuelta 2019, one itt on vuelta 2020.
Thomas never won a itt in a grand tour, and he lost tour de france 2018 last itt against a tired froome, and also dumoulin.

 

[BigCoward]

In terms of itts, i have indications that Roglic is better than thomas. Roglic won 2 itts on giro 2019, one itt on vuelta 2019, one itt on vuelta 2020.
Thomas never won a itt in a grand tour, and he lost tour de france 2018 last itt against a tired froome, and also dumoulin.

Lovely stuff, does that mean that Roglic who collapsed last year in the late TT at the tour and historically has been weaker in TT towards the end of Grand Tours won't be worried about someone like GT on the TT's? Being better was never mentioned, though i personally beleive, all things being equal, GT is a better grand tour TT rider than Roglic, though there isn't much in it.
You need to actually respond to what people wrote, not how you decide to interpret them.

 

[Netserk]

In terms of itts, i have indications that Roglic is better than thomas. Roglic won 2 itts on giro 2019, one itt on vuelta 2019, one itt on vuelta 2020.
Thomas never won a itt in a grand tour, and he lost tour de france 2018 last itt against a tired froome, and also dumoulin.

CQ Ranking - Tour de France, Stage 1 : Düsseldorf (GER) I.T.T.

CQ Ranking is the world's leading cycling ranking and extensive results database. Also known as Cycling Quotient.

cqranking.com

 

[bNator]

Lovely

Lovely stuff, does that mean that Roglic who collapsed last year in the late TT at the tour and historically has been weaker in TT towards the end of Grand Tours won't be worried about someone like GT on the TT's? Being better was never mentioned, though i personally beleive, all things being equal, GT is a better grand tour TT rider than Roglic, though there isn't much in it.
You need to actually respond to what people wrote, not how you decide to interpret them.

Let me respond to what you wrote then. You are asking us to provide you an example when was Roglič better in GT than Thomas in 2018 TDF. The answer is 2019 Vuelta and 2020 TDF. We can support this answer by:

1. Roglič's watt numbers in Vuelta 2019 compared to Thomas's climbing times in 2018 TDF.
2. Climbing times and watt numbers in 2020 TDF, which were some of the best we have ever seen.
3. The fact that Thomas dealt with tired competition.
4. The fact that he wasn't even that much better than 2018 TDF Roglič.

Now that being said, I haven't heard any arguments from your side except for very clearly stating what you "believe" or what "your position" is. Your beliefs and positions are not arguments.

What I can agree with you is that Thomas won 2018 TDF with more control than Roglič ever won any of his tours (Vuelta 2019 could be debated). But that deosnt mean he was better (which is what you said) - that could just mean that the competition and other circumstances (team, TTT, crashes, crosswinds, etc.) were more in his favour...

 

[gregrowlerson]

Roglic 2020 Tour is probably better than Thomas 2018 Tour, however, I wouldn't be going off watts, since circumstances in cycling seem to have changed somewhat over the past three years.

Also, I think that both Dumoulin and Froome beat Thomas that year if they don't ride the Giro.

 

[Froome]

CQ Ranking - Tour de France, Stage 1 : Düsseldorf (GER) I.T.T.

CQ Ranking is the world's leading cycling ranking and extensive results database. Also known as Cycling Quotient.

cqranking.com

Since 2018, but it's my fault, i didn't expressed really well.

 

[Blanco]

I think you will find you are in a minority of 1.

Really? Doesn't look like that to me..

 

[Vasilis]

It's pointless to figure out if 2019 Roglic or 2018 Thomas was better when it's the 2021 version of both racing. I also don't believe that you can reliably say who is better based on power numbers, I think the only way is an actual, real life, on the road head-to-head, and we only have to wait a couple more weeks for that.

 

[BigCoward]

Really? Doesn't look like that to me..

Ah well, people used 'facts' to decide brexit was a good idea, they can certainly twist them to convince themselves that Roglic is better than he is.

 

[Blanco]

Ah well, people used 'facts' to decide brexit was a good idea, they can certainly twist them to convince themselves that Roglic is better than he is.

You got it wrong again, Roglic is as good as he is, but better than Thomas

 

[Rackham]

Isn't this thread about Carapaz? i.e. the wildest "form finding at the right time" rider I can think of. He was absolutely nowhere in Catalonia, almost invisible in Basque Country (he even fell going uphill on a climb!!) whilst the Slovenians went mano-à-mano for the overall win & he got himself disqualified in Liège for doing a supertuck when he was doomed breakaway rider anyway.

Now look at him, he's become a monster again. IMO it gives Ineos a massive headache because who rides for who? i.e. neither Porte, Thomas or Carapaz will go into the Tour thinking they'll domestique for a teammate. Their DS is going to have to make snap judgement calls & choose preferential treatment for someone in the heat of battle. Good luck with that when there's a Tour de France in play.

 

[ice&fire]

Isn't this thread about Carapaz? i.e. the wildest "form finding at the right time" rider I can think of. He was absolutely nowhere in Catalonia, almost invisible in Basque Country (he even fell going uphill on a climb!!) whilst the Slovenians went mano-à-mano for the overall win & he got himself disqualified in Liège for doing a supertuck when he was doomed breakaway rider anyway.

Now look at him, he's become a monster again. IMO it gives Ineos a massive headache because who rides for who? i.e. neither Porte, Thomas or Carapaz will go into the Tour thinking they'll domestique for a teammate. Their DS is going to have to make snap judgement calls & choose preferential treatment for someone in the heat of battle. Good luck with that when there's a Tour de France in play.

The did OK in 2018 and 2019 with two leaders.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Thomas was imperious in the 2018 Tour. He had everything under control, every step of the way, always perfectly placed, always making the right decision. He barely seemed to go into the red at all, just perfectly balancing his efforts between
gaining time and conserving energy. I don't ever think I've seen a Tour ever won more easily, in terms of having it all his own way, all the time. He was up against 2 guys tired from the Giro, sure, but his effort that year cannot really be compared with peak Roglic, because he was never seemingly going all out, at any point.

 

[BigCoward]

Now look at him, he's become a monster again. IMO it gives Ineos a massive headache because who rides for who? i.e. neither Porte, Thomas or Carapaz will go into the Tour thinking they'll domestique for a teammate. Their DS is going to have to make snap judgement calls & choose preferential treatment for someone in the heat of battle. Good luck with that when there's a Tour de France in play.

I don't think Porte has any illusions about his role, unless he is still thereabouts if the 2 leaders have issues.
TGH maybe more of an issue, as a GT winner in the last 8 months he has the right to expect a bit of protection.
Carapaz current form would probably mean he would would be sole leader elsewhere. However it is a British team and Thomas has finished 1st and 2nd in his last 2 stage races, and the route suits him more.

 

[Rackham]

The did OK in 2018 and 2019 with two leaders.

They now have three leaders whilst back in 2018 & 2019, they had the strongest rider in the race (Thomas 2018 & Bernal 2019). It gave tactical room for manoeuvre.

Yet this year, there are two riders above the Ineos line-up on the power scale, i.e. the presence of Roglic & Pogacar means Ineos cannot just allow their guys to race each other & say "may the best win", because odds are they won't. Not when Pogacar rides away (for example) & in that small favorites group with three Ineos riders everyone looks at each other & asks "who's going to do the work & chase?"

I just think it's going to add some (much needed) juiciness to the Tour.

 

[BlueRoads]

Hart really has no reason whatsoever to ask for a leader's role. He hasn't shown that ability this year. Porte's 3rd Tour place can be rated higher in my opinion than Hart's Giro win.
Keep Carapaz, Thomas and Porte in play in the first week and decide after the first mountain stage whether one of them is too weak to be a leader this time and if yes make him work for the others. I wouldn't desperately try to keep all three of them in play when it becomes clear one isn't up to it. But otherwise there is no need to decide on one leader, like has been said often before, attacks with three guys are Ineos' best option to win.

 

[Pinot's goat]

Hart really has no reason whatsoever to ask for a leader's role. He hasn't shown that ability this year. Porte's 3rd Tour place can be rated higher in my opinion than Hart's Giro win.
Keep Carapaz, Thomas and Porte in play in the first week and decide after the first mountain stage whether one of them is too weak to be a leader this time and if yes make him work for the others. I wouldn't desperately try to keep all three of them in play when it becomes clear one isn't up to it. But otherwise there is no need to decide on one leader, like has been said often before, attacks with three guys are Ineos' best option to win.

TGH was close to the other GC contenders at the Dauphine despite working as a domestique and there is still 2 weeks to the Tour to improve form.

 

[Cookster15]

Ineos wealth of strength vs Rog and Pog individual brilliance. I think Ineos might be planning an ambush. But TTs can likely decide the TdF outcome.

 

[solo80k]

Ineos wealth of strength vs Rog and Pog individual brilliance. I think Ineos might be planning an ambush. But TTs can likely decide the TdF outcome.

Ambush is their only chance... Carapaz has balls needed for such crazy move, but he needs to find good legs in the right moment as well.

 

[gregrowlerson]

If Thomas, Carapaz and Porte are all fairly close on GC, and Pogacar or Roglic attacks, then Porte will work for the others; it is more his mentality (and desire) to be a domestique.

Ineos should try hard though to not have Porte lose time needlessly in the early stages, as Thomas or Carapaz could lose minutes unexpectedly, and roles would need to be reversed.

I'd be trying to keep Hart protected too, but this might depend on which team is in yellow and doing much of the work.

We really won't know a lot more about the Ineos leadership situation until after the first ITT (and seeing who has lost time in unlucky fashion on first few stages).