Richard Carapaz discussion thread

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Of course we can say that Slovenians are two biggest favourites and we have every right to assume they're probably the strongest. That's because we base our assumptions on longer period of time than just these last two months, when we indeed haven't had a chance to see them in action.

Roglic was in a great shape during the spring races, the route suits him very well, we can see he's constantly progressing from one season to another both physically and tactically. He's chosen not to race for these 2 months purposely, not because of any injuries or other wekanesses. His team decided that preparing in a controlled envinronment of training camps will be beneficial for him, to show at his best in the Tour.

And personally I don't need any extra validation in a form of good performances in TdS or Dauphine. He's already an established GT contender with 2 GTs in his palmares, who almost won last year's Tour. Obviously, we can't make any claims with 100% certainty that he's faster than x or y rider. But this applies to any other rider and the fact that one beat another in Dauphine doesn't mean the same will happen in the Tour. Putting Roglic only as a 4th or 5th favourite (just like CN did) just due to his absence in recent races (not caused by injuries) is kinda naive for me.
Oh I certainly count him among the favourites, no question there, based on the history you mentioned. My point is that we can't just say that it will be impossible to beat the Slovenians outside of ambushing them because they are just stronger. Of course they are favourites but people talk about them as if they've already finished 1-2. Just look at Bernal at the Giro. He might have seemed unbeatable and people didn't really consider trying anymore, but then when it turned out that he wasn't completely invulnerable, it was too late. With this view you've already lost before you start the race.
 
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Carapaz was hyped last year prior to the TT. Not this year. It would be ironic if Rog and Pog looked at each other whilst Richie rode up the road into yellow again ;)
I mean, you can keep saying it, but the only discussion around Carapaz for that TT was how slow he was going to ride to the base of Planche to have a crack at keeping the KOM. Long before Bernal dropped out it was clear Carapaz was not going to contend after being subbed into the team last minute.

 
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If (big if) GT can put time into the 2 slovenians in the first TT (I wouldn't expect much, max 30-45 seconds even in his best form) it will make the tour fantastic as this opens up so many more tactical options to utilise Carapaz.
Don´t see Thomas putting time to the two slovenions in the TT. But even if can´t do it, Carapaz role will be important. I think he will be the one for the long range attacks. Like Bernal in 2019..
 
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At most I think he (Thomas) can put 15'' in to Roglič in the first ITT and maybe up to 45'' in to Pogačar. I think it's more likely that he and Roglič will be close to each other and Pogačar within 20''-30''. Bonus seconds alone will neutralise most of that.

No matter what team you have in front of you, Portet and Ventoux are beasts where differences will be made.

So I think Ineos will be forced to attack, with Thomas staying in the wheels of the Slovenians.
 
At most I think he (Thomas) can put 15'' in to Roglič in the first ITT and maybe up to 45'' in to Pogačar. I think it's more likely that he and Roglič will be close to each other and Pogačar within 20''-30''. Bonus seconds alone will neutralise most of that.

No matter what team you have in front of you, Portet and Ventoux are beasts where differences will be made.

So I think Ineos will be forced to attack, with Thomas staying in the wheels of the Slovenians.
I would say Pogacar, Thomas and Roglic in TT will be more or less equal.. Carapaz will be the only one who will lose significant time in the TT out of the top 4 favourites...
 
It looked like Carapaz has improved his time trialing significantly. Nonetheless he should lose time in the tts compared to Pogacar, Roglic, Thomas and Porte.
I would expect him to lose something like 40 seconds to Thomas in the first one, and about a minute in the second one. Pogacar is unpredictable for me, and Roglic should be better than Thomas at least in the first tt.
Most important for Thomas and Porte and also Roglic will be to make it to the second time trial. :confused:
Really, I think the time trials are very hard to predict for the main contenders this year. It will depend very much on the form, general and form of the day, I think. Carapaz isn't someone like Gaudu where you know he will lose significant time for sure in the tts. Thomas is very strong on his day, but I'm not fully convinced he will be at his best. With Roglic I'm not sure about the later event, and like I said, Pogacar is completely unpredictable for me in this area. Porte can be relied on, but probably won't win.
From my first look it seemed at least the first time trial is quite technical?
 
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