Richard Carapaz discussion thread

[Cookster15]

I hope Carapaz can put the blowtorch to the Slovenians too but I think we need to tone down the hype. Lets see where he is after the first TT.

 

[limak_]

I hope Carapaz can put the blowtorch to the Slovenians too but I think we need to tone down the hype. Lets see where he is after the first TT.

Is there really that much hype around him? I think it's more like he's an exceptionally likeable guy and just because of that so many people wish he did well in the Tour (all the more, he showed he's in a good shape).

 

[CyclistAbi]

to take care of Richie's body after hard trainings and to cook a proper rice cakes for him

Obviously no pun intended.

P.S. Hard not to like the guy.

 

[Cookster15]

Is there really that much hype around him? I think it's more like he's an exceptionally likeable guy and just because of that so many people wish he did well in the Tour (all the more, he showed he's in a good shape).

Yes there is hype in this forum. There was hype one year ago about his chances in the stage 20 TT going for KOM. I don't doubt that he is likeable.

 

[will-10]

If you think Carapaz is hyped, maybe check out the Slovenian threads, let alone Remco.

I hope he has a good Tour mainly because I think the Carapaz-Thomas combo is our best chance of an exciting race that isn't just Pog v Rog on the last climb.

 

[Bolder]

I hope Carapaz can put the blowtorch to the Slovenians too but I think we need to tone down the hype. Lets see where he is after the first TT.

I don't see hype but he is the best recent GC rider outside of the Slovenians, and you could make a case that he's equal to Roglic based on their head to head performances (when going for GC)

 

[Cookster15]

I don't see hype but he is the best recent GC rider outside of the Slovenians, and you could make a case that he's equal to Roglic based on their head to head performances (when going for GC)

It was the 2020 TdF that I noticed the hype - he was going to win KOM remember. I agree he is the best hope of spoiling the Slovenians this year. Regarding Roglic, if Roglic is in similar shape to 2020 TdF then Carapaz will need to be a much higher level than we saw at either 2019 Giro or 2020 Vuelta. Simply because the TdF is normally raced at a higher level. This is because the Tour is the race the sponsors and teams most want to win due to its appeal beyond the sport of cycling.

 

[Cookster15]

If you think Carapaz is hyped, maybe check out the Slovenian threads, let alone Remco.

I hope he has a good Tour mainly because I think the Carapaz-Thomas combo is our best chance of an exciting race that isn't just Pog v Rog on the last climb.

Agree on Carapaz remain unconvinced on Thomas. Carapaz was being hyped here during the 2020 TdF - people suggesting he could win the KoM as a Ineos consolation prize for losing Bernal. The subject was dropped like a hot potato before he even crossed the stage 20 finish line . Then in hindsight everyone said he wasn't prepared for the TdF. That might be true but the hype was real. Best I can say the support was out of hope rather than good judgement.

This year good judgement might say Carapaz has a better chance - strongest team and he is in better form. But I will be surprised if he can drop either of the Slovenians in the mountains (or teammate Richie Porte for that matter). But he is going to have to drop them because he will lose ground to both Slovenians in the two TTs - inevitable. It all comes back to the strength of Ineos's team and what tactics they employ and on which stages.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I don't see much hype regarding Slovenians. The reason they get mentioned occasionally is based on what they have achieved in the past two to three years.

As for Carapaz doing 40km of climbing per week, training rides. I don't buy that. If we say his rest is only 1 day per week then he would need to do around 6.5km of climbing per day. And i doubt each day is the same amount. Bottom line he would need to climb Mount Everest around twice per week with his bike. No amount of rice cake enables you to do that.

P.S. And who is Richie at Ineos. Is it Richie or is it Richie?

 

[Cookster15]

As for Carapaz doing 40km of climbing per week, training rides. I don't buy that.

I don't buy it either. To get a sense of Carapaz's claim I checked LRP's Strava profile. Porte's biggest week of climbing in the last 12 months was 23km of climbing in the week of May 10 to 16 - at Tenerife. 40km? I very much doubt that.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Can't say I've noticed much outright expectation that Carapaz will outclimb the Slovenians, just some hopeful comments that he may be able to shake the race up a bit. As a former Giro winner in a strong team, who can't rely on TTs, he seems the best hope in that regard, so I'll happily hop aboard that 'hype train' as it tentatively edges out of the siding.

 

[will-10]

P.S. And who is Richie at Ineos. Is it Richie or is it Richie?

This was clarified on G's podcast: Richie is Richie, and Richie is Billy.

 

[limak_]

As for Carapaz doing 40km of climbing per week, training rides. I don't buy that. If we say his rest is only 1 day per week then he would need to do around 6.5km of climbing per day. And i doubt each day is the same amount. Bottom line he would need to climb Mount Everest around twice per week with his bike. No amount of rice cake enables you to do that.

I don't buy it either. To get a sense of Carapaz's claim I checked LRP's Strava profile. Porte's biggest week of climbing in the last 12 months was 23km of climbing in the week of May 10 to 16 - at Tenerife. 40km? I very much doubt that.

Exactly, those can't be real values obviously. Anyway, I haven't heard so far of any pros doing almost 8hrs and 5km of climbing every single day for a week.
His English is only like so so (he probably spends too much time in Ecuador instead of training with his British mates) and I think he just went wrong with the English number names and he meant sth like 35hrs and 20km climbing I guess

 

[Cagalitroso]

I don't buy it either. To get a sense of Carapaz's claim I checked LRP's Strava profile. Porte's biggest week of climbing in the last 12 months was 23km of climbing in the week of May 10 to 16 - at Tenerife. 40km? I very much doubt that.

Since Carapaz is not a native English speaker and you can notice in that portion of the video that he stumbles to pick the number ,most probably than not he "just" meant 14.000 . You are hardly being astute detectives by noticing he is not climbing the equivalent to 20-25 HC summits by week.

Saying that Carapaz was "hyped" because people thought he had a chance of winning the KOM jersey makes as much sense as saying Croatia was hyped because people thought they have a chance to win the WC the day of the final., that is almost by definition the opposite to hype.

 

[Cookster15]

Carapaz isn’t hyped this year but I am still interested to see how he climbs mano-o-mano against Rog and Pog in this TdF. But he was definitely hyped last year - even in the stage that Michał Kwiatkowski won because he was no GC threat. Feel free to check the threads.

Been here long enough for my hype meter to be well calibrated. The usual know it all’s go quiet on subjects when they are proven wrong. But I am looking forward to him climbing with the best this year.

But I still have big questions on Carapaz against the clock compared to last year’s podium finishers.

 

[Cian]

It was the 2020 TdF that I noticed the hype - he was going to win KOM remember. I agree he is the best hope of spoiling the Slovenians this year. Regarding Roglic, if Roglic is in similar shape to 2020 TdF then Carapaz will need to be a much higher level than we saw at either 2019 Giro or 2020 Vuelta. Simply because the TdF is normally raced at a higher level. This is because the Tour is the race the sponsors and teams most want to win due to its appeal beyond the sport of cycling.

He was leading the KOM classification after 19 stages. It was hardly hype to say he could win it at that stage.

 

[memyselfandI]

But I still have big questions on Carapaz against the clock compared to last year’s podium finishers.

Well he does not have much money in tt against Pog and Rog, but - and so - it looks like he's going to work it out in the mountains as much possible.

 

[Leinster]

Yes there is hype in this forum. There was hype one year ago about his chances in the stage 20 TT going for KOM. I don't doubt that he is likeable.

I wouldn't say there was hype about his KOM chances last year, it's just that going into the TT he was the only one with a mathematical chance of catching Pogacar, who already had the white jersey locked in (and in the end, got the yellow too; remember the mannequins on the Champs?).

It's hard not to "hype" the GC (co-)leader of the Ineos team going into a Grand Tour. He is, by most people's measure, one of the top 5 contenders to win the whole thing (and at least one of the others is his teammate).

 

[limak_]

Rog and Pog looking at each other when Carapaz attacks and assuming they can make up potential losses in TTs, is the only chance for Richie to do anything in this Tour. Also that's why I rank him higher than G, who's imo gonna be marked more strictly, because of his TT ability.

 

[Põhja Konn]

It's just my impression, but from what I've seen over the last few years, him and Pogacar look like the most natural GT racers among the main TdF favourites this year. Both have shown that their greatest strenghts come out over a three-week race. Roglic for all his versatily has looked the most dominant in shorter stage races, while seemingly being forced further out of his comfort zone in order to handle a grand tour compared to the other two.

Still, its difficult see past at least one of the Slovenians winning this Tour. Thomas might even be a safer bet to podium for INEOS, but if they want to win, they need to back Carapaz, as his natural ability over three weeks together with INEOS's team strenght will probably be the only thing that can overcome both of the Slovenians, barring crashes and other forms of bad luck. He is not the biggest favourite, rather the most likely joker in the pack, but he really needs to limit his losses in TT-s well to be able to play out that role.

 

[Vasilis]

The Slovenians haven't raced against any other favourite for a while now so I really don't think we can say that they are better (or worse) than any other contender. Carapaz was clearly in his best form of the year so far in Suisse though, but we can't compare that to anyone who wasn't racing there. Pogacar has looked good all year and recently too (even though Slovenia does not really show much of anything, except that he's not in bad shape), but regarding Roglic, who knows? He's probably well prepared, but how can we claim for sure that rider x will ride up mountains faster than rider y?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's just my impression, but from what I've seen over the last few years, him and Pogacar look like the most natural GT racers among the main TdF favourites this year.

They are very similar riders actually. Almost the same height and weight, very strong climbing, strong TT, fast finish, attacking style (except when Rogla has overly strong team).

 

[limak_]

The Slovenians haven't raced against any other favourite for a while now so I really don't think we can say that they are better (or worse) than any other contender. Carapaz was clearly in his best form of the year so far in Suisse though, but we can't compare that to anyone who wasn't racing there. Pogacar has looked good all year and recently too (even though Slovenia does not really show much of anything, except that he's not in bad shape), but regarding Roglic, who knows? He's probably well prepared, but how can we claim for sure that rider x will ride up mountains faster than rider y?

Of course we can say that Slovenians are two biggest favourites and we have every right to assume they're probably the strongest. That's because we base our assumptions on longer period of time than just these last two months, when we indeed haven't had a chance to see them in action.

Roglic was in a great shape during the spring races, the route suits him very well, we can see he's constantly progressing from one season to another both physically and tactically. He's chosen not to race for these 2 months purposely, not because of any injuries or other wekanesses. His team decided that preparing in a controlled envinronment of training camps will be beneficial for him, to show at his best in the Tour.

And personally I don't need any extra validation in a form of good performances in TdS or Dauphine. He's already an established GT contender with 2 GTs in his palmares, who almost won last year's Tour. Obviously, we can't make any claims with 100% certainty that he's faster than x or y rider. But this applies to any other rider and the fact that one beat another in Dauphine doesn't mean the same will happen in the Tour. Putting Roglic only as a 4th or 5th favourite (just like CN did) just due to his absence in recent races (not caused by injuries) is kinda naive for me.

 

[Blanco]

Been here long enough for my hype meter to be well calibrated.

Well, it seems that only your hype meter shows that Carapaz was hyped. Others have different calibration perhaps...

 

[Vasilis]

Of course we can say that Slovenians are two biggest favourites and we have every right to assume they're probably the strongest. That's because we base our assumptions on longer period of time than just these last two months, when we indeed haven't had a chance to see them in action.

Roglic was in a great shape during the spring races, the route suits him very well, we can see he's constantly progressing from one season to another both physically and tactically. He's chosen not to race for these 2 months purposely, not because of any injuries or other wekanesses. His team decided that preparing in a controlled envinronment of training camps will be beneficial for him, to show at his best in the Tour.

And personally I don't need any extra validation in a form of good performances in TdS or Dauphine. He's already an established GT contender with 2 GTs in his palmares, who almost won last year's Tour. Obviously, we can't make any claims with 100% certainty that he's faster than x or y rider. But this applies to any other rider and the fact that one beat another in Dauphine doesn't mean the same will happen in the Tour. Putting Roglic only as a 4th or 5th favourite (just like CN did) just due to his absence in recent races (not caused by injuries) is kinda naive for me.

Oh I certainly count him among the favourites, no question there, based on the history you mentioned. My point is that we can't just say that it will be impossible to beat the Slovenians outside of ambushing them because they are just stronger. Of course they are favourites but people talk about them as if they've already finished 1-2. Just look at Bernal at the Giro. He might have seemed unbeatable and people didn't really consider trying anymore, but then when it turned out that he wasn't completely invulnerable, it was too late. With this view you've already lost before you start the race.