Re: Re:
	
		
			
				Night Rider said:
			
		
	
	
		
		
			
	
		
			
				Irondan said:
			
		
	
	
		
		
			
	
		
			
				Son of Amsterhammer said:
			
		
	
	
		
		
			He needed those 1.45mins. Badly. Unless he is in the best form of his life, a podium is highly unlikely. Which is a shame for him. I hope it doesn't turn out that way though.
		
		
	 
On the other hand, a top 10 is a great result for LRP at his first go as a leader in the tour.
		
 
		
	 
Effective leader in 2014. He went in to the 2014 tour as the back up leader to Froome and that was enacted on stage 5 when Froome crashed. Porte was sitting 2nd and cracked big time in the mountains.
He does not have the strength, physically or mentally to last a three week tour.
		
 
		
	 
You're missing the point.
Astana have two grand Tour winners. They can podium this race but most would say, Aru is maybe 4th place at best.
Contador can easily podium and win. Nobody said he was favourite though. We know he believes he can win the race. But he has evidence to support his goal. Granite hard evidence.
Movistar made the podium with two riders last year. They are free to believe they can win, because if most fans and commentators have their say, only Quintana has been touted as capable of beating Chris Froome on form. I don't believe that, but its how 2013 and 2015 panned out with Nairo putting Froome into serious trouble in the third week last year and Movistar actually attacking. Don't forget, on this forum they've been accused in previous years as being boring (2013 and 2014) - I never believed that and they did expose Froome on Alpe d'Huez.
I will explain this clearly. In Australia, SBS broadcast the Tour. We have Matthew Keenan and Robbie McEwen (former green jersey winner) commentate the early part of each stage and with 40-50km to go, they hand over to Phil and Paul. 
This year, after Richie left Sky, he's been spoken of a LOT by certain SBS staff, the broadcasting staff. Their online written journalists don't play his chances up, but the broadcasting ones do. They talk about Aussies. Non stop. I can only imagine the American viewers witness the same thing with Tejay. We've been hearing about Tejay for years.
Why such an emphasis on English speaking riders? Because there is subtle national favouritism in many nations. 
Do you think on Italian tv they don't talk about Nibali, or Aru and their chances more than other riders? How do you think the Spanish handle things? Or the British with Froome? I dare say they talk their riders up. 
Now imagine how those riders HANDLE the headlines. Froome is fine, he's won. Same with Contador and Quintana. They've been there, done that, they can handle the results. 
But what happens when you're HYPED as a winner and the literal crap hits the fan? It happened to Vincenzo Nibali. He was being attacked and pressured quite heavily during the Giro. Yet he overcame that. He stepped up and attacked and it paid. 
I don't OVER HYPE anyone because that ADDED pressure is never conducive to great performances. It's often too much for most to handle. I know who should perform based on historic results and the parcours...so I use that as a basis for an estimation. But I don't sit there every darn grand tour and state a rider will win...no, I give him the opportunity to get to the third week, then see how he goes. 
You will find many of those over hyping Porte and Tejay have under estimated riders like Contador and others...they get caught out by me continually. Their language is a dead set giveaway. Matthew Keenan does this a lot. He slips up with his individual stage predictions a lot, and Robbie McEwen corrects him. MOST non cycling fans rely on that man's interpretation to figure out what is going on. Seasoned fans get a good giggle and laugh, because they know he's stark raving mad!
SO in order to protect a riders mental/emotional state, I don't believe in telling them they're the ants pants, bees knees or the ducks nuts. Did you know they do that to our swimmers at the Olympics? I had to watch a teenager cry because she believed a silver medal was a FAILURE. Why? The press and everyone had over hyped this young woman into believing she would win GOLD. Nothing else.
I am advocating setting the BAR at a REASONABLE level. Richie really should be aiming for the King of the Mountains jersey. BMC have really messed this up...the smart move was the Giro for the WHOLE TEAM of leaders, do that, see what happens, then maybe ride the Tour and go for the KOM and stages. Then ride the Vuelta for a win if the Giro went well for one of their leaders.
Actually listen to everything the riders voice, but also their team. BMC over stepped their mark.
Anyway...I know they're not going to listen. But if Richie does fade between stages 10-12, he should be given a few days off, then asked to go for a stage and KOM. He can IMO, get that jersey. But podium? No. Tenth would be above and beyond what he can expect. Having everyone tell him he can win or podium is doing the man a lot of mental damage...pay attention and you'll see it.